Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
256 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...

IMPACTS...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR DEEP SOUTH
TX AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS WEEK. A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX COMBINED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLS OVER THE
AREA IN ADDITION TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM A SLOW-MOVING
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE  FLOW MOVING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL PROVIDE
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND THE SAN ANTONIO AREA
IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. NEAR
SOUTH TX...CONVECTION IS INITIATING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WHICH IS FEEDING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE AREAS
THAT WILL SEE CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM HIDALGO AND BROOKS
WESTWARD INTO ZAPATA COUNTY. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME SEVERE MAINLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE OVER THE EAST OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE COAST WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS CLOSER TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DO EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
WILLACY AND CAMERON. MODEL SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WITH A WELL SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGH
THE COLUMN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH HP SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING
TUESDAY. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES FROM HIDALGO WESTWARD AND 1 TO 2
INCHES NEAR THE COAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DUE TO THE
ABUNDANCE ON CLOUD COVER AND THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WARMING AROUND MID TO UPPER 80S. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS AND STARR.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE US...WITH TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COASTAL AND RIDGE OVER THE SE US. MODEL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES AROUND THE TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
US...WITH ONE EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
SWEEPING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT BEST DYNAMICS WILL
STILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST. PLUS THERE WILL NOT BE A
WELL DEFINED SFC FOCUSING MECHANISM IN THE REGION...SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFYLITTLE
THROUGH THE WEEK...SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 80S EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE PROLONGED
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH AND THE INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE SEAS
WILL BUILT CLOSER TO 6 FEET WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCEC CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN CONCERNED WILL BE THE INCREASE OF
CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN... FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
TO OUR NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING FROM
THE WESTERLY FLOW. IN ADDITION AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AN
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AGITATED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH MODEST WINDS AND A LARGE FETCH
ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 3 TO 5 FEET. NO
ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  83  76  83 /  70  40  30  30
BROWNSVILLE          75  85  76  85 /  60  40  30  30
HARLINGEN            75  86  76  85 /  70  40  30  30
MCALLEN              75  86  76  87 /  70  50  40  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      73  86  74  85 /  70  60  50  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  80  76  82 /  60  30  30  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64

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