Special Weather Statement, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1245 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES AFFECT THE REGION WITH HEAVY SNOW
FOR MANY LOCATIONS...WITH A MIX OF ICE ACROSS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY LINGER CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS ANOTHER DOSE OF VERY COLD AIR STARTING
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*/ 1230 PM UPDATE...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS
 - MIX OF SLEET / FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST AND SE MA
 - CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE AND ISLANDS
 - AS THE STORM SWEEPS OUT...CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW
 - CONTINUED IMPACTS TO TRAVEL INTO THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING

*/ OVERVIEW...

2M TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE A HASSLE! NOTING THE EMERGENCE OF
LOW PRESSURE S OF NEW ENGLAND SWEEPING E AND DEEPENING WITH THE
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...FEEL THE WARM-LAYER INDICATED BY THE DUAL-POL
CORRELATION COEFFICIENT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF ABOVE-FREEZING
AIR ARE AT THEIR LIMIT. THE DIVIDING LINE APPEARS TO BE SET FROM
AROUND THE HARFORD METRO TOWARDS N PROVIDENCE ON UP INTO BOSTON.
IT WAS THE REGIONAL-CANADIAN MODEL 2-3 DAYS AGO WHICH SHOWED THIS
VERY WELL! POSSIBLE TO SAY IT IS 2-0 WITH THE LAST 2 STORMS?

ASIDE...N-WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE INTERIOR BACKING NOW TO THE
NW WITH THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF THE WINDS. COLD FRONT STARTING
TO SLIDE INTO S NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF WHICH S-FLOW PER H85 VERTICAL
WIND PROFILERS IS FUNNELING MOISTURE N ACROSS OUR REGION. EXPECT
BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH LOCALIZED H85 F-GEN AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT /OVER-RUNNING SETUP/ ASCENDING SLANTWISE ALONG A TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT.

SO SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1-2 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR...SO SNOWFALL GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPPED TO THE 14-18 INCH
RAIN. NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE INTERMITTENT ALONG
THE E-COAST WITH THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH.

TOWARDS THE SE...WILL SEE MIXING TO ALL RAIN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS PRIOR TO COLD FRONT BEHIND WHICH THE DEEPENING LOW
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF REARWARD
BANDING WITH OCEAN- EFFECT SNOWS PER N WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FURTHER DETAILS WITHIN THE HIGHLIGHTS BELOW:

*/ PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

MIX OF SNOW / SLEET / FREEZING RAIN TOWARDS RAIN FARTHER S ALONG
THE S-COAST INCLUDING THE CAPE / ISLANDS. IT IS WITHIN THE SE-
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE THAT WILL REMAIN AS A MIX.

AGAIN WILL SEE A CHANGE-BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM EXITS E AND NW-
WINDS FOLLOW USHERING COLDER AIR THROUGH ALL-LEVELS BACK INTO THE
REGION DURING WHICH TIME AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO ACCUM IS
POSSIBLE. THIS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF REARWARD BANDING AND OCEAN-
EFFECT PROCESSES.

SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND AND N OF HARTFORD-BOSTON-PROVIDENCE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 14 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND
14 TO 18 INCHES. ALREADY SOME REPORTS GATHERED THAT EXCEED A FOOT!

LESSER AMOUNTS S WITH MIXING OF SLEET / FREEZING RAIN WHICH WILL
AMOUNT UP AROUND 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES. AREA OF BEST ICE ACCRETION /
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FROM S RI INTO SE MA. AMOUNTS AROUND 4 TO 8
INCHES...LOWEST OVER THE ISLANDS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES.

*/ STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...

GUSTY WINDS BEING OBSERVED ALL ALONG THE E/NE MA COASTLINE. NEAR-
TO FULL-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 35
MPH. POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERMITTENT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

*/ TOWARDS TONIGHT...

A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND
CAPE/ISLANDS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AS THE COASTAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPS PLUMMET FROM THE 30S DOWN TO TEENS IN THE
MATTER OF JUST 2-3 HOURS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TRAVEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WET/SLUSHY ROADS
QUICKLY TURNING TO ICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...

STORM WILL BE RACING NE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING.
GUSTY N THEN NW WINDS TO 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...MAINLY
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE EVENING WILL
QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOW IN E MA...THEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER THE OUTER CAPE AS STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP OVER THE OCEAN WITH NW FLOW.

AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY...IT WILL DRAG FRIGID AIR SOUTH INTO SNE
FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW IN
CENTRAL AND W MA AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN N CT...RI AND E MA...BUT
TEENS OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

OVERVIEW...
NOTING AN OVERALL GENERAL LONG WAVE TROUGHING TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...THEN WILL BECOME NEARLY ZONAL
FOR A TIME LATER THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SPECIFICALLY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS AROUND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MILDER AIR AS WINDS
SHIFT TO SW. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER BATCH OF ARCTIC
AIR TO THE REGION DURING THURSDAY. BEYOND THIS...NOTING MAJOR
CHANGES ON THE 00Z MODEL SUITE...NAMELY THE ECMWF. THIS IS BECAUSE
OF AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVING IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
AROUND THU-FRI TIMEFRAME WHICH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING OUT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST. THIS WOULD SLOW THE PASSING FRONT DOWN AND MAY EVEN HAVE
LOW PRES FORMING ON IT. QUITE THE SOLUTION SPREAD AMONGST THE
MODEL ENSEMBLES IN HANDLING THIS FEATURE AS WELL.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE TUE-THU TIMEFRAME...
THEN BECOMES VERY LOW WITH THIS CHANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR FRI
INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR THIS PACKAGE...WENT ALONG WITH A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED TO
ENSEMBLES AND KEPT A DRY BUT COLD FORECAST GOING.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
NORTHERN PORTION OF HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING A COLD NW WIND FLOW IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND BEGIN TO BACK TO MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION LATER IN THE DAY. WILL STILL SEE CHILLY TEMPS IN PLACE
THOUGH WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS...EXCEPT 20-25
ALONG THE S COAST.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM THE W. WITH DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE ESPECIALLY INLAND...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AWAY FROM THE COAST...RANGING TO THE MID TEENS OR
SO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE.

WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRES AXIS MOVES E WED MORNING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK LOW PRES ON THIS FRONT HEADS INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED/WED NIGHT. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL WORK
IN ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PASSING LOW TO BRING SCT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR AND N OF THE MASS PIKE ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT...THEN COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS WED NIGHT.
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE MILDER THAN THE SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS N MA AND THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES
RANGING TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG THE S COAST...WHERE THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE THU MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY
COLD AIR. SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET AS N WINDS INCREASE OVER THE MILDER OCEAN WATERS WITH
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW INTO THU NIGHT. HIGHS ON THU WILL ONLY RISE A
FEW DEGS FROM WEDNESDAY/S LOWS...MAINLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT LOWER
30S OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THU NIGHT WILL BE FRIGID ONCE AGAIN
WITH LOWS DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA
RANGING TO AROUND 20 ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET. VERY LOW
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NOTING WIDE MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
DIGGING AN H5 TROUGH JUST W OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH WOULD SLOW
THE PASSING FRONT OFFSHORE. THEN...LOW PRES MAY MOVE N ALONG THIS
FRONT OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND THE THU NIGHT/FRI
TIMEFRAME. WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GGEM ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES IN
KEEPING THE PATTERN MORE PROGRESSIVE...STUCK CLOSE TO THOSE.
BROUGHT HIGH PRES E ON FRI...THEN A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS WITH MORE COLD AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS
 - MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING

*/ TODAY...

IFR-VLIFR WITH SN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MVFR-IFR WITH THE WINTRY
MIX OF SLEET / FREEZING RAIN. MVFR WITH RA. CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TOWARDS EVENING AS PRECIP
CHANGES BACK OVER SN. BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR WITH TRANSITION ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...BUT REMAINING IFR OVER E/SE MA. STRONG E/NE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH N-WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. 25 TO 35 KTS.

*/ TONIGHT...

MVFR-IFR LINGERING WITH -SN CONCLUDING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. LINGERING
LONGEST FOR E/SE-COASTAL MA TERMINALS. IMPROVING VFR W TO E WITH
TIME. WINDS BACKING NW GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KTS...DECREASING
TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

*/ TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

INITIAL NW-GUSTS 25-30 KTS OTHERWISE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VEERING S WITH TIME. VFR. INCREASING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

*/ TERMINAL-SPECIFIC DISCUSSIONS...

