Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2015
Flood Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Mar 13, 2015, 11:50 AM EDT for 12 counties in New York. It took effect at Mar 13, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 4 days.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 13, 2015, 11:50 AM EDT (15:50 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 13, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Mar 17, 2015, 9:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 4 days
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2934 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 53 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 176 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 227 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
101 WGUS61 KBUF 131550 FFABUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1150 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 ...ICE JAM FLOODING THREAT THIS WEEKEND... WARMING AIR TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE ICE ON LOCAL CREEKS AND RIVERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 40S AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURES HAVE CREATED A RIPE SNOWPACK...WITH SNOWMELT INCREASING THE WATER FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. THIS INCREASE IN WATER FLOW...COMBINED WITH RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL CREEKS AND RIVERS. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE IN PLACE ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS...AND THE PRIMARY RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM ICE JAMS. THE WARM WEATHER AND INCREASED FLOWS WILL BREAK THE RIVER ICE...WHICH CAN THEN BECOME JAMMED WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER OR CREEK CHANNEL...SUCH AS SHARP CURVES OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD TAKE THE TIME IN ADVANCE TO PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THIS WEEKEND. NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-140000- /O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0001.150313T1600Z-150315T1200Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1150 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. * THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * SNOWMELT FROM THE WARMING TEMPERATURES IN ADDITIONAL TO RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND WILL PRESENT THE RISK OF ICE JAM FLOODING. RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE NORTH...AND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR THE NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. * SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING STREAM AND RIVER FLOW...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS. BUFFALO...CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND CATTARAUGUS CREEKS ARE TRADITIONALLY THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAM FLOODING. IN ADDITION ICE JAMS CAN ALSO OCCUR ON THE UPPER ALLEGANY...UPPER GENESEE AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE TONAWANDA AND OATKA CREEKS. OTHER CREEKS CAN ALSO OCCASIONALLY EXPERIENCE ICE JAM FLOODING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ FRANKLIN/THOMAS
18 follow-up statements
418 WGUS61 KBUF 131739 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 139 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 ...ICE JAM FLOODING THREAT THIS WEEKEND... WARMING AIR TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE ICE ON LOCAL CREEKS AND RIVERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 40S AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURES HAVE CREATED A RIPE SNOWPACK...WITH SNOWMELT INCREASING THE WATER FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. THIS INCREASE IN WATER FLOW...COMBINED WITH RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL CREEKS AND RIVERS. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE IN PLACE ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS...AND THE PRIMARY RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM ICE JAMS. THE WARM WEATHER AND INCREASED FLOWS WILL BREAK THE RIVER ICE...WHICH CAN THEN BECOME JAMMED WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER OR CREEK CHANNEL...SUCH AS SHARP CURVES OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD TAKE THE TIME IN ADVANCE TO PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THIS WEEKEND. NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-140145- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150315T1200Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 139 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO... ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * SNOWMELT FROM THE WARMING TEMPERATURES IN ADDITIONAL TO RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND WILL PRESENT THE RISK OF ICE JAM FLOODING. RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE NORTH...AND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR THE NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. * SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING STREAM AND RIVER FLOW...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS. BUFFALO...CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND CATTARAUGUS CREEKS ARE TRADITIONALLY THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAM FLOODING. IN ADDITION ICE JAMS CAN ALSO OCCUR ON THE UPPER ALLEGANY...UPPER GENESEE AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE TONAWANDA AND OATKA CREEKS. OTHER CREEKS CAN ALSO OCCASIONALLY EXPERIENCE ICE JAM FLOODING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$
