Special Weather Statement, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
228 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE CRP CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE BRO CWA THIS EVENING...
BEFORE HOLDING UP FOR THE NIGHT. VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL
CALL FOR A ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
WILL HANG ON THROUGH BURN OFF MID WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE BEFORE LATER IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS WELL. NOT GOING FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT RIGHT NOW...BUT
THAT SITUATION CAN BE REEVALUATED ON AN AD HOC BASIS. DEW POINT
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH TO
PROBABLY STAVE OFF ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL
FOLLOW THE DEW POINTS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S
COMMONPLACE...AS OPPOSED TO 70S TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY...AS THERE IS NOT MUCH
ACTUAL COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...JUST DRIER AIR. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A STRAY STRAGGLER TYPE SHOWER WEDNESDAY...BUT THOSE
SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...DRY PATTERN RETURNS FOR
THE LONG TERM PRD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING AS WELL ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS. THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL ACT AS A BLOCK KEEPING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO MX. EASTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 90S ACROSS THROUGH THE PRD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE PAC NW. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS WEST TEXAS PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL STILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA SAT BUT SUN INTO MONDAY THE CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS
THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A FLAT PRESSURE FIELD OVER THE WEST GULF. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG A SLOW MOVING
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SE PLAINS
WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
A LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS AS A RESULT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST.
SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 6 TO 7 FEET BY SUNDAY AND CLOSER TO 8 FEET
BY MONDAY. SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  72  87  71  89 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          73  89  70  89 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            73  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              73  92  70  92 /  10  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      73  94  69  93 /  20   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  84  77  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/67

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