Wind Chill Advisory 2, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

942 
WWUS41 KBOX 161453
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
953 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION TONIGHT...

MAZ002>004-008-009-162300-
/O.CON.KBOX.WC.Y.0002.150117T0500Z-150117T1500Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD
953 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY...FRANKLIN COUNTY... 
  WESTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY...WESTERN HAMPDEN COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM TOMORROW.

* IMPACTS...FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR ON EXPOSED FLESH IN LESS THAN 30 
  MINUTES.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...2 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE WIND CHILL INDEX IS
LIKELY TO REACH -15 TO -24 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS.
FROSTBITE CAN DEVELOP IN JUST 30 MINUTES WITH A WIND CHILL INDEX
OF -20. IF YOU ARE HEADING OUTDOORS...DRESS IN LAYERS AND WEAR A
HAT AND GLOVES.

&&

$$


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229 
WWUS41 KBOX 162049
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING...

MAZ010>012-170500-
/O.EXA.KBOX.WC.Y.0002.150117T0500Z-150117T1500Z/
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...
MILFORD...WORCESTER
349 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM TOMORROW.

* IMPACTS...FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR ON EXPOSED FLESH IN LESS THAN 30 
  MINUTES.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...1 BELOW TO 9 ABOVE ZERO.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE WIND CHILL INDEX IS
LIKELY TO REACH -15 TO -24 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS.
FROSTBITE CAN DEVELOP IN JUST 30 MINUTES WITH A WIND CHILL INDEX
OF -20. IF YOU ARE HEADING OUTDOORS...DRESS IN LAYERS AND WEAR A
HAT AND GLOVES.

&&

$$

MAZ002>004-008-009-170500-
/O.CON.KBOX.WC.Y.0002.150117T0500Z-150117T1500Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD
349 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM TOMORROW.

* IMPACTS...FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR ON EXPOSED FLESH IN LESS THAN 30 
  MINUTES.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...4 BELOW TO 7 ABOVE ZERO.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE WIND CHILL INDEX IS
LIKELY TO REACH -15 TO -24 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS.
FROSTBITE CAN DEVELOP IN JUST 30 MINUTES WITH A WIND CHILL INDEX
OF -20. IF YOU ARE HEADING OUTDOORS...DRESS IN LAYERS AND WEAR A
HAT AND GLOVES.

&&

$$


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193 
WWUS41 KBOX 170329
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1029 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

MAZ002>004-008>012-171130-
/O.CON.KBOX.WC.Y.0002.150117T0500Z-150117T1500Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...
NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER
1029 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM TOMORROW.

* IMPACTS...FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR ON EXPOSED FLESH IN LESS THAN 30 
  MINUTES.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...4 BELOW TO 11 ABOVE ZERO.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 16 BELOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE WIND CHILL INDEX IS
LIKELY TO REACH -15 TO -24 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS.
FROSTBITE CAN DEVELOP IN JUST 30 MINUTES WITH A WIND CHILL INDEX
OF -20. IF YOU ARE HEADING OUTDOORS...DRESS IN LAYERS AND WEAR A
HAT AND GLOVES.

&&

$$


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WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

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@NWSBOSTON

440 
WWUS41 KBOX 170904
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

MAZ002>004-008>012-171015-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-150117T1500Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...
NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER
404 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.

WIND CHILLS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS WERE BELOW ZERO
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL NOT REACH THE THRESHOLD OF 15 BELOW
ZERO. 

PEOPLE GOING OUTSIDE THIS MORNING SHOULD STILL EXPECT CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. DRESS IN LAYERS AND WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.

$$


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY COLD AIR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES US A SHORT BREAK THE REST OF SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TOWARDS MIDWEEK BY WHICH TIME A CLIPPER
LOW WILL SKIRT SOUTH OF OUR REGION BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF
SNOW. BEHIND IT MORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS POTENTIALLY KEEPING A
COASTAL LOW WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 7 AM/12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WITH A FEW PATCHES OF HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SUNRISE. JUST ENOUGH WIND TO
KEEP THE AIR STIRRED IN EASTERN MASS AND RI WHERE TEMPS WERE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. WHERE WINDS ARE CALM TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS OR LOW TEENS.

DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS SHOULD KEEP WESTERN TEMPS NO
LOWER THAN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. IN THE EAST THE DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE TEENS WHICH SHOULD KEEP EASTERN TEMPS IN THE TEENS EXCEPT 20S
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ARCTIC FRONT AT 2 AM WAS CROSSING SOUTHERN ONTARIO. BASED ON ITS
MOVEMENT...IT SHOULD REACH NORTHWEST MASS AROUND NOON...THE MASS
PIKE AROUND 2 PM...AND THE SOUTH COAST AROUND 5 PM. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW LEADING THE
FRONT...GUSTS IN WESTERN NY ARE 25-30 KNOTS. THAT SHOULD BE MOVING
TO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

COLD ADVECTION TRAILING THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE MIXING TO AT LEAST
900 MB AND POSSIBLY 850 MB. MODEL WIND DATA SHOWS WINDS OF 35-40
KNOTS IN THIS LAYER AVAILABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS BRING THE WINDS TO AT LEAST 2000 FEET AGL AND TO 1000
FEET AGL IN SOME PLACES. CAN IT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE. SPEEDS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN UPPER MICHIGAN/LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN ONTARIO WERE GUSTING 33-36 KNOTS. SO GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 35 KNOTS ARE REASONABLE.

THE OTHER QUESTION IS PCPN WITH THE FRONT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 MB AND 925 MB BUT DRIER AIR BELOW. COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT MAY DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS TO PROMOTE SHOWERS BUT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. WE HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE ARCTIC AIR
MOVES IN. TEMPS AT 900 MB WOULD SUPPORT 30S IN CT-RI-SOUTHEAST
MASS AND 20S ACROSS THE NORTH. WHATEVER VALUE THEY TOP OUT
AT...EXPECT TEMPS TO START FALLING AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WITH THE COLDEST OF THE AIR MOVING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST BUT MAINTAINS AN
APPRECIABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS BLOWING MUCH OF THE TIME. THE RESULTING WIND CHILL SHOULD BE
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. VALUES IN PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH -15F AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.

MODEL FORECASTS SHOW TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AT LEAST THE SINGLE
NUMBERS. SOME SHOW MIN TEMPS ZERO TO 5 BELOW IN WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. WE ACTUALLY TOOK THE COLDER FORECASTS
AND KNOCKED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS WELL AS ANY WIND. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL BE
OVERHEAD. MIXING TO 950 MB...TEMPS -11C TO -13C...WOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. MIXING TO 925 MB...TEMPS -10C
TO -12C...WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE COLD
START WILL LIMIT MIXING...SO WE TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE
TWO WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
 - RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
 - CLIPPER LOW WEDNESDAY
 - LOOKS LIKE WE ARE BACK IN THE FREEZER THURSDAY
 - MONITORING OFFSHORE STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY

*/ OVERVIEW...

FINALLY! FORECAST GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ALLOWING FOR A
CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODEL DATA. NOT ABSOLUTELY CLEAR AS TO WHY 15.0Z
GUIDANCE THOUGH HAD DISCREPANCIES WERE MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN TODAYS
16.0Z GUIDANCE. PERHAPS A CONSEQUENCE OF MODEL HANDLING OF THE POLAR
LOW OVER FAR NE CANADA AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM N-ATLANTIC RIDGING
/BLOCKING PATTERN YIELDING A -NAO TREND/? SUBTLE SHIFTS IN BOTH
STRENGTH AND POSITION HAVE OCCURRED UPON RUN-TO-RUN COMPARISON OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. MAYBE THE FACT THAT ASSOCIATED ENERGY IS NOW JUST
BECOMING BETTER SAMPLED? IT COULD BE JUST THE OBSERVATION THAT
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULTY IN MODELING FURTHER WITH TIME THE
MAGNITUDE OF TELECONNECTIONS. NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND AO SIGNALS WERE
INITIALLY FORECAST IN THE PAST WEEK...BUT NOW THE LATEST GUIDANCE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS STRUGGLES WITH RESPECT TO THE MAGNITUDE
OF -AO / -NAO / -EPO TRENDS FURTHER OUT IN TIME. IT WAS WITH THE
15.0Z GUIDANCE THAT STRONGER NEGATIVE SIGNALS WERE THEN ADVERTISED
BUT THAT HAS SINCE LESSENED. BUT OVERALL THE GUIDANCE SEEMS BETTER
NOW...SO WILL PREVAIL WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF FORECAST GUIDANCE.