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IN EFFECT TILL
20Z WITH NEAR- OR AT-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. HELD 1/2SM SN THROUGH
22Z PER COLLABORATION WITH CWSU WITH POTENTIAL MIXING WITH SLEET.
SNOW TO LINGER TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WITH OCEAN-EFFECT ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD WITH N-WINDS AND SN. VSBYS
LIKELY TO WOBBLE. LOWER WITHIN HEAVIER BANDS. DO NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE VSBYS FALL AT TIMES TO 1/4SM +SN. TEMPO GROUPS WOULD HAVE
CROWDED TAF...SO PREVAILED WITH MOST LIKELY CONDITION OBSERVED ON
AVERAGE OVER AN HOUR-LONG PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AWAY FROM THE S COAST...MIXED
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG S COAST.

*/ THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS...IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM W-E DURING THE DAY. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET THU NIGHT WITH COLD NW WINDS.

*/ FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1230 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A BRIEF PERIOD OF EASTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE S COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. FURTHER TO THE N WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS BETTER...NE WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT IS EXPECTED FOR NE MA
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE LOW MOVES NE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE...N THEN NW GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A GUST TO 45 KT THIS EVENING OVER NE MA
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS
BY LATE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT COMBINED WITH
ROUGH SEAS WILL RESULTING AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
DEVELOPING. A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL OF THE
WATERS NOT INCLUDING BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON
THOUGH MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS UP TO 7-10
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...SLOWLY SUBSIDING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE MORNING...THEN WILL LESSEN.

WEDNESDAY...
WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT MAY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT BACK TO NW BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH
GUSTS INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. LOW PROB OF GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE
OUTER WATERS THU NIGHT. MAY SEE MORE FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY...
W-NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
  MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG BOSTON/S SOUTH SHORE BUT NO
  MAJOR PROBLEMS EXPECTED ***

SEAS WILL NOT REALLY BE RAMPED UP IN TIME FOR THE MID TO LATE MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HOWEVER...THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND TO RESULT IN A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM
SURGE.  ITS MARGINAL...BUT MAY SEE SOME POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING MAINLY ACROSS BOSTON/S SOUTH SHORE.  WHILE SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...AREAS FROM HULL...TO SCITUATE...TO
MARSHFIELD AND DUXBURY WERE HIT VERY HARD FROM LAST WEEK/S
BLIZZARD. POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY DELAY SOME OF THE
CLEANUP AND REPAIRS ON GOING IN THAT REGION...SO FELT IT WAS WORTH
ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION.

THERE IS ANOTHER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE LATE MONDAY EVENING...BUT
ITS A FOOT LOWER AND BY THEN WINDS ARE ALREADY OFFSHORE.
THEREFORE...ITS REALLY JUST THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE THAT WERE
CONCERNED ABOUT AND ANY ISSUES FROM THAT WILL LIKELY BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...

WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CHILLY AS WELL...BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE THE RECORD COLDEST MAX
TEMPS FOR THE DATE.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON          14 SET IN 1917
PROVIDENCE      12 SET IN 1917
WORCESTER        8 SET IN 1955
WINDSOR LOCKS   12 SET IN 1917
BLUE HILL OBS    9 SET IN 1917

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF
CLIMATE...WFO BOX STAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>015-017-018-020-021-026-RIZ001>007-030930-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
426 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...ALL
OF MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT THE ISLANDS...AND RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ALSO...WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW
ZERO. AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE MAY HAVE
WIND CHILLS OF 15 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MAZ023-024-RIZ008-030930-
DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
426 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ISLANDS OF MASSACHUSETTS
AND RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MAZ016-019-022-030930-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-
426 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON
EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ250-251-254>256-030930-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
426 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.
   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.
   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING.

NORTH WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ231>235-237-030930-
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
426 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.
   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.
   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ230-236-030930-
BOSTON HARBOR-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
426 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

MAZ005>007-013>016-018-019-021645-
EASTERN NORFOLK-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN NORFOLK-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN
PLYMOUTH-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY-EASTERN
PLYMOUTH-SUFFOLK-
1021 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

...LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OCCURRING FROM BOSTON TO
AMESBURY...

AS OF 1010 AM THIS MORNING...BLIZZARD OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTLINE. HEAVY SNOW WAS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE-QUARTER MILE
OR LESS AND WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 MPH IN THESE AREAS.
THIS INCLUDES BOSTON LOGAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 1230 PM NORTH OF
BOSTON...BUT THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET IN THE BOSTON
METRO AREA BY THAT TIME WHICH WOULD IMPROVE VISIBILITIES.

