Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
428 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE TONIGHT
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TURN SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITY LEVELS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME SHOWER
CHANCES THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442 CONTINUES
FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT.

SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AIR MASS THAT IS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH
LIFTED INDICES IN THE -6 TO -8 RANGE, MLCAPE AROUND 2000-2500
J/KG, AND HARDLY ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THESE INSTABILITY
LEVELS BEING PRODUCED BY WARM/HUMID LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS, BUT ALSO A
COMPONENT OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY SPECIAL 18Z
DTX, BUF, AND ALY RAOBS. KINEMATICALLY, DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
ARE AROUND 30-35 KTS BUT WITH FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

SCATTERED MAINLY SUB- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED UP TO
THIS POINT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT INTO FAR NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF CLINTON, FRANKLIN AND ST. LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK. HOWEVER, THERE ARE TWO OTHER AREAS OF STORMS: ONE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AIDED BY A PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE TROUGH, AND THEN ACROSS ONTARIO CLOSER TO SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL JETSTREAK OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. PER THE HRRR AND HI-RES WRF ARW REFLECTIVITY, EACH OF THESE
AREAS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE EVENING.
SO EXPECT A CONTINUED INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING INTO THE 40-50 KT RANGE. EXPECT SOME TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE HAZARDS.

LATER IN THE EVENING, EXPECT THE CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW GETTING
GOING NEAR TORONTO TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY. A CONTINUED
RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS
THIS SECOND AREA MOVES ACROSS.

IT WILL STILL BE QUITE MUGGY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA, WHICH ISN'T LIKELY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. I'VE SHOWN LOWS
IN THE 60S, BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STEADILY DROP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT MAY STILL BE CLEARING
FAR EASTERN VERMONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER IS STILL ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THOUGH 850 MB TEMPS WILL STILL BE
AROUND 14 TO 16C WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
80S, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS BEING SOME 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY. COULD SEE THERE BEING AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH MORE
SEASONABLE LOWS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY REMAINS IN
QUESTION. FORECAST NAM SOUNDINGS GENERATE THE MOST - ON THE ORDER
OF 1500 J/KG CAPE - BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WOULD BE
REQUIRED TO REALIZE THIS LEVEL OF CAPE WHICH DON'T SEEM REALISTIC.
ON THE OTHER HAND, THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS PRODUCE CAPE VALUES
LESS THAN 500 J/KG. I THINK THE TRUTH MAY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS, SO I'VE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS BUT CHANCE THUNDER. IT'S SOMETHING THAT WILL REQUIRE
MONITORING AS WE GO FORWARD. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN POPS INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 106 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH PROSPECTS FOR STRONG CONVECTION
LATER TODAY, I'VE WORKED UP AN EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
EARLY, LARGELY USING BLENDED GUIDANCE AND INCORPORATING 12Z/19TH
GFS. IN GENERAL, THERE REALLY ISN'T MUCH CHANGE COMPARED TO THE
PRIOR FORECAST. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND THE EFFECTS OF 1000-500MB THICKNESS
TROUGHING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THIS LARGE- SCALE REGIME,
EXPECT THERE TO BE PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DIURNAL/INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH GREATER AREAL COVERAGE
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT TEMERATURES TO RUN BELOW LATE-JULY
NORMALS GIVEN COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND COLDER THEMRAL
PROFILES. IT'S NOT UNTIL LATER SATURDAY THAT THE PATTERN BEGINS TO
CHANGE TO A RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENTLY ALL STATIONS ARE VFR AFTER THE
VARIOUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 05-10 KNOTS WITH PBG BEING THE EXCEPTION
AT SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BETWEEN 18-00Z.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN REDUCE CONDITIONS ON STATION TO IFR
AS THEY PASS THROUGH. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS. COULD BE SOME PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT MPV/SLK.

WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20
KNOTS TODAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG PSBL
MPV/SLK.

12Z TUE - 00Z FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY PM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACT THE LAKE AREA. WINDS AND WAVES MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...MV
MARINE...WFO BTV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-201945-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
340 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             WASHINGTON              44.11N  72.43W
07/19/2015  E0.25 INCH       ORANGE             VT   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1500950

VERASAMY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             WILLIAMSTOWN            44.12N  72.54W
07/19/2015  E0.25 INCH       ORANGE             VT   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1500951

VERASAMY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
429 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             ST. ALBANS              44.81N  73.08W
07/19/2015  E0.25 INCH       FRANKLIN           VT   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1500952

VERASAMY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
501 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

VTZ004-007-008-010-192315-
ESSEX-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH
501 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...STRONG STORMS EXPECTED FOR EASTERN VERMONT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ESSEX...CALEDONIA...
WASHINGTON...AND ORANGE COUNTIES OF VERMONT THROUGH 700 PM. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...TORRENTIAL
RAINS...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY MOVE EAST
AT 25 MPH. AS STORMS APPROACH...SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
REMEMBER...WHEN THUNDER ROARS GO INDOORS.

EVENSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
503 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

VTZ002-003-005>007-016-017-192200-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-CALEDONIA-WESTERN
CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-ORLEANS-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-WESTERN FRANKLIN-
503 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT
INCLUDING LAMOILLE FRANKLIN AND ORLEANS COUNTIES...

AT 501 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER WATERVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORRISVILLE...FAIRFIELD...WOLCOTT...JOHNSON...EDEN...BAKERSFIELD...
FLETCHER...CRAFTSBURY...IRASBURG...COVENTRY...LOWELL...ORLEANS...
GREENSBORO...WATERVILLE...WESTFIELD...HYDE PARK...CAMBRIDGE...
ALBANY...BELVIDERE CENTER AND GREENSBORO BEND.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4453 7226 4454 7297 4485 7303 4491 7221
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 266DEG 23KT 4472 7277