*/ DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

WINDS TURNING S AND INCREASING WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE N-
STREAM IMPULSE. WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...GOING ON A NON-
DIURNAL BINGE THEREAFTER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FORECAST.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING...

LESSER FORECAST AMPLIFICATION OF NEGATIVELY-TRENDING TELECONNECTIONS
AND A SUBTLE SHIFT E OF THE RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE N-ATLANTIC
SEEMINGLY ALLOWS A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME TO MAINTAIN OVER S NEW ENGLAND
WITH PHASING AND STORM AMPLIFICATION OCCURRING DOWN-STREAM BENEATH
THE NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW PATTERN. A
CONSENSUS BLEND HAS ROUGHLY A 1000 MB LOW TRACKING NNE ACROSS SE NEW
ENGLAND IN VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE W-
MOST TRACK FROM THE 16.0Z EC. WOULD CONSIDER THE NW RETROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE LOW BACK TO LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVE
TILT OF THE H5 TROUGH. BUT FOR NOW WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND.
LETS BREAK IT DOWN:

PRECIPITATION...

WITH ARCTIC AIR HELD UP ACROSS CANADA BY THE N-STREAM IMPULSE...AND
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FUNNELING N THROUGH WARM-CONVEYOR-BELT / LLJ
/PWATS OF OVER 0.75-INCHES +1 SD/...FORECAST APPEARS MAINLY RAIN.

SHOWERS LOOK TO ENVELOP THE REGION TOWARDS MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH THE
BULK OF THE RAIN OCCURRING DURING THE LATER-HALF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
MONDAY. THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF FORECAST GUIDANCE ADVERTISES TOTAL
PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES.

SO BELIEVE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT STILL EXISTS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR URBAN / POOR-DRAINAGE / SMALL-STREAM FLOODING. WITH THE GROUND
FAIRLY WELL FROZEN AND IMPERVIOUS...MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME RUNOFF.

POSSIBLE WINTRY-MIX TO THE W WHEREVER SHALLOW COLD AIR CAN REMAIN
CONFINED AS LOW-LEVEL PROFILES BETWEEN H85-925 LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE-
FREEZING / > -2C THRESHOLD TOWARDS SNOW/. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS
VARY AMONG THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN HIGH-
RES AND LOW-RES MODELS. CONFIDENCE WANES AS TO WHETHER IMPACTS WILL
EXIST. BETTER CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER AS THE STORM LIFTS N BEHIND
WHICH W/NW FLOW USHERS COLDER AIR ALLOWING ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW...ALBEIT BRIEF AS DRIER AIR INTERCEDES AS THE
STORM DEEPENS TO THE N. NOT THINKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS.

WIND...

A MODEL AVERAGE OF WINDS AT 1-2 KFT IS AROUND 45 MPH OUT OF THE S
FOR SUNDAY. A STOUT INVERSION IS FORECAST JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
WHICH WOULD LIMIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER THE SURFACE...THAT IS IF MODEL
2M TEMPERATURES ARE CORRECT. SHOULD WE WARM TOWARDS 50-DEGREES OR
ABOVE THERE IS GREATER PROPENSITY FOR WINDS TO MIX-DOWN. NOW THAT
THE OCEAN IS COLDER AVERAGING AROUND 42-DEGREES...THE POTENTIAL OF
STRONG WINDS FOR COASTLINE COMMUNITIES IS HAMPERED. HAVE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG WINDS FOR INTERIOR AREAS OF SE NEW ENGLAND BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ANY LONGER TOWARDS CONSIDERING WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINES.

COASTAL FLOODING...

A BOSTON HIGH TIDE OF 11.2 FT IS FORECAST MONDAY MORNING CONCURRENT
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER S NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
FORECAST WINDS WILL BE INITIALLY S BACKING OUT OF THE W WITH STORM
PASSAGE...THERE REMAINS A NON-ZERO THREAT AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR STORM-SURGE SHOULD AN E-ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW MANIFEST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THOUGH THE RISK APPEARS MUCH LESS AS WAS
THEN ADVERTISED BY THE 15.0Z FORECAST GUIDANCE...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND ARCTIC AIRMASS USHERED S ACROSS THE
REGION VIA NW-FLOW...BLUSTERY MONDAY WHILE RELAXING INTO TUESDAY. A
DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW-NORMAL AS A -10C
AIRMASS AT H925 SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. OFFSHORE OCEAN-EFFECT
STRATUS.

