Wind Advisory 11, NWS Brownsville, TX

565 
WWUS74 KBRO 261614
NPWBRO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1014 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PERMIAN BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO
PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TXZ250-251-253>257-270000-
/O.CON.KBRO.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-151227T1200Z/
BROOKS-KENEDY-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FALFURRIAS...SARITA...MCALLEN...
EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...
BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
1014 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY...

* TIMING...9 AM THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY.

* WINDS...INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AT 25 TO 35 MPH BETWEEN 9 AM
  AND NOON...THEN 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
  AND FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...UNFASTENED ITEMS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE... 
  TRAMPOLINES...TRASH CANS...PORTABLE BASKETBALL HOOPS...AND 
  PLANTERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH SOUTH FACING EXPOSURES...
  COULD BLOW AROUND OR BECOME FLYING OBJECTS. CHRISTMAS 
  DECORATIONS SUCH AS LAWN ORNAMENTS AND TREE OR ROOF LIGHTS ARE 
  ALSO AT RISK FOR DAMAGE IF NOT TIED DOWN. ISOLATED TO 
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
30 TO 39 MPH FOR AT LEAST 2 HOURS...AND OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 57 MPH.

HIGH PROFILE OR LIGHT WEIGHT VEHICLES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DRIVE...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES OR OVERPASSES AND IN CROSS WINDS ON
EAST-WEST ELEVATED HIGHWAYS. FASTEN OR TIE DOWN LOOSE DOORS...
WINDOWS...SHINGLES...AND SIDING. TIE DOWN OR MOVE INTO SHELTER
LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

$$

858 
WWUS74 KBRO 270007
NPWBRO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
607 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEP ON CRANKING OVERNIGHT...
...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND SUNDAY FRONT AND
ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...

.INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO MAINTAIN STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TXZ250-251-253>257-271200-
/O.CON.KBRO.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-151227T1200Z/
BROOKS-KENEDY-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FALFURRIAS...SARITA...MCALLEN...
EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...
BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
607 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY...

* TIMING...THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH UNTIL 9 PM
  INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH BETWEEN 9 PM
  AND 4 AM BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY BY DAYBREAK...6
  AM...SUNDAY. 

* IMPACTS...UNFASTENED ITEMS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE...
  TRAMPOLINES...TRASH CANS...PORTABLE BASKETBALL HOOPS...AND
  PLANTERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH SOUTH FACING EXPOSURES... COULD
  BLOW AROUND OR BECOME FLYING OBJECTS. CHRISTMAS DECORATIONS SUCH
  AS LAWN ORNAMENTS AND TREE OR ROOF LIGHTS ARE ALSO AT RISK FOR
  DAMAGE IF NOT TIED DOWN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
  WILL CONTINUE AND MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
30 TO 39 MPH FOR AT LEAST 2 HOURS...AND OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 57 MPH.

HIGH PROFILE OR LIGHT WEIGHT VEHICLES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DRIVE...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES OR OVERPASSES AND IN CROSS WINDS ON
EAST-WEST ELEVATED HIGHWAYS. FASTEN OR TIE DOWN LOOSE DOORS...
WINDOWS...SHINGLES...AND SIDING. TIE DOWN OR MOVE INTO SHELTER
LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

$$

52/BSG

149 
WWUS74 KBRO 271052 AAA
NPWBRO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
452 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...HAZARDOUS WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

.STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY BE
REPLACED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS MAY OCCUR AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE ON
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

TXZ248-249-252-271900-
/O.EXB.KBRO.WI.Y.0011.151227T1200Z-151228T1200Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-STARR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...
RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA
452 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY. 

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO
  NORTHWEST 30 TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...UNFASTENED ITEMS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE...
  TRAMPOLINES...TRASH CANS...PORTABLE BASKETBALL HOOPS...AND
  PLANTERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH SOUTH FACING EXPOSURES...COULD
  BLOW AROUND OR BECOME FLYING OBJECTS. CHRISTMAS DECORATIONS SUCH
  AS LAWN ORNAMENTS AND TREE OR ROOF LIGHTS ARE ALSO AT RISK FOR
  DAMAGE IF NOT TIED DOWN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
  WILL CONTINUE AND MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
30 TO 39 MPH FOR AT LEAST 2 HOURS...AND OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 57 MPH.

HIGH PROFILE OR LIGHT WEIGHT VEHICLES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DRIVE...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES OR OVERPASSES AND IN CROSS WINDS ON
EAST-WEST ELEVATED HIGHWAYS. FASTEN OR TIE DOWN LOOSE DOORS...
WINDOWS...SHINGLES...AND SIDING. TIE DOWN OR MOVE INTO SHELTER
LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

$$

TXZ250-251-253>257-271900-
/O.EXT.KBRO.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-151228T1200Z/
BROOKS-KENEDY-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FALFURRIAS...SARITA...MCALLEN...
EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...
BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
452 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...

