Lake Effect Snow Warning 5, NWS Buffalo, NY

334 
WWUS41 KBUF 130242
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
942 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

NYZ006-131045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150213T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0002.150213T0300Z-150213T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0003.150215T0600Z-150216T1400Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
942 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. 

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY.

* TIMING...THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS 
  EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS 
  IN EFFECT FROM OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY 
  MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...20 TO 25 BELOW
  ZERO.

* WIND CHILL VALUES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS 
  LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND OVER THE
  WEEKEND WILL BRING FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR THOSE NOT
  DRESSED PROPERLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE
OUTDOORS SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN
ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-131045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-150213T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150213T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0003.150215T0600Z-150216T1400Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
942 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

* LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
  FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM OVERNIGHT
  SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...20 TO 25
  BELOW ZERO.

* WIND CHILL VALUES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS 
  LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND OVER THE
  WEEKEND CAN BRING FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF NOT DRESSED
  PROPERLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE
OUTDOORS SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN
ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-131045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0002.150213T0300Z-150213T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0003.150215T0600Z-150216T1400Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
942 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS
  EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN
  EFFECT FROM OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
  MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT...AS LOW AS 30 TO 35 BELOW ZERO.

* WIND CHILL VALUES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS 
  LOW AS 40 BELOW. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND OVER THE
  WEEKEND CAN BRING FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF NOT DRESSED
  PROPERLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE
OUTDOORS SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN
ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010-011-013-014-131045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150213T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0003.150215T0600Z-150216T1400Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
942 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...ERIE...NIAGARA...ORLEANS...GENESEE...MONROE...
  LIVINGSTON...AND ONTARIO COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
  MORNING. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM OVERNIGHT
  SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT...AS LOW AS 20 TO 25 BELOW.

* WIND CHILL VALUES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS 
  LOW AS 30 BELOW. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND OVER THE
  WEEKEND CAN BRING FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF NOT DRESSED
  PROPERLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE
OUTDOORS SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-131045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150213T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0003.150215T0200Z-150216T1400Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
942 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...
  CATTARAUGUS...AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
  MORNING. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY
  EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AS LOW AS 25 TO
  30 BELOW.

* WIND CHILL VALUES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS 
  LOW AS 35 BELOW. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND OVER THE
  WEEKEND CAN BRING FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF NOT DRESSED
  PROPERLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE
OUTDOORS SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH VALUES REACHING 25 TO 35 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SURGES INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY COULD BE EVEN
COLDER THAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA HAS PUSHED AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION HAS LIMITED SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS REMAINS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. AS STRONG CAA
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS...WITH ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THIS...WIND CHILL WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH NOON FRIDAY.

LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ONTARIO...AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...THE FETCH ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO WILL SHORTEN RESULTING IN MULTIBANDED AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER
SNOW BANDS. THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL ALSO BE LOWERING OVERNIGHT
PER BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH
10 PM CAPTURING THE STRONGER LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL...BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVERNIGHT AND THE
CAPPING INVERSION LOWER ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE LAKE
EFFECT BANDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW
ZERO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S BELOW
ZERO IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT RELAXES...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WATERTOWN AREA COULD EVEN APPROACH 40
BELOW WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA HELPING TO SCATTER OUT
THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST
AREA...WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL NOT MAKE IT ABOVE ZERO. THE WIND
CHILL WARNINGS WILL RUN THROUGH NOON...INDICATING THAT WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE BY THE
AFTERNOON...BUT REMEMBER THAT FRIDAY WILL REMAIN A VERY COLD DAY WITH
WIND CHILLS STAYING BELOW ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...COLDEST AIR IN DECADES TO DESCEND INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...

THE MAIN STORY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE EXTREMELY
COLD TEMPERATURES WE HAVE IN STORE AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIR MASS WHICH DESCENDS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL NOT ONLY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO
FAR...BUT THE COLDEST IN DECADES FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO AND DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE ZERO. IN MANY CASES...
BELOW ZERO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE REALIZED. HERE ARE SOME STATS FOR
CLIMATE SITES IN REGARDS TO HIGHS STAYING BELOW ZERO.

BUFFALO...

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD...
-3 ON FEBRUARY 10, 1899 AND FEBRUARY 11, 1885

LAST TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS BELOW ZERO...
-1 ON JANUARY 19, 1994

ROCHESTER...

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD...
-4 ON JANUARY 17, 1982

LAST TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS BELOW ZERO...
-4 ON JANUARY 17, 1982

WATERTOWN...

