Winter Storm Watch 9, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

780 
WWUS41 KBOX 040840
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...SNOW EXPECTED ON THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

MAZ020>022-RIZ003>007-041645-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-150304T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.A.0009.150305T0000Z-150306T0000Z/
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-
NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT
340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. 

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. 
  TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY
TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.

&&

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>019-026-RIZ001-002-040945-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-150304T1500Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
AYER...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE
340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

WINTRY WEATHER HAS CHANGED OVER TO RAIN AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE MID 30S TO EVEN MID 40S. THEREFORE...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

MAZ023-024-RIZ008-041645-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.A.0009.150305T0000Z-150306T0000Z/
DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...
BLOCK ISLAND
340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. 
  TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY
TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.

&&

$$

RLG

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352 
WWUS41 KBOX 040942
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
442 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND 
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

MAZ023-024-RIZ008-041745-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0009.150305T0000Z-150306T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0009.150305T0000Z-150306T0000Z/
DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...
BLOCK ISLAND
442 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7
PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
  THROUGH THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND
  SLIPPERY. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL
TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR
UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&

$$

MAZ020>022-RIZ003>007-041745-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.A.0009.150305T0000Z-150306T0000Z/
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-
NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT
442 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL
  MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
  THROUGH THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. 
  TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT.

* VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY
TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.

&&

$$


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036 
WWUS41 KBOX 041754
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

MAZ023-024-RIZ008-050200-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0009.150305T0000Z-150306T0000Z/
DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...
BLOCK ISLAND
1254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT AND CONTINUE 
  THROUGH THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND 
  SLIPPERY. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE
DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR UNTREATED SURFACES. PLAN ON EXTRA
TRAVEL TIME

&&

$$

MAZ020>022-RIZ003>007-050200-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.A.0009.150305T0000Z-150306T0000Z/
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-
NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT
1254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL 
  MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT AND CONTINUE 
  THROUGH THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. 
  TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR LATER
FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER
WEATHER DEVELOP.

&&

$$


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132 
WWUS41 KBOX 041932
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
232 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

MAZ023-024-RIZ008-050345-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0009.150305T0000Z-150306T0000Z/
DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...
BLOCK ISLAND
232 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
  THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL DUE TO SLIPPERY ROADS AND LOW
  VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLAN ON EXTRA TRAVEL TIME IF YOU MUST DRIVE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
THE BEST PLAN IS TO STAY INDOORS IF POSSIBLE.

&&

$$

MAZ020>022-RIZ003>007-050345-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0009.150305T0000Z-150306T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0021.150305T0000Z-150306T0000Z/
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-
NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT
232 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7
PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL 
  MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
  EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...SLOWER THAN NORMAL TRAVEL DUE TO SLIPPERY ROADS.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH CAN HAVE AN AFFECT ON TRAVEL. ALLOW EXTRA TRAVEL TIME AND BE
ALERT FOR SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

&&

$$


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA WILL BRING
A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 7 PM...
OBSERVATIONS AT 3 PM SHOWED LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE TREND ON THIS LEADING EDGE WOULD BRING
IT THROUGH THE CT VALLEY BY 5 PM AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND 7
PM. DRY AIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY ERODE THE LEADING EDGE
AND SLOW THE ONSET A LITTLE. BUT THE TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.

TONIGHT...
HEAVIER PCPN LAGS THE LEADING EDGE BY 2-3 HOURS. EXPECT A HEAVIER
BURST OF SNOW TO LEAVE SOME ACCUMULATION DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT. QPF BASED ON HPC PROJECTIONS COMBINES WITH EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO SUGGEST 1-3 INCHES ACCUMULATION...HEAVIEST IN THE
WEST. OBSERVATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL PA POINT
TO ADVANCING WARMER AIR ALOFT OF THE SURFACE LAYER. MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 40 KNOT JET FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND A 50 KNOT COASTAL JET
AT 925 MB MOVING OVER THE REGION AND SUPPORTING THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT. WITH NO COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE WE SHOULD EXPECT SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT...ALL OF WHICH SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF CHANGING PTYPE OVERNIGHT.

