Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE TONIGHT
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TURN SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITY LEVELS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME SHOWER
CHANCES THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 727 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT'S BEEN AN INTERESTING AFTERNOON TO
THIS POINT AS WE'VE HAD A COUPLE OF SEVERE- WARNED THUNDERSTORMS
THUS FAR, BUT A GREATER NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS HAVE OCCURRED
EITHER SOUTH, EAST, OR NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. AIR MASS IS
STILL UNSTABLE WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING AROUND 2000 J/KG OF
CAPE, THOUGH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AS
WELL, SOME OF WHICH MIGHT BE FROM THE LARGE CANOPY OF ANVIL CIRRUS
BEING BLOWN DOWNWIND FROM INCREASING MID-TO- UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS. STILL THINK SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE AND THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS VALID. THE HRRR, WHICH HAS DONE THE
BEST IN ITS RADAR DEPICTION TODAY, SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST
NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE THREAT THRU SUNSET WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ALONG A LINE FROM MONTPELIER NORTH. WE'LL ALSO BE
MONITORING ONGOING CONVECTION APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
FOR LATER IN THE EVENING. THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST, AND WE'LL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM INTO NORTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

IT WILL STILL BE QUITE MUGGY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA, WHICH ISN'T LIKELY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. I'VE SHOWN LOWS
IN THE 60S, BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STEADILY DROP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT MAY STILL BE CLEARING
FAR EASTERN VERMONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER IS STILL ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THOUGH 850 MB TEMPS WILL STILL BE
AROUND 14 TO 16C WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
80S, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS BEING SOME 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY. COULD SEE THERE BEING AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH MORE
SEASONABLE LOWS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY REMAINS IN
QUESTION. FORECAST NAM SOUNDINGS GENERATE THE MOST - ON THE ORDER
OF 1500 J/KG CAPE - BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WOULD BE
REQUIRED TO REALIZE THIS LEVEL OF CAPE WHICH DON'T SEEM REALISTIC.
ON THE OTHER HAND, THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS PRODUCE CAPE VALUES
LESS THAN 500 J/KG. I THINK THE TRUTH MAY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS, SO I'VE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS BUT CHANCE THUNDER. IT'S SOMETHING THAT WILL REQUIRE
MONITORING AS WE GO FORWARD. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN POPS INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 106 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH PROSPECTS FOR STRONG CONVECTION
LATER TODAY, I'VE WORKED UP AN EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
EARLY, LARGELY USING BLENDED GUIDANCE AND INCORPORATING 12Z/19TH
GFS. IN GENERAL, THERE REALLY ISN'T MUCH CHANGE COMPARED TO THE
PRIOR FORECAST. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND THE EFFECTS OF 1000-500MB THICKNESS
TROUGHING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THIS LARGE- SCALE REGIME,
EXPECT THERE TO BE PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DIURNAL/INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH GREATER AREAL COVERAGE
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT TEMERATURES TO RUN BELOW LATE-JULY
NORMALS GIVEN COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND COLDER THEMRAL
PROFILES. IT'S NOT UNTIL LATER SATURDAY THAT THE PATTERN BEGINS TO
CHANGE TO A RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...AT 00Z MONDAY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS VT TAF SITES AND SOMEWHAT QUIET IN
NRN NY BUT THE THREAT STILL EXISTS THRU 04Z IN NT AND 06Z IN VT
FOR MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
VCNTY. THEREAFTER...DESPITE SOME ATTEMPT OF DRYING AIR...LOTS OF
RAIN/GROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY MEAN MVFR/IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG...ESP MPV AND SLK.

DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH WSW WINDS 8-15 KTS FOR MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG PSBL
MPV/SLK.

12Z TUE - 00Z FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY PM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACT THE LAKE AREA. WINDS AND WAVES MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...MV/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-201945-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
340 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     HAIL             2 N CHELSEA             44.02N  72.45W
07/19/2015  M1.00 INCH       ORANGE             VT   PUBLIC

            HAIL REPORTED TO BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1500954

RDEAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

VTZ011-012-019-192345-
WINDSOR-WESTERN RUTLAND-EASTERN RUTLAND-
654 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN VERMONT...

AT 651 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM MOUNT TABOR TO NEAR ANDOVER TO NEAR CHESTER IN
SOUTHEAST RUTLAND AND SOUTHWEST WINDSOR COUNTIES...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS ALONG
WITH SMALL HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SEE
SHELTER AS STORMS APPROACH. REMEMBER...WHEN THUNDER ROARS GO INDOORS.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLAREMONT...SPRINGFIELD...CHESTER...LUDLOW...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...
HARTLAND...CLARENDON...WALLINGFORD...PAWLET...CAVENDISH...MOUNT
HOLLY...WEST WINDSOR...SHREWSBURY...BRIDGEWATER...WOODSTOCK...
READING...PLYMOUTH...TINMOUTH...WESTON AND ANDOVER.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4323 7273 4330 7282 4332 7325 4362 7289
      4366 7231 4360 7234 4357 7238 4351 7240
      4348 7238 4337 7242 4336 7239 4333 7241
      4331 7240 4325 7244 4323 7243 4322 7269
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 236DEG 31KT 4336 7296 4333 7273 4321 7260

EVENSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

VTZ004-006>008-010-012-017-018-200015-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-WASHINGTON-WINDSOR-LAMOILLE-EASTERN
CHITTENDEN-ESSEX-ORANGE-
716 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL VERMONT...

AT 713 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER
WASHINGTON ORANGE AND SOUTHERN CALEDONIA COUNTIES IN VERMONT...
THESE STORMS ARE MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH AND ARE PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BARRE...MONTPELIER...LITTLETON...CHELSEA...ORANGE...RANDOLPH...
WILLIAMSTOWN...BERLIN...BRADFORD...EAST MONTPELIER...DANVILLE...
MIDDLESEX...WAITSFIELD...WARREN...MORETOWN...CALAIS...CORINTH...
FAYSTON...BROOKFIELD AND TUNBRIDGE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4438 7181 4435 7182 4434 7198 4432 7203
      4428 7207 4419 7207 4413 7203 4411 7206
      4399 7212 4396 7210 4389 7217 4382 7219
      4386 7297 4445 7297 4447 7217 4444 7186
      4440 7178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 279DEG 38KT 4415 7239

RDEAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
724 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             3 S LYNDONVILLE         44.49N  72.00W
07/19/2015  E1.00 INCH       CALEDONIA          VT   PUBLIC

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL ACCOMPANIED HEAVY DOWNPOUR. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1500955

LOCONTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
824 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HARDWICK                44.50N  72.37W
07/19/2015                   CALEDONIA          VT   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF WATER 6-8 INCHES DEEP ALONG ROUTE 14 AND 15
            NEAR THE FIRE DEPARTMENT IN DOWNTOWN HARDWICK

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1500956

RDEAL

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