WEDNESDAY...

BOTH EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE / DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS COMING BACK ON
TRACK WITH THE CLIPPER-LOW S OF OUR REGION. INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
SNOW-ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE S-
COAST.

THURSDAY...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND ARCTIC AIR ADVECT S BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER-LOW ADVECTED BY NW-FLOW. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.NEAR-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH PATCHES OF CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 7500 FEET
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

TODAY...VFR WITH INCREASING WIND. AN ARCTIC FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH DURING MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. THIS MAY GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBYS BRIEFLY 1-2 MILES...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING DURING THE NIGHT. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND EAST OF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.
THESE MAY CLIP THE OUTER CAPE WITH VSBYS 1-2 MILES...BUT WILL
MAINLY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

SATURDAY... VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. INCREASING S WINDS ALONG WITH MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. COULD
SEE SOME LOW-END VFR ALONG THE S-COAST BY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STORM. MVFR-IFR. RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS
ACROSS W MA. STRONG S-WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORM BACKING OUT OF THE NW
WITH PASSAGE. LLWS IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. GUSTY NW-WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.NEAR-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE

TODAY...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY. OBSERVED WINDS
UPSTREAM ARE GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO THIS
LEVEL LATER IN THE MORNING. ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CROSS THE WATERS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OBSERVED WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT YESTERDAY WERE GUSTING TO AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND
MODEL FORECASTS SHOW SIMILAR VALUES FOR OUR WATERS LATER TODAY.
THESE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 5 TO 8 FOOT SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

BASED ON THE EXPECTED WIND...WE HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR
ALL OF OUR WATERS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN MASS
WATERS...LESSER CONFIDENCE ON THE WATERS SOUTH OF RHODE ISLAND.

TONIGHT...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THE MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH SOME
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING
THROUGH THIS TIME. EXPECT WINDS MORE AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATE AT NIGHT. BASED ON THE WIND...COLD ADVECTION...AND
SEA TEMPS WE ARE EXPECTING A MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ON THE EASTERN MASS WATERS BUT ALSO AS FAR WEST
AS BUZZARDS BAY. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
TONGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET WILL LINGER MUCH
OF THE NIGHT ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE WIND
AND ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS AND SEAS MAY
START THE DAY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW THOSE THRESHOLDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S WINDS. COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS BY MORNING ALONG
WITH SHOWERS. WAVES INCREASING 5-6 FEET ON THE S- AND NE-WATERS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STORM. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. STRONG S-WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORM
BACKING OUT OF THE NW WITH PASSAGE. GALES POSSIBLE. SHORT RESIDENCY
TIME OF THE STORM YIELDING SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE S/SE OUTER
WATERS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GUSTY NW-WINDS POSSIBLY UP TO GALE FORCE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH
TIME. INITIAL WAVE ACTION OF 6-8 FEET ON THE S/SE OUTER WATERS
DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET BY DUSK TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008-009.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ231-250-251-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

MAZ002>004-008-009-170915-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
410 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL ADVISORY

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL ADVISORY

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG
WITH URBAN / POOR-DRAINAGE / SMALL-STREAM FLOODING AND STRONG
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WINTRY MIX IN THE FORM OF SNOW / SLEET / FREEZING RAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF OUR REGION
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE OF SNOW AND IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ002>004-MAZ005>007-010>024-026-RIZ001>008-170915-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-
NANTUCKET MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
410 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
SOUTH-CENTRAL...EASTERN...NORTHEASTERN...SOUTHEASTERN...AND
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG
WITH URBAN / POOR-DRAINAGE / SMALL-STREAM FLOODING AND STRONG
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WINTRY MIX IN THE FORM OF SNOW / SLEET / FREEZING RAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF OUR REGION
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE OF SNOW AND IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ231-250-251-254-255-170915-
CAPE COD BAY-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
410 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EST
SATURDAY...

...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING
   FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ256-170915-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
410 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ235-237-170915-
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
410 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230-236-170915-
BOSTON HARBOR-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
410 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ232>234-170915-
NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
410 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING
   FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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