755 WGUS61 KBUF 140001 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 801 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 ...ICE JAM FLOODING THREAT THIS WEEKEND... TEMPERATURES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH SOME RAIN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL WEAKEN THE ICE ON LOCAL CREEKS AND RIVERS. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE RIPENED THE SNOWPACK...WITH SNOWMELT INCREASING THE WATER FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. THIS INCREASE IN WATER FLOW...COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL CREEKS AND RIVERS. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE IN PLACE ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS...AND THE PRIMARY RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM ICE JAMS. THE WARM WEATHER AND INCREASED FLOWS WILL BREAK THE RIVER ICE...WHICH CAN THEN BECOME JAMMED WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER OR CREEK CHANNEL...SUCH AS SHARP CURVES OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD TAKE THE TIME IN ADVANCE TO PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THIS WEEKEND. NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-140815- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150315T1200Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 801 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO... ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * SNOWMELT FROM ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL PRESENT THE RISK OF ICE JAM FLOODING. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A TENTH OR TWO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO JUST SHORT OF A HALF INCH NEAR THE NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE THROUGH 8PM SATURDAY. * SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING STREAM AND RIVER FLOW...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS. BUFFALO...CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND CATTARAUGUS CREEKS ARE TRADITIONALLY THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAM FLOODING. IN ADDITION ICE JAMS CAN ALSO OCCUR ON THE UPPER ALLEGANY...UPPER GENESEE AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE TONAWANDA AND OATKA CREEKS. OTHER CREEKS CAN ALSO OCCASIONALLY EXPERIENCE ICE JAM FLOODING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ SMITH
352 WGUS61 KBUF 140602 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 202 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 ...ICE JAM FLOODING THREAT THIS WEEKEND... TEMPERATURES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH SOME RAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL WEAKEN THE ICE ON LOCAL CREEKS AND RIVERS. THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES HAVE RIPENED THE SNOW PACK...WITH SNOW MELT INCREASING THE WATER FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. THIS INCREASE IN WATER FLOW...COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL CREEKS AND RIVERS. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE IN PLACE ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS...AND THE PRIMARY RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM ICE JAMS. THE WARM WEATHER AND INCREASED FLOWS WILL BREAK THE RIVER ICE...WHICH CAN THEN BECOME JAMMED WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER OR CREEK CHANNEL...SUCH AS SHARP CURVES OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD TAKE THE TIME IN ADVANCE TO PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THIS WEEKEND. NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-141415- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150315T1200Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 202 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO... ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * SNOW MELT FROM ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL INTO SATURDAY WILL PRESENT THE RISK OF ICE JAM FLOODING. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A TENTH OR TWO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO JUST SHORT OF A HALF INCH NEAR THE NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE THROUGH 8PM SATURDAY. * SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING STREAM AND RIVER FLOW...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS. BUFFALO...CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND CATTARAUGUS CREEKS ARE TRADITIONALLY THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAM FLOODING. IN ADDITION ICE JAMS CAN ALSO OCCUR ON THE UPPER ALLEGANY...UPPER GENESEE AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE TONAWANDA AND OATKA CREEKS. OTHER CREEKS CAN ALSO OCCASIONALLY EXPERIENCE ICE JAM FLOODING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ RSH
697 WGUS61 KBUF 140932 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 532 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 ...ICE JAM FLOODING THREAT THIS WEEKEND... TEMPERATURES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH SOME RAIN TODAY WILL WEAKEN THE ICE ON LOCAL CREEKS AND RIVERS. THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES HAVE RIPENED THE SNOW PACK WITH SNOW MELT INCREASING THE WATER FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. THIS INCREASE IN WATER FLOW...COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL CREEKS AND RIVERS. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE IN PLACE ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS...AND THE PRIMARY RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM ICE JAMS. THE WARM WEATHER AND INCREASED FLOWS WILL BREAK THE RIVER ICE...WHICH CAN THEN BECOME JAMMED WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER OR CREEK CHANNEL...SUCH AS SHARP CURVES OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD TAKE THE TIME IN ADVANCE TO PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THIS WEEKEND. NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-141745- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150315T1200Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 532 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO... ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * SNOW MELT FROM ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL WILL PRESENT THE RISK OF ICE JAM FLOODING. RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A TENTH OR SO ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO A QUARTER INCH NEAR THE NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. * SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING STREAM AND RIVER FLOW...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS. BUFFALO...CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND CATTARAUGUS CREEKS ARE TRADITIONALLY THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAM FLOODING. IN ADDITION ICE JAMS CAN ALSO OCCUR ON THE UPPER ALLEGANY...UPPER GENESEE AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE TONAWANDA AND OATKA CREEKS. OTHER CREEKS CAN ALSO OCCASIONALLY EXPERIENCE ICE JAM FLOODING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ RSH
