Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
637 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THICK LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS BUT MAINLY OVERCAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FEED ELEVATED MOISTURE WHILE SOUTHEAST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE BRINGS A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE INLAND. THIS
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WITH BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. ADDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THE BEST TIMING AT THIS TIME. THE HEAVIER AND STRONGER
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER ZAPATA...JIM
HOGG AND STARR COUNTY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND MVFR WITH VIS
LOWERING DUE TO THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...

IMPACTS...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR DEEP SOUTH
TX AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS WEEK. A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX COMBINED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLS OVER THE
AREA IN ADDITION TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM A SLOW-MOVING
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE  FLOW MOVING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL PROVIDE
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND THE SAN ANTONIO AREA
IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. NEAR
SOUTH TX...CONVECTION IS INITIATING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WHICH IS FEEDING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE AREAS
THAT WILL SEE CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM HIDALGO AND BROOKS
WESTWARD INTO ZAPATA COUNTY. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME SEVERE MAINLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE OVER THE EAST OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE COAST WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS CLOSER TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DO EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
WILLACY AND CAMERON. MODEL SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WITH A WELL SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGH
THE COLUMN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH HP SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING
TUESDAY. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES FROM HIDALGO WESTWARD AND 1 TO 2
INCHES NEAR THE COAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DUE TO THE
ABUNDANCE ON CLOUD COVER AND THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WARMING AROUND MID TO UPPER 80S. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS AND STARR.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE US...WITH TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COASTAL AND RIDGE OVER THE SE US. MODEL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES AROUND THE TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
US...WITH ONE EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
SWEEPING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT BEST DYNAMICS WILL
STILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST. PLUS THERE WILL NOT BE A
WELL DEFINED SFC FOCUSING MECHANISM IN THE REGION...SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFYLITTLE
THROUGH THE WEEK...SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 80S EACH DAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE PROLONGED
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH AND THE INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE SEAS
WILL BUILT CLOSER TO 6 FEET WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCEC CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN CONCERNED WILL BE THE INCREASE OF
CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN... FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
TO OUR NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING FROM
THE WESTERLY FLOW. IN ADDITION AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AN
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AGITATED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH MODEST WINDS AND A LARGE FETCH
ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 3 TO 5 FEET. NO
ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ248>250-252.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
359 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

TXZ248>257-122200-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
359 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...
AND BROOKS COUNTIES BEGINNING AT 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.
ANY OF THE STRONGER OR SLOWER-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
ABILITY TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY AT THE LOCAL BEACHES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...AND BROOKS
COUNTIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

RESIDENTS OBSERVING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH
FLOODING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REPORT THOSE
OBSERVATIONS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-122200-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
359 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFFECT THE
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1052 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

TXZ253-120430-
HIDALGO TX-
1052 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY UNTIL
1130 PM CDT...

AT 1051 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR SAN MANUEL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINN AND SAN MANUEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2649 9818 2672 9825 2678 9799 2659 9799
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 240DEG 13KT 2667 9812

GB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1112 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LA CASITA               26.32N  98.72W
05/11/2015                   STARR              TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            LA CASITA FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4
            FEET OF WATER ON HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN LA CASITA AND RIO
            GRANDE CITY. WATER UP TO THE ENGINE ON FIRE DEPARTMENT
            VEHICLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BRO1500062

TOMASELLI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1114 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SAN MANUEL              26.57N  98.12W
05/11/2015                   HIDALGO            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM FROM HIDALGO COUNTY REPORTED WATER WAS ENTERING THE
            FIRE STATION IN SAN MANUEL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BRO1500063

BIRCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1123 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S LAS LOMAS           26.36N  98.78W
05/11/2015                   STARR              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD WAS REPORTED CLOSED AT THE INTERSECTION OF US 83
            AND EMBASSY STREET IN THE LAS LOMAS AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BRO1500064

BIRCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1126 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S LAS LOMAS           26.36N  98.78W
05/11/2015                   STARR              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CAR WAS REPORTED FLOATING IN 3 TO 4 FEET OF MOVING
            WATER IN THE LAS LOMAS AREA. WATER RESCUE WAS IN
            PROGRESS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BRO1500065

BIRCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1129 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W LAS LOMAS           26.36N  98.79W
05/11/2015                   STARR              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            3 FEET OF WATER WAS REPORTED IN FRONT OF WALMART IN THE
            LAS LOMAS AREA ALONG HIGHWAY 83.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BRO1500066

BIRCHFIELD