MOTORISTS AND PEDESTRIANS ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS NORTH COAST SHOULD
BE ADVISED THAT FALLING SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS...PLEASE USE EXTRA
CAUTION.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOSTON...CAMBRIDGE...QUINCY...LYNN...NEWTON...LAWRENCE...
SOMERVILLE...HAVERHILL...WALTHAM...MALDEN...BROOKLINE...MEDFORD...
WEYMOUTH...REVERE...PEABODY...METHUEN...ARLINGTON...EVERETT...SALEM
AND BEVERLY.

&&

LAT...LON 4281 7087 4281 7081 4271 7079 4277 7082
      4273 7085 4267 7075 4264 7076 4265 7069
      4259 7068 4254 7090 4236 7104 4237 7105
      4230 7105 4225 7088 4233 7089 4204 7065
      4213 7101 4234 7122 4275 7113 4287 7082
TIME...MOT...LOC 1513Z 240DEG 49KT 4267 7063

FIELD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
156 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>023-026-RIZ001>007-021945-
WINDHAM-TOLLAND-HARTFORD-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN
NORFOLK-SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN WORCESTER-EASTERN
NORFOLK-BARNSTABLE-NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY-NORTHERN
WORCESTER-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN PLYMOUTH-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX-EASTERN
PLYMOUTH-EASTERN HAMPDEN-WESTERN HAMPDEN-SOUTHERN
BRISTOL-DUKES-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH-NORTHERN BRISTOL-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX
COUNTY-WESTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE-EASTERN
HAMPSHIRE-NEWPORT-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE-WESTERN KENT-EASTERN
KENT-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE-WASHINGTON-BRISTOL-
156 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015

...SNOW INCREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
FLASH FREEZE BEGINNING TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD...

AT 145 PM EST...SNOW WAS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXCEPT SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND WHERE THERE WAS STILL RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN.
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING FROM BOSTON TO CAPE ANN.
SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE THE ENTIRE
PRECIPITATION AREA BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING.

AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...A FLASH FREEZE HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS ESSEX AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED NEARLY
10 DEGREES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR AT BEVERLY. THE TEMPERATURE WAS
IN THE UPPER 20S IN BOSTON WHILE JUST A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE WEST
IT WAS 9 DEGREES IN CONCORD AND LEXINGTON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND...AND ON CAPE COD
LATER TONIGHT. SLUSHY CONDITIONS OR STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL
FREEZE QUICKLY MAKING FOR VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

MOTORISTS AND PEDESTRIANS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTREME
CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
THE FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 4162 7001 4154 7001 4164 7002 4145 7084
      4174 7071 4141 7095 4179 7137 4134 7186
      4133 7190 4137 7183 4142 7180 4156 7295
      4274 7302 4286 7082 4230 7105 4183 7004
      4185 7004 4207 7024 4208 7022 4205 7006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 240DEG 49KT 4231 7240

FIELD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
314 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>022-026-RIZ001>007-022145-
WINDHAM-TOLLAND-HARTFORD-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN
NORFOLK-SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN WORCESTER-EASTERN
NORFOLK-BARNSTABLE-NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY-NORTHERN
WORCESTER-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN PLYMOUTH-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX-EASTERN
PLYMOUTH-EASTERN HAMPDEN-WESTERN HAMPDEN-SOUTHERN BRISTOL-SOUTHERN
PLYMOUTH-NORTHERN BRISTOL-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY-WESTERN
FRANKLIN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE-EASTERN
HAMPSHIRE-NEWPORT-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE-WESTERN KENT-EASTERN
KENT-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE-WASHINGTON-BRISTOL-
314 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND FLASH FREEZE...

AT 310 PM...VERY COLD AIR CONTINUED TO PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST. THE TEMPERATURE HAD DROPPED INTO THE MID TEENS FROM
PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON AND AREAS IN SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND
WESTERN CAPE COD WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS BY 430 PM. ANY SLUSH OR
STANDING WATER WILL RAPIDLY FREEZE CAUSING HAZARDOUS ROAD AND
PAVEMENT CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WAS FALLING ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXCEPT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS MEANS THAT SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW. THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTALS CLOSER TO 15 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD WITH LOCAL
20 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

MOTORISTS AND PEDESTRIANS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTREME
CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
THE FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 4240 7288 4271 7226 4269 7062 4230 7105
      4234 7088 4220 7072 4221 7071 4220 7071
      4156 7048 4152 7069 4175 7063 4174 7071
      4150 7113 4172 7116 4165 7126 4179 7137
      4140 7153 4164 7179 4171 7224 4158 7294
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 240DEG 49KT 4275 7134

FIELD