065 WGUS61 KBUF 141445 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1045 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 ...ICE JAM FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND... TEMPERATURES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH SOME RAIN TODAY WILL WEAKEN THE ICE ON LOCAL CREEKS AND RIVERS. THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES HAVE RIPENED THE SNOW PACK WITH SNOW MELT INCREASING THE WATER FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. THIS INCREASE IN WATER FLOW...COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL CREEKS AND RIVERS. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE IN PLACE ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS...AND THE PRIMARY RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM ICE JAMS. THE WARM WEATHER AND INCREASED FLOWS WILL BREAK THE RIVER ICE...WHICH CAN THEN BECOME JAMMED WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER OR CREEK CHANNEL...SUCH AS SHARP CURVES OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD TAKE THE TIME IN ADVANCE TO PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THIS WEEKEND. NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-142245- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150315T1200Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1045 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO... ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * SNOW MELT FROM ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL WILL PRESENT THE RISK OF ICE JAM FLOODING. RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A TENTH OR SO ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO A QUARTER INCH NEAR THE NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. * SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING STREAM AND RIVER FLOW...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS. BUFFALO...CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND CATTARAUGUS CREEKS ARE TRADITIONALLY THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAM FLOODING. IN ADDITION ICE JAMS CAN ALSO OCCUR ON THE UPPER ALLEGANY...UPPER GENESEE AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE TONAWANDA AND OATKA CREEKS. OTHER CREEKS CAN ALSO OCCASIONALLY EXPERIENCE ICE JAM FLOODING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$
259 WGUS61 KBUF 142134 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 534 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 ...ICE JAM FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND... TEMPERATURES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH SOME RAIN TODAY WILL WEAKEN THE ICE ON LOCAL CREEKS AND RIVERS. THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES HAVE RIPENED THE SNOW PACK WITH SNOW MELT INCREASING THE WATER FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. THIS INCREASE IN WATER FLOW...COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL CREEKS AND RIVERS. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE IN PLACE ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS...AND THE PRIMARY RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM ICE JAMS. THE WARM WEATHER AND INCREASED FLOWS WILL BREAK THE RIVER ICE...WHICH CAN THEN BECOME JAMMED WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER OR CREEK CHANNEL...SUCH AS SHARP CURVES OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD TAKE THE TIME IN ADVANCE TO PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THIS WEEKEND. NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-150545- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150315T1200Z/ /00000.0.SM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 534 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...ERIE...ONTARIO... ORLEANS...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FOG. AFTER THIS IT WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CREEKS TO RESPOND TO THE RUN-OFF. * ICE HAS STARTED TO BREAK UP ON SOME AREA CREEKS WHICH CORRESPONDS WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN FLOW. HYDROGRAPHS INDICATE ICE FLOWS ON CAYUGA CREEK AND CATTARAUGUS CREEK WHICH SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE ICE FLOWS ON OTHER CREEKS AS WELL. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF THE ICE FLOWS WILL RESULT IN AN ICE JAM OR IF IT WILL CAUSE ANY FLOODING. TYPICALLY...ICE JAMS TEND TO FORM IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AND CREEKS YEAR AFTER YEAR. THOSE LOCATED IN AREAS TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAMS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING SHOULD DEVELOP. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ APFFEL
409 WGUS61 KBUF 150105 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 905 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 ...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT... TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RUN OFF EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GAUGES SHOW THAT ICE HAS STARTED TO BREAK UP ON SOME CREEKS AND THERE STILL IS A CHANCE THAT ICE JAMS WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. ICE JAMS MOST COMMONLY FORM WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER OR CREEK CHANNEL...SUCH AS SHARP CURVES...BRIDGES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS. ICE JAMS ALSO TEND TO OCCUR IN THE SAME LOCATIONS YEAR AFTER YEAR. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED IF FLOODING DOES OCCUR. NYZ001>004-011-013-014-021-150215- /O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150315T1200Z/ /00000.0.SM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...BATAVIA...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...WELLSVILLE 905 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE GENESEE RIVER VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION HAS BEEN CANCELLED. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT AND RUN OFF EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A DIMINISHING RISK FOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. $$ NYZ010-012-019-020-085-151000- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150315T1200Z/ /00000.0.SM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 905 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * ERIE...WYOMING...CATTARAUGUS AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES. * UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. * THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA. ALTHOUGH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RUN-OFF IS EXPECTED...ICE HAS BROKEN UP ON SOME AREA CREEKS. THESE ICE FLOWS MAY DEVELOP INTO ICE JAMS AND CAUSE FLOODING OVERNIGHT. FLOWS SHOULD LEVEL OFF OVERNIGHT...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN IF ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR. THOSE LOCATED IN AREAS TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAMS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING DOES DEVELOP. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ APFFEL