* TIMING...THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY. 

* WINDS...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 30 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
  40 MPH. 

* IMPACTS...UNFASTENED ITEMS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE...
  TRAMPOLINES...TRASH CANS...PORTABLE BASKETBALL HOOPS...AND
  PLANTERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH SOUTH FACING EXPOSURES...COULD
  BLOW AROUND OR BECOME FLYING OBJECTS. CHRISTMAS DECORATIONS SUCH
  AS LAWN ORNAMENTS AND TREE OR ROOF LIGHTS ARE ALSO AT RISK FOR
  DAMAGE IF NOT TIED DOWN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
  WILL CONTINUE AND MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
30 TO 39 MPH FOR AT LEAST 2 HOURS...AND OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 57 MPH.

HIGH PROFILE OR LIGHT WEIGHT VEHICLES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DRIVE...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES OR OVERPASSES AND IN CROSS WINDS ON
EAST-WEST ELEVATED HIGHWAYS. FASTEN OR TIE DOWN LOOSE DOORS...
WINDOWS...SHINGLES...AND SIDING. TIE DOWN OR MOVE INTO SHELTER
LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

$$

477 
WWUS74 KBRO 271855
NPWBRO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1255 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...HAZARDOUS WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

TXZ248>257-280300-
/O.CON.KBRO.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-151228T1200Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
1255 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...

* TIMING...THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...UNFASTENED ITEMS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE... 
  TRAMPOLINES...TRASH CANS...PORTABLE BASKETBALL HOOPS...AND 
  PLANTERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH SOUTH FACING EXPOSURES...
  COULD BLOW AROUND OR BECOME FLYING OBJECTS. CHRISTMAS 
  DECORATIONS SUCH AS LAWN ORNAMENTS AND TREE OR ROOF LIGHTS ARE 
  ALSO AT RISK FOR DAMAGE IF NOT TIED DOWN. ISOLATED TO 
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WILL CONTINUE AND MAY INCREASE IN 
  COVERAGE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
30 TO 39 MPH FOR AT LEAST 2 HOURS...AND OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 57 MPH.

HIGH PROFILE OR LIGHT WEIGHT VEHICLES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DRIVE...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES OR OVERPASSES AND IN CROSS WINDS ON
EAST-WEST ELEVATED HIGHWAYS. FASTEN OR TIE DOWN LOOSE DOORS...
WINDOWS...SHINGLES...AND SIDING. TIE DOWN OR MOVE INTO SHELTER
LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

$$

849 
WWUS74 KBRO 280312 AAA
NPWBRO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
912 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...WINDS DIMINISHING REMAINING STRONG AND GUSTY ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST...

.STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN STRONG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SOME GUSTS TO APPROACH 40 MPH OVERNIGHT
BUT WILL BE LESS FREQUENT.

TXZ248>255-280415-
/O.CAN.KBRO.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-151228T1200Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN
912 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS CANCELLED THE
WIND ADVISORY. 

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH.


$$

TXZ256-257-281115-
/O.CON.KBRO.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-151228T1200Z/
COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
912 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...

* TIMING...THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...UNFASTENED ITEMS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE... 
  TRAMPOLINES...TRASH CANS...PORTABLE BASKETBALL HOOPS...AND 
  PLANTERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH SOUTH FACING EXPOSURES... 
  COULD BLOW AROUND OR BECOME FLYING OBJECTS. CHRISTMAS 
  DECORATIONS SUCH AS LAWN ORNAMENTS AND TREE OR ROOF LIGHTS ARE 
  ALSO AT RISK FOR DAMAGE IF NOT TIED DOWN. ISOLATED TO 
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WILL CONTINUE AND MAY INCREASE IN 
  COVERAGE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
30 TO 39 MPH FOR AT LEAST 2 HOURS...AND OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 57 MPH.

HIGH PROFILE OR LIGHT WEIGHT VEHICLES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DRIVE...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES OR OVERPASSES AND IN CROSS WINDS ON
EAST-WEST ELEVATED HIGHWAYS. FASTEN OR TIE DOWN LOOSE DOORS...
WINDOWS...SHINGLES...AND SIDING. TIE DOWN OR MOVE INTO SHELTER
LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

$$

857 
WWUS74 KBRO 281203
NPWBRO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
603 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...THE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE WEAKENING STEADILY...

.THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE STATE HAS BEEN STEADILY
WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO FALL BELOW WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS. ACCORDINGLY THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 

TXZ256-257-281315-
/O.EXP.KBRO.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-151228T1200Z/
COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
603 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
615 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW MINOR SURGICAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON 'BIG PICTURE' ITEMS FOR RAIN CHANCES...FOG...AND
ESPECIALLY WIND. FIRST...FOR WIND: ECMWF/GFS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS BEGINNING
AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY
NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE RANGES FROM 27 TO 32 KNOTS
(SUSTAINED) WHICH MAKES SENSE BASED ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
FORCING FROM THE RAPIDLY CUTTING OFF UPPER LOW AND EQUALLY
TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS EACH SHOW
A SOLID MIXED-LAYER WIND AVERAGE OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS DURING THE
DAY...AND EXPECTED EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF
U.S. 77/I-69E ADD CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTS IN THESE RANGES...40 TO 45
MPH OR EVEN HIGHER IN A FEW SPOTS.

SO...WHAT ABOUT WIND ADVISORY? PLAN TO ISSUE FOR THE USUAL
SUSPECTS ALONG/EAST OF U.S. 281/I-69C TO COVER MOST OF SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...THE PERSISTENT APPEARANCE OF A 50+
KNOT JET ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 950 MB (1000 FEET OR SO) AT HARLINGEN
AND NOT TOO MUCH LOWER AT MCALLEN BY MIDNIGHT COULD PRODUCE SOME
OF THE HIGHEST GUSTS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR
80 IN MANY AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE MIXING MACHINE
GOING. LOOK FOR THE UPDATE WITH THE HAZARD BY 830 PM.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES AND FOG IN THE SHORT TERM? FUGGEDABOUDIT!
ATMOSPHERE IS BONE DRY ABOVE THE INVERSION AND SYNOPTIC FORCING
NON-EXISTENT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOT SURE WHERE GUIDANCE IS COMING
UP WITH MENTIONABLE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...ONLY ACROSS THE
RANCHLANDS...GIVEN THE PUNCH OF DEEP DRY AIR RUNNING FROM THE
SIERRA MADRE TOWARD THE VALLEY. AS FOR FOG TONIGHT? NO CHANCE WITH
LOW LEVEL WINDS BASED ON 00Z SOUNDING RUNNING AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS
BELOW THE INVERSION. LATEST GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON THIS IDEA AND
EXPECT FREQUENT BREEZY GUSTS ALL NIGHT...SO AT MOST A FUZZY HAZE
BUT NOTHING TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO BE MENTIONABLE. ONE MORE NOTE
ON FOG: INTERESTING TO SEE THE SHARP DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE
BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI BAY/NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE COASTAL BEND
AND THE WATERS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. 4 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER
DOWN HERE IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SEA FOG AND NO FOG (JUST
HAZE)...AND THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES REDUCE THE EFFECT OF THE
MARINE LAYER WHICH KEEPS AIR MIXED AND FOG-FREE.
52/BSG

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES ARE CEILING/VISIBILITY EARLY AND WIND
LATE. BASED ON LATEST SOUNDING AND OBSERVATIONS EXPECT THE
OVERNIGHT TO FEATURE HAZE VS. TRUE FOG...AND THAT'S IF THE HAZE
CAN REDUCE VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN A STEADY SOUTHEAST WIND
AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS. FOR NOW...RETAINED THE MVFR
(4-5SM) VISIBILITY...MORE LIKELY AT KBRO THAN KHRL/KMFE...BUT
PLACED CEILINGS AT 1200 (LOW MVFR) RATHER THAN IFR BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF FORECAST SOUNDING SATURATION LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET THAT KEEPS THE MIXING GOING AND HOLDS
CEILINGS FROM DROPPING. THEY MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH IFR (800 FEET)
BUT DECIDED AGAINST A TEMPORARY CONDITION FOR NOW.

WIND IS THE BIG STORY SATURDAY. BASED ON DISCUSSION ABOVE...AND
TIMED WITH EXPECTED EROSION OF THE LOW DECK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
SPEEDIER FLOW IN THE MIXED LAYER...HAVE PUNCHED UP >25 KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS BY 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS IN
SLIGHTLY SUNNIER KHRL/KMFE. WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SOME
DECENT CHOPPINESS/BUMPS ON TAKEOFF AND LANDING.
52/BSG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHARP 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST...WITH
A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO...ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK AND LIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
APPROACHING 500MB LOW WILL SUPPORT PRESSURE FALLS OVER WEST TEXAS
RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND A FAIRLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THUS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL CU AND STRATUS MIXING OUT HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT FOR
MID 70S ACROSS THE FAR WEST DUE TO SOME LINGERING STRATUS...THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOG WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT DUE
TO STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS...BUT PATCHY FOG COULD FORM IN SOME
AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST...IN THE 20 TO 30 OR EVEN 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN SECTIONS
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE MID
70S NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS BEFORE DAWN ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LARGE AND WELL DEVELOPED
500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER WEST TX WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE REST OF
THE STATE SUN WHICH WILL USHER THROUGH A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE RGV SUN MORNING. THIS LARGE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL
THEN LIFT OUT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON AND TUES. ON ITS
HEELS ANOTHER STRONG 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST
OVER THE DESERT SW AND WEST TX ON TUES. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO DEEP SOUTH TX WED AND
WED NIGHT. FOR THURS AND FRI A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH WILL BE
REINFORCED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES BY
SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK TO MODERATE CAA OVER THE RGV. SOME WEAK SURFACE
COASTAL TROFFING MAY ALSO BOOST UP THE POPS A BIT DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY VALUES REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ALSO IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG FROPA
EARLY SUN. SO DESPITE THE STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS EXPECT THE
OVERALL RAIN CHCS WILL REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES.

SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE MAX
AND MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. THE FIRST ISSUE
CONCERNS THE HIGHS FOR SUN. THE ECMWF IS GOING FOR A LITTLE FASTER
FROPA VERSUS THE GFS AND ACCORDINGLY BOTH THE MODELS DISAGREE
QUITE A BIT ON THE HIGH TEMP WITH THE GFS COMING IN MUCH WARMER
DUE TO A LITTLE BIT SLOWER FROPA. REGARDLESS THE HIGH TEMP ON SUN
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY WITH NEAR STEADY OR FALLING
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING LATER IN THE DAY. IF THE FRONT IS DELAYED A
FEW HOURS VERSUS MODEL GUIDANCE TIMING...HIGHS ON SUNDAY MORNING
COULD REACH INTO THE 80S DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF OF
THE MOUNTAINS IN NE MEXICO.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR MAXES AND
MINS FOR MON-WED. THEN LARGER DISCREPANCIES START SHOWING UP
BETWEEN THEM ON THUR AND FRI WITH THE GFS SHOWING STRONGER CAA
VERSUS THE ECMWF. AFTER THE FROPA SUN WILL OPT FOR A GENERAL 50/50
MODEL BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS AND POPS IS ONLY FAIR AT THIS TIME. SO
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD IS ONLY
AVERAGE DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK TO MODERATE GRADIENT
PREVAILS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE INTO MID SATURDAY MORNING. MARINE
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ADVERSE BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FROPA OCCURRING EARLY SUN VERY
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
STRONG NW WINDS BUILD OVER THE MARINE LOCATIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. THE PGF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AFTER THE FRONT TO POSSIBLY
PUSH CONDITIONS UP INTO GALE CRITERIA LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THE
PGF WILL THEN WEAKEN QUICKLY LATE MON ALLOWING THE WINDS AND SEAS
TO DECREASE BELOW SCA/GALE LEVELS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY EASTWARDS ON TUES WHICH WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF A PRETTY
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND SEAS IN PLACE FOR
THAT DAY. HOWEVER THESE CALM CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY SHORT LIVED
AS THE SECONDARY PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL OCCUR
ON WED RESULTING IN ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLY
REQUIRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  83  74  75 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          74  84  75  76 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            74  85  74  76 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              73  87  72  73 /  10  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  90  69  71 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   73  78  72  74 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
521 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

TXZ250-251-253>257-261130-
BROOKS-KENEDY-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
521 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WIND: SOUTH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON
SATURDAY AND REACH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN EXPOSED
LOCATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE NIGHT. MINOR
DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE TO LOOSE LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS LEFT OUTDOORS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY...ALSO AT 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...AND CONTINUE AT 25 TO 35 MPH OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...
CHILL: THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWER 40S WILL BRING WIND CHILL INDEX
VALUES TO BETWEEN 30 AND 36 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH 9 AM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ248-249-252-261130-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-STARR-
521 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WIND: SOUTH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON
SATURDAY AND REACH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN EXPOSED
LOCATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE NIGHT. MINOR
DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE TO LOOSE LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS LEFT OUTDOORS.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST BEFORE NOON SUNDAY...AND
INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AND CONTINUE AT
20 TO 35 MPH OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...
CHILL: THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BRING WIND
CHILL INDEX VALUES TO BETWEEN 25 AND 33 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH 9 AM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-261130-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
521 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
INCREASE ABOVE 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS BUILD
TO 6 FEET MAINLY BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO
25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT. LAGUNA WATERS WILL
BECOME ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WITH WAVES UP TO 3 FEET IN THE CENTER
CHANNEL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND GULF SEAS WILL REACH 10 FEET OR MORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS FOR SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: VERY TO EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE NEAR OR ABOVE GALE FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY BELOW 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT.
VERY ROUGH WATERS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AT 8 TO 12 FEET...UP TO 14 FEET BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES
OFFSHORE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TOWARD 7 FEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

52/BSG