Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Burlington, VT

003 
WGUS71 KBTV 270531
FFSBTV

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VTC001-023-270539-
/O.CAN.KBTV.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-150727T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WASHINGTON VT-ADDISON VT-
131 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND EAST
CENTRAL ADDISON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA. FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT.

LAT...LON 4389 7307 4410 7309 4409 7271 4402 7272
      4403 7274 4396 7279 4393 7282 4388 7285
      4388 7288 4390 7288 4389 7292

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY WILL BE DYING
DOWN FOLLOWING SUNSET. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 717 PM EDT SUNDAY...STILL A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE
LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS. AS WE LOSE THE
DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS OR STORMS TO
DISSIPATE AS GOING FORECAST INDICATES. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS AND POPS FOR THIS
EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS...BUT OVERALL
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH FOLLOWING SUNSET WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING...IN OUR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AREAS ESPECIALLY...AND SOME FOG FORMATION IN THE TYPICALLY
FOG PRONE SPOTS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE
MILD...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED
WELL TO OUR NORTH IN NORTHERN QUEBEC. 850 WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON.
DID GO A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE MILD WITH TEMPS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...WARMEST STRETCH OF WEATHER OF THE
SEASON THEN OCCURS BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A SURFACE FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS PARENT CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
FEATURE, AND WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE CONSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER
UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN OUTPUT. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST
SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS, RUNNING IDEA OF A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. CAN'T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AIRMASS STORM HERE AND THERE DURING THE LATE/AFTERNOON
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY EITHER, BUT GIVEN LACK OF A
LARGER-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 87-92 RANGE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN 85 TO 90 ON
THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT AND MUGGY LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 65
TO 70 RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY NEXT FRIDAY AS HIGHS SETTLE BACK IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ON LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. BY NEXT WEEKEND SOME
DISPARITY BETWEEN THIS MORNING'S GFS AND EURO OUTPUT IN REGARD TO
A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OR FRONT SAGGING INTO OUR REGION AND
SUBSEQUENT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. OF COURSE, THE GFS IS THE
FURTHEST SOUTH AND MOST ROBUST WITH COOL AIR PUSH FROM THE NORTH,
A KNOWN BIAS. GIVEN MID-SUMMER CLIMO WILL DOWNPLAY THIS SOLUTION
SOMEWHAT FOR NOW AND ADVERTISE ONLY A TOKEN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
STRAY INSTABILITY SHOWER/STORM DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 55 TO 65 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNDER VARIABLY
LIGHT FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE REGION ARE ALL BUT DONE...JUST KEEPING VCSH AROUND RUT
UNTIL 02Z JUST IN CASE THE LAST ONE OUT THERE DOESN'T DISSIPATE
BEFORE IT PASSES THE STATION. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS PATCHY IFR IN
LOW STRATUS AND/OR BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE 06-13Z TIME FRAME AND
A CHANCE OF MVFR FOR RUT FOR THE SAME TIME.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AS WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAILY CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED UNTIL THURSDAY
WHEN A PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW SOMEWHAT BETTER
ORGANIZATION. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 2-8 PM EACH DAY
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT
KMPV/KSLK.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...HIGH PRESSURE/VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS/MV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
319 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-270900-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
319 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
426 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

NYZ035-VTZ005-262100-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-
426 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...A DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LAKE CHAMPLAIN FROM NEAR
BURLINGTON TO ESSEX NEW YORK THROUGH 500 PM...

AT 423 PM EDT...A DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR
WILLSBORO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THIS MAY CAUSE BRIEF CHOPPY TO ROUGH CONDITIONS ON LAKE
WATERS AND POSE A NEAR TERM HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ESSEX...SHELBURNE...CHARLOTTE...WILLSBORO...BOQUET...RED ROCK
POINT...SLED RUNNER POINT...CONVERSE BAY...MCNEIL COVE...QUAKER SMITH
POINT...BOQUET RIVER POINT...PICKET ISLAND...INDIAN BAY...SPLIT ROCK
POINT...DEAN ISLAND...WINGS POINT...HATCH POINT...LIGONIER POINT...
THOMPSONS POINT AND WHALLON BAY.

REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT
THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON
THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4441 7314 4426 7327 4426 7331 4427 7331
      4425 7332 4424 7333 4424 7334 4441 7353
      4452 7335
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 310DEG 7KT 4440 7336

JMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
759 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VTZ008-010-018-270045-
EASTERN ADDISON-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
759 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AND WESTERN
ORANGE COUNTY IN VERMONT THROUGH 8:45 PM...

AT 751 PM EDT...A THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER ROXBURY...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHELSEA...WILLIAMSTOWN...BROOKFIELD...TUNBRIDGE...VERSHIRE...
ROXBURY...CORINTH CORNERS...BRAINTREE HILL...SOUTH NORTHFIELD...
ALPINE VILLAGE...NORTH TUNBRIDGE...SOUTH WASHINGTON...WEST
BROOKFIELD...BROOKFIELD CENTER...EAST GRANVILLE...SOUTH TUNBRIDGE...
NORTH RANDOLPH...SOUTH RANDOLPH...ALLIS STATE PARK AND EAST RANDOLPH.

REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT
THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 4383 7242 4385 7251 4404 7287 4420 7274
      4404 7224
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 301DEG 13KT 4408 7271