393 WGUS61 KBUF 150705 FFABUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 305 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 ...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT... TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING DURING THE REMAINING PRE DAWN HOURS...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RUN OFF EXPECTED. HOWEVER... GAUGES SHOW THAT ICE HAS STARTED TO BREAK UP ON SOME CREEKS AND THERE STILL IS THE CHANCE THAT ICE JAMS WILL FORM. ICE JAMS MOST COMMONLY FORM WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER OR CREEK CHANNEL...SUCH AS SHARP CURVES...BRIDGES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS. ICE JAMS ALSO TEND TO OCCUR IN THE SAME LOCATIONS YEAR AFTER YEAR. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED IF FLOODING DOES OCCUR. NYZ010-012-019-020-085-151515- /O.EXT.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150315T1800Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 305 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. * UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. * THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA. ALTHOUGH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RUN-OFF IS EXPECTED...ICE HAS BROKEN UP ON SOME AREA CREEKS. THESE ICE FLOWS MAY DEVELOP INTO ICE JAMS AND CAUSE FLOODING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THOSE LOCATED IN AREAS TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAMS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING DOES DEVELOP. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ RSH
477 WGUS61 KBUF 150841 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 441 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 ...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING DURING THE REMAINING PRE DAWN HOURS...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RUN OFF EXPECTED. HOWEVER... GAUGES SHOW THAT ICE HAS STARTED TO BREAK UP ON SOME CREEKS AND THERE STILL IS THE CHANCE THAT ICE JAMS WILL FORM. ICE JAMS MOST COMMONLY FORM WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER OR CREEK CHANNEL...SUCH AS SHARP CURVES...BRIDGES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS. ICE JAMS ALSO TEND TO OCCUR IN THE SAME LOCATIONS YEAR AFTER YEAR. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED IF FLOODING DOES OCCUR. NYZ010-012-019-020-085-151800- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150315T1800Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 441 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. * UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. * THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA. ALTHOUGH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RUN-OFF IS EXPECTED...ICE HAS BROKEN UP ON SOME AREA CREEKS. THESE ICE FLOWS MAY DEVELOP INTO ICE JAMS AND CAUSE FLOODING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THOSE LOCATED IN AREAS TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAMS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING DOES DEVELOP. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ RSH/JJR
941 WGUS61 KBUF 151755 FFABUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 155 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 ...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR MINIMAL ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT. THIS SLOWING OF THE SNOWMELT WILL ALSO EASE THE FLOW RATE ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS. SEVERAL ICE JAMS CONTINUE ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL CREEKS REPORTING LEVELS NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL ICE JAM FORMATION IS NOT LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 40S WITH MID 50S LIKELY INLAND AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE. THIS WARMTH WILL YIELD ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...WHICH WILL INCREASE STREAM AND CREEK FLOWS AND AGAIN HEIGHTEN THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS. ICE JAMS MOST COMMONLY FORM WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER OR CREEK CHANNEL...SUCH AS SHARP CURVES...BRIDGES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS. ICE JAMS ALSO TEND TO OCCUR IN THE SAME LOCATIONS YEAR AFTER YEAR. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED IF FLOODING DOES OCCUR. NYZ010-012-019-020-085-160200- /O.EXT.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150317T1500Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 155 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RUN-OFF IS EXPECTED...ICE HAS BROKEN UP ON SOME AREA CREEKS. THESE ICE FLOWS MAY DEVELOP INTO ICE JAMS AND CAUSE FLOODING TODAY. THOSE LOCATED IN AREAS TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAMS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING DOES DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL WARMING ON MONDAY WILL AGAIN PRODUCE SNOWMELT RUNOFF WHICH WILL INCREASE STREAM AND CREEK FLOWS. THIS RISE IN FLOW RATES WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE ICE ON THE LAKES...WHICH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE SNOWMELT WITHIN AREA STREAM AND CREEKS HEADWATERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF FLOODING MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK NEAR DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ THOMAS/WOOD
