Special Weather Statement, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
254 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH DRIFT W-SW DEEP MOISTURE AND
DEEPENING SOUTHERLY INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE
MAJORITY OF TODAY'S CROP OF CONVECTION HAS INITIATED OVER KENEDY
COUNTY DRIFTING WHERE THE BEST DIVERGENT FLOW IS OCCURRING. THE
STORMS ARE DRIFTING WEST WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BUILDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEAK SEA BREEZE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 69E. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED OVER WEBB AND NORTHERN ZAPATA COUNTIES
WHERE HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER WEAKNESS IS SUFFICIENT
TO LIFT THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND WITHIN THE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE THROUGH AT LEAST UNTIL THE DAYTIME
HEATING WANES. WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AND MOST OF THE CWA. BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS
AS SOME DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE CONVECTION.

MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR TUESDAY HAS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL MEXICO BUT THE LARGE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING SOUTH TEXAS. THE POSITION OF
THE LOW LOOKS FAVORABLE TO PLACE THE BEST DIFFLUENCE AREA FARTHER
SOUTH POSSIBLY OVER THE LOWER AND MID VALLEY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM HEATING AND WEAK SEA BREEZE (SIMILAR TO
DAY) SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE LOWER
AND MID VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS HIGHER THEN 12Z GFS/MAV
AND NAM/MET AS WELL AS THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE VALUES ESPECIALLY
AS YOU TRAVEL FARTHER WEST INTO HIDALGO COUNTY.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN
PLACE AND HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS REMAINING LOWER THEN LAST WEEK. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OR JUST A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER WHERE RAIN DOES NOT FALL SINCE THE SURFACE SOILS
ARE ABNORMAL DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE AS SURFACE
WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE TO LIMIT HEAT ESCAPE. SURFACE WINDS TO BE
BUMPED UP A NOTCH WITH THE AFTERNOON HOURS SEEING BREEZY CONDITIONS
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INDUCING PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
DETAILS WILL CONSIST OF AN H5 WEAKENESS OVERHEAD AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH AND WEST GULF. THE WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN
ALOFT OVERTHE AREA AT LEAST UNTIL A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXITS EAST...
WHEN SOME H5 FILLING ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDES WILL OCCUR TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS...THE THEME OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER
THE MARINE AREAS...AND DAILY SEA BREEZES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD
MERIT. THAT THOUGHT ISSUPPORTED BY FORECAST AFTERNOON SOUNDING
PWATS OF AROUND TWO INCHES OF MAINLY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. MAY
SEE SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT THU AND FRIDAY AS THE WEAKNESS ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO REMAINS IN PLAY.
INHERITED FORECAST SEEMED TO BE TRACKING AND REALLY ONLY CHANGE
MADE WAS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS RETURNED TO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN STEADILY BEGINNING TO TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MID LEVEL
TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOW FOR PRESSURE TO FALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE.
THE LOWER PRESSURE TO COMBINE WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF INCREASING THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. SEAS TO
RESPOND BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM. EXERCISE CAUTION OR EVEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY BE INITIATED BY THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT FOR THE LAGUNA
MADRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR WINDS IF THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSSTHE NORTH AND NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS. A COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE A MID LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO WEST TEXAS
AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THE LWR PRESSURE INLAND...WORKING WITH
GULF HIGH PRESSURE...WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
COAST...RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN AFTERWARD. GULF WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS IN KNOTS...WITH SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FEET
OFFSHORE. THUS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WEST GULF AND
LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY AND KEEP THE
POSSIBILITY OF MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS GOING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  93  81  93 /  20  30  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  93  80  94 /  20  30  20  20
HARLINGEN            77  97  79  97 /  20  30   0  20
MCALLEN              79 100  81  99 /  30  30   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 101  79 101 /  20  20   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  87  82  87 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/54

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
356 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

TXZ254-172115-
INLAND WILLACY TX-
356 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WILLACY COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM CDT...

AT 355 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WILLAMAR...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORT MANSFIELD...MOVING NORTH AT
5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAN PERLITA...WILLAMAR...PORFIRIO AND SAN PERLITA HIGH SCHOOL.

LAT...LON 2639 9765 2658 9768 2657 9762 2658 9753
      2649 9752 2642 9749
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 164DEG 5KT 2647 9757

BS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
413 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

TXZ254-256-172145-
INLAND WILLACY TX-COASTAL WILLACY TX-
413 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL WILLACY COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 411 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SAN PERLITA...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORT MANSFIELD...MOVING NORTH
AT 5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN
A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAN PERLITA AND SAN PERLITA HIGH SCHOOL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2649 9746 2649 9747 2646 9747 2646 9748
      2645 9747 2638 9749 2645 9766 2659 9762
      2659 9744
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 200DEG 6KT 2650 9755

BS