WE USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. BUFKIT SHOWS TEMPS IN THE
30S OVERNIGHT AROUND 925 MB AND A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER TO THE
SURFACE. SO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO NO HIGHER THAN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING.
THAT SHOULD END MOST OF THE PCPN. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WOULD BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WITH TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WEST-TO-EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL
LINE UP WITH THAT UPPER FLOW...STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. MEANWHILE THE UPPER JET IN THE FLOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND PLACES US IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS WILL
GENERATE SUPPORT FOR A WAVE ON THE FRONT PUSHING PCPN NORTH AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH WILL
DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN. SO ANY DEVELOPING
PCPN WOULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN SNOW.

QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THE COLD AIR WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS THE PCPN SHIELD FARTHER SOUTH. THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE SOUTH COAST OR EVEN JUST OFFSHORE. WE WILL
GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS...AND CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH.

BASED QPF ON HPC VALUES. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF EXPECTED PCPN
AND EXPECTED TEMPS...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ALL THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALSO
INCLUDE KENT COUNTY RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWING A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE CHANGING
SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK A COLD PATTERN REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG TERM TIMEFRAME.
ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME PATTERN.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH
CONTINUED TO HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN RI/BI
AND SOUTH COASTAL MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...12Z RUNS SHOWING
IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL GET INTO
OUR AREA TO SOME EXTENT. FORECAST SURFACE TEMPS AND THICKNESSES
INDICATE THE AIRMASS IN OUR AREA ON THURSDAY IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW. THERE MAY BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF WITHIN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WITH RESPECT TO ACCUMULATING SNOWS VS. MORE MINIMAL SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER DURING
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF AND SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN
SOUTHERN RI/FAR SOUTHEAST MA...IN THE WATCH AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY THURSDAY EVENING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA...BUT ANY SNOWFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.  OTHERWISE ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH WEAKENING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TEH
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT TEENS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
CANT RULE OUT A FEW SUB-ZERO LOWS IN THE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS OF THE
FAR INTERIOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SW OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED...15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND A BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL BUT ANTICIPATING HIGHS IN THE 30S SAT AND SUN WITH WINDS FROM
THE SW.

A WEAK LOW/COLD FRONT PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN...
MOST OF THE ENERGY AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MIGHT SEE SOME CLOUDS OTHERWISE ANTICIPATING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW IN OUR AREA WITH
THIS FEATURE. MAY SEE PRECIP MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE
DRY W-NW FLOW.

TUESDAY LOOKS UNCERTAIN WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS OUR AREA FAIRLY DRY...OR IF WE ARE CLIPPED BY A
NORTHERN OR SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. AT THIS POINT HAVE DRY TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

18Z TAF UPDATE... NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP FROM W-E FROM THROUGH 8 PM. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES
WIDESPREAD ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER VSBYS. THE SNOW
TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME ICE ACCUMS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE S COAST EVEN AS RAIN
SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION DURING THE DAY FOR TAF SITES N OF THE MASS PIKE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS OVERALL...LOCLAIZED CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-
VLIFR ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN THROUGH THU MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST INTO THU EVENING. NW WINDS
COULD GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG
THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AS A GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT WINDS
APPROACHING 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE WINDS WILL DRIVE HIGHER SEAS
WITH 5 TO 8 FOOT VALUES ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BY LATE NIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WIND OUT OF THE
WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AT TIMES TO 25 KNOTS...AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES BUT MAY BE DROPPED ON SOME NEAR SHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND PULL COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE WATERS...GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS LATER AT NIGHT. SEAS WILL
LINGER AROUND 5-6 FEET OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WIND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO GUST TO 25-30 KT BY LATE IN THE
DAY...LASTING MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 4-6 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS SUBSIDING ON FRIDAY BUT THEN BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS DURING SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ003>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>022-026-RIZ001>007-040930-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
422 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THERE IS THE MODERATE THREAT FOR MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE CLOSE AREAS
CLOSEST TO OR ON THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA. WARNING LEVEL SNOWS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE...ELSEWHERE LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ234-MAZ023-024-040930-
BUZZARDS BAY-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
422 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOME HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT ONLY A COUPLE
INCHES OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...BUT IS MOST LIKELY EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT RAIN LATE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE MODERATE THREAT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RIZ008-040930-
BLOCK ISLAND RI-
422 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOME HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT ONLY A COUPLE
INCHES OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...BUT IS MOST LIKELY EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT RAIN LATE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE MODERATE THREAT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>233-235>237-250-251-254>256-040930-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
422 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PERIODS OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS AT TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

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