976 WGUS61 KBUF 160055 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 855 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 ...ADDITIONAL ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOWBELT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT AND CAUSE CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ICE HAS ALREADY STARTED TO BREAK UP ON MANY CREEKS...AND THIS INCREASED FLOW MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. ICE JAMS MOST COMMONLY FORM WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER OR CREEK CHANNEL...SUCH AS SHARP CURVES...BRIDGES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS. ICE JAMS ALSO TEND TO OCCUR IN THE SAME LOCATIONS YEAR AFTER YEAR. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED IF FLOODING DOES OCCUR. NYZ010-012-019-020-085-160900- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150317T1500Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 855 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...ERIE...AND WYOMING. * THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA. THE GREATEST RISK IS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN CREEKS AND RIVERS RESPOND TO SNOW MELT FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. INCREASED FLOWS CAN CAUSE ICE TO BREAK UP WHICH MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS AND ICE JAM FLOODING. THERE ARE ALREADY ICE JAMS IN PLACE ON SEVERAL CREEKS...AND A GREATER VOLUME OF WATER MAY CAUSE WATER TO RISE BEHIND EXISTING ICE JAMS. THOSE LOCATED IN AREAS TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAMS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING DOES DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCE SNOWMELT AND RUN-OFF. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ APFFEL
721 WGUS61 KBUF 160809 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 409 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 ...ADDITIONAL ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHILE LOWER TEMPERATURES THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE RESULTED IN LITTLE...IF ANY MELTING OF OUR SNOW-PACK...THE MERCURY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S LATER TODAY AND WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RENEWED SNOW-MELT WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE FEEDER STREAMS TO ONCE AGAIN RISE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SINCE ICE HAS ALREADY STARTED TO BREAK UP ON MAY CREEKS...THE ADDITIONAL OF HIGHER FLOWS COULD RESULT IN NEW ICE JAMS. ICE JAMS MOST COMMONLY FORM WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER OR CREEK CHANNEL...SUCH AS SHARP CURVES...BRIDGES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS. ICE JAMS ALSO TEND TO OCCUR IN THE SAME LOCATIONS YEAR AFTER YEAR. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED IF FLOODING DOES OCCUR. NYZ010-012-019-020-085-161615- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150317T1500Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 409 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN TRIBUTARIES WILL RESPOND TO RENEWED SNOW MELT FROM THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INCREASED FLOWS CAN CAUSE ICE TO BREAK UP WHICH MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS AND ICE JAM FLOODING. THERE ARE ALREADY ICE JAMS IN PLACE ON SEVERAL CREEKS...AND A GREATER VOLUME OF WATER MAY CAUSE WATER TO RISE BEHIND EXISTING ICE JAMS. THOSE LOCATED IN AREAS TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAMS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING DOES DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. NOTABLY COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE WILL REDUCE SNOW-MELT AND RUN-OFF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ RSH
402 WGUS61 KBUF 161606 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH...RESENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1205 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 ...ADDITIONAL ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHILE LOWER TEMPERATURES THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE RESULTED IN LITTLE...IF ANY MELTING OF OUR SNOW-PACK...THE MERCURY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S LATER TODAY AND WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RENEWED SNOW-MELT WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE FEEDER STREAMS TO ONCE AGAIN RISE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SINCE ICE HAS ALREADY STARTED TO BREAK UP ON MAY CREEKS...THE ADDITIONAL OF HIGHER FLOWS COULD RESULT IN NEW ICE JAMS. ICE JAMS MOST COMMONLY FORM WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER OR CREEK CHANNEL...SUCH AS SHARP CURVES...BRIDGES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS. ICE JAMS ALSO TEND TO OCCUR IN THE SAME LOCATIONS YEAR AFTER YEAR. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED IF FLOODING DOES OCCUR. NYZ010-012-019-020-085-170430- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150317T1500Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1205 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN TRIBUTARIES WILL RESPOND TO RENEWED SNOW MELT FROM THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INCREASED FLOWS CAN CAUSE ICE TO BREAK UP WHICH MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS AND ICE JAM FLOODING. THERE ARE ALREADY ICE JAMS IN PLACE ON SEVERAL CREEKS...AND A GREATER VOLUME OF WATER MAY CAUSE WATER TO RISE BEHIND EXISTING ICE JAMS. THOSE LOCATED IN AREAS TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAMS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING DOES DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. NOTABLY COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE WILL REDUCE SNOW-MELT AND RUN-OFF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$
438 WGUS61 KBUF 170159 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 959 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 ...ADDITIONAL ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT... TEMPERATURES ROSE WELL INTO THE 40S IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY AND SOME CREEKS HAVE STARTED TO RESPOND TO RUN-OFF FROM THE SNOW MELT THIS EVENING. CREEKS AND RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE MODESTLY OVERNIGHT. THIS RISE MAY BREAK UP ICE OR CAUSE EXISTING ICE JAMS TO RE-POSITION. HIGHER FLOWS WILL ALSO CAUSE PONDING BEHIND EXISTING ICE JAMS TO RISE. THESE FACTORS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ICE JAM FLOODING TONIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE AN ICE JAM WILL FORM. ICE JAMS MOST COMMONLY FORM WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER OR CREEK CHANNEL...SUCH AS SHARP CURVES...BRIDGES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS. ICE JAMS ALSO TEND TO OCCUR IN THE SAME LOCATIONS YEAR AFTER YEAR. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED IF FLOODING DOES OCCUR. NYZ010-012-019-020-085-171000- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150317T1500Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 959 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...ERIE...AND WYOMING. * THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA. ICE JAMS HAVE LARGELY REMAINED IN PLACE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...RUN OFF FROM THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE MODESTLY TONIGHT. INCREASED FLOWS CAN CAUSE ICE TO BREAK UP WHICH MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS AND ICE JAM FLOODING. THERE ARE ALREADY ICE JAMS IN PLACE ON SEVERAL CREEKS...AND A GREATER VOLUME OF WATER MAY CAUSE WATER TO RISE BEHIND EXISTING ICE JAMS. THOSE LOCATED IN AREAS TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAMS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING DOES DEVELOP. DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL DIMINISH RUN OFF AND DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING ON TUESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ APFFEL