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD...
-12 ON JANUARY 3, 1981

LAST TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS BELOW ZERO...
-1 ON JANUARY 22, 2014

ADDITIONALLY...

NUMBER OF DAYS THAT REMAIN BELOW ZERO IN HISTORY

BUFFALO...12 DAYS  (145 YEARS OF RECORD)

ROCHESTER...10 DAYS (145 YEARS OF RECORD)

WATERTOWN...38 DAYS (66 YEARS OF RECORD)

FIRST LETS ADDRESS THE EXTREME COLD. ALOFT...THE STEEPENING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DIRECT THE JET NEARLY
NORTH TO SOUTH STRAIGHT OUT OF THE ARCTIC INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST CANADA WITH SUB 490 DM
HEIGHTS AT 500 MB WILL SEND SEVERAL LOBES OF VORTICITY...SOME
PHASING WITH SHORTWAVES RELEASED FROM THE ALASKAN LOW...DOWN THROUGH
THE REGION. SATURDAY WILL START OFF A BIT "MILDER" WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
ARCTIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPSTREAM LAKES.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY FLOODING THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE DAY...THEN TANKING
WELL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO...WITH MAINLY AREAS LIKELY
REMAINING BELOW ZERO AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR SETTLES OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO
AGAIN.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF TO OUR
EAST. THIS WILL CREATE A DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
MAY GET AS COLD AS 40 BELOW. RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE CONTINUING TO
SHOW THIS WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER TREND TO POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
VALUES. WITH THIS IN MIGHT WILL PLACE THE ENTIRE AREA IN A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE VALUES WE WILL
SEE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BESIDES THE COLD...IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITIES
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE FIRST COMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ARCTIC
FRONT TRACKS TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. MODELS HAVE
BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING A GENERAL LIGHT
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE AN
UPTICK TO THE SNOW OCCURS WITHIN A CONVERGENT BAND ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL LOOKING FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH
THE EVENT...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST
OF THE LAKES.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING PERIOD
WILL KICK UP SOME LAKE EFFECT WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH LOCALIZED AREAS POTENTIALLY REQUIRING
HEADLINES...THEREFORE WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW THE LAKE SNOWS
ORGANIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING ACROSS THE
REGION...DIMINISHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THROUGH THE DAY. LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO POINT TO A POTENTIAL SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...THEN PUSHING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT MODEL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WOULD
SUPPORT WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF SYNOPTIC SNOW SHIELD. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COMMON OVERNIGHT. THE WORST CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KFZY WHERE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS COMMON.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
SCATTER OUT SOME OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

 OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING OPEN WATER
SECTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES
ON THE LAKES INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLIES...5-8 FOOT WAVES...AND
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON THE OPEN
PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...THUS A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ001>005-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY
     FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ001>008-010-011-013-014.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ004>006.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ042>044-062>064.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...APFFEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
344 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

NYZ007-008-132045-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
344 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WARNING.
   WIND CHILL WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-132045-
OSWEGO-
344 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.
   WIND CHILL WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WARNING.
   WIND CHILL WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-005-132045-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
344 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.
   WIND CHILL WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WARNING.
   WIND CHILL WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>003-010-011-013-014-132045-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
344 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WARNING.
   WIND CHILL WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-019>021-085-132045-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
344 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WARNING.
   WIND CHILL WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-045-065-SLZ022-024-132045-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
344 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042>044-062>064-132045-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
344 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
440 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

NYZ006-122300-
OSWEGO NY-
440 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN OSWEGO
COUNTY...

* A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF BRIEFLY PRODUCING SNOWFALL
  RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AT
  TIMES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY
  THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL PRODUCE A
  BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW FROM OSWEGO TO PALERMO...CENTRAL
  SQUARE...AND CONSTANTIA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN EXITS 32 AND 33.

DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITY. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE PREPARED BY HAVING AN EMERGENCY KIT...EXTRA
BLANKETS AND WARM CLOTHING IN THE EVENT THAT YOUR VEHICLE HAS
MECHANICAL PROBLEMS OR GETS STUCK. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A FULLY CHARGED
CELL PHONE.

LAT...LON 4316 7588 4315 7592 4318 7599 4318 7602
      4344 7659 4345 7659 4348 7649 4353 7642
      4335 7587 4333 7588 4332 7585 4328 7586

HITCHCOCK