109 WGUS61 KBUF 170825 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 425 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 ...ADDITIONAL ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS MORNING... TEMPERATURES ROSE WELL INTO THE 40S IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY...AND SOME CREEKS HAVE RESPONDED DUE TO TO RUNOFF FROM THE ENSUING SNOWMELT. CREEKS AND RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE MODESTLY THIS MORNING...WITH THIS RISE POTENTIALLY BREAKING UP ICE OR CAUSE EXISTING ICE JAMS TO RE-POSITION. HIGHER FLOWS WILL ALSO CAUSE PONDING BEHIND EXISTING ICE JAMS TO RISE. THESE FACTORS COULD STILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ICE JAM FLOODING. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE AN ICE JAM WILL FORM. ICE JAMS MOST COMMONLY FORM WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER OR CREEK CHANNEL...SUCH AS SHARP CURVES...BRIDGES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS. ICE JAMS ALSO TEND TO OCCUR IN THE SAME LOCATIONS YEAR AFTER YEAR. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED IF FLOODING DOES OCCUR. NYZ010-012-019-020-085-171500- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150317T1500Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 425 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. * UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING. * THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA. ICE JAMS HAVE LARGELY REMAINED IN PLACE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...RUNOFF FROM THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE MODESTLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED FLOWS CAN CAUSE ICE TO BREAK UP...WHICH MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS AND ICE JAM FLOODING. THERE ARE ALREADY ICE JAMS IN PLACE ON SEVERAL CREEKS...AND A GREATER VOLUME OF WATER MAY CAUSE WATER TO RISE BEHIND EXISTING ICE JAMS. THOSE LOCATED IN AREAS TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAMS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING DOES DEVELOP. FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL DIMINISH RUNOFF AND DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$
049 WGUS61 KBUF 171451 FFABUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1051 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 ...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY... SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN LAST NIGHT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT RISE ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. THIS RISE MAY BREAK UP ICE OR CAUSE EXISTING ICE JAMS TO REPOSITION. HIGHER FLOWS WILL ALSO CAUSE PONDING BEHIND EXISTING ICE JAMS TO RISE. THESE FACTORS COULD STILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ICE JAM FLOODING. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE AN ICE JAM WILL FORM. ICE JAMS MOST COMMONLY FORM WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER OR CREEK CHANNEL...SUCH AS SHARP CURVES...BRIDGES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS. ICE JAMS ALSO TEND TO OCCUR IN THE SAME LOCATIONS YEAR AFTER YEAR. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED IF FLOODING DOES OCCUR. NYZ010-012-020-085-171600- /O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150317T1500Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...WARSAW...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1051 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN CANCELLED. MOST ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE CREEKS AND STREAMS. $$ NYZ019-172300- /O.EXT.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150318T0100Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHAUTAUQUA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JAMESTOWN 1051 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...CHAUTAUQUA. * UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA. RUNOFF FROM THE OVERNIGHT RAIN AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE MODESTLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED FLOWS CAN CAUSE ICE TO BREAK UP...WHICH MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS AND ICE JAM FLOODING. THOSE LOCATED IN AREAS TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAMS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING DOES DEVELOP. FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL DIMINISH RUNOFF AND DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. * ICE JAMS ON CATTARAUGUS CREEK ARE FORMING NEAR SUNSET BAY WHICH PRODUCE FLOODING IN AND NEAR SUNSET BAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$
247 WGUS61 KBUF 172010 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 410 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 ...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY... SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN LAST NIGHT HAS PRODUCED A SLIGHT RISE ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. THIS RISE MAY BREAK UP ICE OR CAUSE EXISTING ICE JAMS TO RE-POSITION. HIGHER FLOWS WILL ALSO CAUSE PONDING BEHIND EXISTING ICE JAMS TO RISE. THESE FACTORS COULD STILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ICE JAM FLOODING. AS TEMPERATURES DROP TONIGHT RUNOFF WILL DECREASE...REDUCING THE RISK OF ICE JAM FLOODING. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE AN ICE JAM WILL FORM. ICE JAMS MOST COMMONLY FORM WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE RIVER OR CREEK CHANNEL...SUCH AS SHARP CURVES...BRIDGES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS. ICE JAMS ALSO TEND TO OCCUR IN THE SAME LOCATIONS YEAR AFTER YEAR. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED IF FLOODING DOES OCCUR. NYZ019-180100- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150318T0100Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHAUTAUQUA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JAMESTOWN 410 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...CHAUTAUQUA. * UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA. RUNOFF FROM THE OVERNIGHT RAIN AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAS CAUSED CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE MODESTLY TODAY. INCREASED FLOWS CAN CAUSE ICE TO BREAK UP...WHICH MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS AND ICE JAM FLOODING. THOSE LOCATED IN AREAS TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAMS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING DOES DEVELOP. FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL DIMINISH RUNOFF AND DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING TONIGHT. * ICE JAMS ON CATTARAUGUS CREEK ARE FORMING NEAR SUNSET BAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE FLOODING IN AND NEAR SUNSET BAY. ICE JAMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES && $$ HITCHCOCK
135 WGUS61 KBUF 180105 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 905 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 NYZ019-180215- /O.EXP.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150318T0100Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHAUTAUQUA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JAMESTOWN 905 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY HAS EXPIRED. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR AN ICE JAM WHICH IS IN PLACE. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNING FOR MORE DETAILS. OUTSIDE OF CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY...THE RISK OF ICE JAMS IS GOING DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THIS WILL REDUCE RUNOFF REACHING THE STREAMS AND CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO GO DOWN. $$ HITCHCOCK
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Mar 13, 11:19 AM EDT, 31 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 13, 11:19 AM EDT, 31 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1119 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... QUICK UPDATE TO HIGHLIGHT FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM ICE JAMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW IN COMBINATION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TEMPS ABOVE 32F WILL CAUSE ICE ON CREEKS AND STREAMS TO MOVE AND BREAK APART. FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM GENESEE VALLEY AREA...WESTWARD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. LINGERING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA...ALONG WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING AS AN INITIAL SURGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THAT REGION...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF CLOUDS...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...A MILDER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP BOOST READINGS BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS TODAY... WITH AFTERNOON MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FROM THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. TONIGHT...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD. AS A CONSEQUENCE...MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE END RESULT OF ALL THIS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS OVER TIME...ALONG WITH THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IN TERMS OF PTYPE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST PLAIN RAIN ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...SAVE FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET LATER ON TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING IN THIS LATTER AREA IS LOW GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES. AS FOR TEMPS...NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...TO THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... GENERALLY LOW IMPACT WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CONTROL OF A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC BASED FLOW. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE IN THE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO WEAK...QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY AVERAGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. THIS IS A GOOD THING...ESPECIALLY WHEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE PERSISTENCE OF A DEEP LATE SEASON SNOWPACK FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. AN UNIMPRESSIVE...INDISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE INTENSIFYING INTO A ROBUST DISTURBANCE. THIS STRENGTHENING NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL ENERGIZE A BROAD INVERTED SFC TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... EVENTUALLY LEADING TO A BROAD SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SRN STREAM WAVE...THE BULK OF THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE (DEFINED BY PWAT VALUES >1") WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THAT BEING SAID...THE DIGGING NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY DYNAMIC SYSTEM OVER OUR REGION. THE 1.5 PV SFC IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVEN AS LOW AS 700MB WHILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...STRONG H925-700 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL ALL BOIL DOWN TO SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...ALBEIT IT WITH QPF UNDER A QUARTER INCH IN MOST AREAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE RAINFALL WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...AND MAYBE MORE IMPORTANTLY...DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY A DEEPER THAN NORMAL SNOWPACK. A FAIR AMOUNT OF RUNOFF FROM THIS SCENARIO WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA TRIBUTARIES...BUT GIVEN THE LOW QPF AND SUB-50F TEMP FORECAST...THE RISK FOR FLOODING REMAINS LOWER THAN ONE MIGHT OTHERWISE EXPECT. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...WHERE THE RISING WATER LEVELS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME ICE JAM RELATED FLOODING. ALSO...IF STEADIER RAINS OVER PENNSYLVANIA ARE FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS LATTER SCENARIO IS PROBABLY A LONG SHOT THOUGH...AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE KEEPING THE WORRISOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL HYDRO DETAILS. A NEWLY FORMED CLOSED LOW BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE VIGOROUS DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL NOT BE AS DEEP A MOISTURE FIELD OVER OUR REGION AS THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS...THE PASSING OF THE DYNAMIC CLOSED LOW AND DEEP CYCLONIC COLD ADVECTIVE FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE INCH OR TWO AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. ON SUNDAY...A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES EAST TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME WORKING ITS WAY BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED ARND 5K FT THOUGH...SO STUBBORN CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. IT WILL BE A LITTLE CHILLY ON SUNDAY...AS H85 TEMPS AVG -4C WILL KEEP AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S. WEAK RIDGING WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL HELP TO FINALLY CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... A WEALTH OF CIRRUS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT THE SAME TIME. IN ANY CASE...WE CAN EXPECT UNEVENTFUL WEATHER. A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL THEN PASS TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAST WITH BRINGING THIS FRONT INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND ITS NOTABLY WARMER SOLUTION. IF THIS LATTER SOLUTION WORKS OUT... SOME AREAS COULD EASILY PUSH INTO THE LOWER 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... STRONG RUN TO RUN AND ENSEMBLE TO ENSEMBLE (ECMWF/GEFS) CONSISTENCIES DEPICT A BROAD RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF WHAT PRECIPITATION DOES FALL WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR AND GENERALLY SOUTH SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH 00Z SAT. PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. CIGS LOWERING AFTER 00Z SAT TO THE LOW VFR/MVFR RANGE OVER TIME...AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LIKELY REMAINING VFR LONGER DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND A GENERAL SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VSBYS SHOULD START OFF VFR...BEFORE DETERIORATING TO MVFR IN LIGHT FOG AS INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR OVERRIDES THE REMAINING SNOWPACK. IN TERMS OF PTYPE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST PLAIN RAIN ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...SAVE FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE 08Z-12Z SAT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN MOSTLY PLAIN RAIN...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY. SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF KROC...AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MORE LIKELY FURTHER EAST. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE MAINTAINING RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH FAIRLY MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO A MODERATELY BRISK WESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... QUICK UPDATE TO HIGHLIGHT FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM ICE JAMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW IN COMBINATION WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TEMPS ABOVE 32F WILL CAUSE ICE ON CREEKS AND STREAMS TO MOVE AND BREAK APART. FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM GENESEE VALLEY AREA...WESTWARD. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER...WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE BASINS OF THE BUFFALO CREEKS...AS WELL AS THOSE OF THE ALLEGHENY AND GENESEE RIVERS. THE ABOVE SAID...THE WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING. ONE GUIDE USED TO DETERMINE WHEN ICE WILL BREAK UP IS THAWING DEGREE HOURS (TDH)...WHICH IS THE SUM OF THE ABOVE FREEZING PORTION OF TEMPERATURES EACH HOUR. USING THIS TECHNIQUE...TDH VALUES SHOULD EASILY REMAIN BELOW 300 THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN FOR THE WARMEST BASINS. IT TYPICALLY TAKES 300 TO 500 TDH FOR ICE TO BREAK UP...AND IT MAY EVEN TAKE A BIT MORE THAN THAT IN THIS CASE GIVEN THE THICK ICE THAT IS LIKELY IN PLACE. THIS SAID...TODAY'S WARM TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO FURTHER RIPEN THE SNOW PACK AND INCREASE FLOWS. AFTER THAT...THE FLOOD RISK SHOULD INCREASE A BIT THIS WEEKEND WHEN SOME LIGHT RAINFALL AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HELP TO INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF RUNOFF. THIS STATED...LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LIGHTER WITH RESPECT TO THE QPF FORECAST AND NOW GENERALLY KEEPS TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE THAN THAT POSSIBLE NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA LINE. IF REALIZED...SUCH LIGHTER POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A LOWERED OVERALL RISK OF FLOODING. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JJR NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JJR SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...RSH AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JJR MARINE...FRANKLIN/JJR HYDROLOGY...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 13, 5:11 AM EDT, 6 hours 39 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 511 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-140915- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA- CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- 511 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL OF A QUARTER TO AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA TRIBUTARIES. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR FLOODING THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF TEMPERATURES CLIMB HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AND RAINFALL EXCEEDS THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY FLOODING WOULD BE IN THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS (WHERE ICE JAM FLOODING WILL ADD TO THE RISK) AND ALSO THE ALLEGHENY BASIN. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-140915- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 511 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF RSH
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 1:43 PM EDT | Winter Weather Advisory | BUF | Lewis | 21 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.