Small Craft Advisory 161, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

460 
WHUS71 KBOX 112307
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
607 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015

ANZ230-120015-
/O.EXP.KBOX.SC.Y.0161.000000T0000Z-150211T2300Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-
607 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

$$

ANZ236-120015-
/O.EXP.KBOX.SC.Y.0160.000000T0000Z-150211T2300Z/
NARRAGANSETT BAY-
607 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

$$

ANZ232-120715-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0160.000000T0000Z-150212T0400Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.UP.Y.0006.150213T0500Z-150213T2000Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0010.150213T0500Z-150213T1600Z/
NANTUCKET SOUND-
607 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

* FREEZING SPRAY...AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LATE 
  THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED ON VESSELS. OPERATING A VESSEL IN
FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE HAZARDOUS. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT VESSELS
BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE COUNTER MEASURES BEFORE PUTTING
TO SEA OR ENTER THE ADVISORY AREA. THE COAST GUARD URGES MARINERS
TO ENSURE THEIR LIFE SAVING EQUIPMENT REMAINS FREE OF ICE.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ233-234-120715-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0160.000000T0000Z-150212T0200Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.UP.Y.0006.150213T0500Z-150213T2000Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0010.150213T0500Z-150213T1600Z/
VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
607 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  35 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

* FREEZING SPRAY...AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LATE 
  THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED ON VESSELS. OPERATING A VESSEL IN
FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE HAZARDOUS. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT VESSELS
BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE COUNTER MEASURES BEFORE PUTTING
TO SEA OR ENTER THE ADVISORY AREA. THE COAST GUARD URGES MARINERS
TO ENSURE THEIR LIFE SAVING EQUIPMENT REMAINS FREE OF ICE.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ231-120715-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0160.000000T0000Z-150212T0400Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.UP.Y.0006.150213T0500Z-150213T2000Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0010.150213T0500Z-150213T1600Z/
CAPE COD BAY-
607 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET.

* FREEZING SPRAY...AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LATE 
  THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED ON VESSELS. OPERATING A VESSEL IN
FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE HAZARDOUS. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT VESSELS
BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE COUNTER MEASURES BEFORE PUTTING
TO SEA OR ENTER THE ADVISORY AREA. THE COAST GUARD URGES MARINERS
TO ENSURE THEIR LIFE SAVING EQUIPMENT REMAINS FREE OF ICE.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-120715-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0160.000000T0000Z-150212T0600Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.UP.Y.0006.150213T0500Z-150213T2000Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0010.150213T0500Z-150213T1600Z/
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
607 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

* FREEZING SPRAY...AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LATE 
  THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED ON VESSELS. OPERATING A VESSEL IN
FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE HAZARDOUS. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT VESSELS
BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE COUNTER MEASURES BEFORE PUTTING
TO SEA OR ENTER THE ADVISORY AREA. THE COAST GUARD URGES MARINERS
TO ENSURE THEIR LIFE SAVING EQUIPMENT REMAINS FREE OF ICE.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ250-251-254-120715-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0160.000000T0000Z-150212T2200Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.UP.Y.0006.150213T0500Z-150213T2000Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0010.150213T0500Z-150213T1600Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
607 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FEET.

* FREEZING SPRAY...AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LATE 
  THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED ON VESSELS. OPERATING A VESSEL IN
FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE HAZARDOUS. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT VESSELS
BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE COUNTER MEASURES BEFORE PUTTING
TO SEA OR ENTER THE ADVISORY AREA. THE COAST GUARD URGES MARINERS
TO ENSURE THEIR LIFE SAVING EQUIPMENT REMAINS FREE OF ICE.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-120715-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0160.000000T0000Z-150212T2200Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.UP.Y.0006.150213T0500Z-150213T2000Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0010.150213T0500Z-150213T1600Z/
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
607 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FEET.

* FREEZING SPRAY...AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED ON VESSELS. OPERATING A VESSEL IN
FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE HAZARDOUS. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT VESSELS
BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE COUNTER MEASURES BEFORE PUTTING
TO SEA OR ENTER THE ADVISORY AREA. THE COAST GUARD URGES MARINERS
TO ENSURE THEIR LIFE SAVING EQUIPMENT REMAINS FREE OF ICE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS
WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT. NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH AN ARCTIC CHILL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT. AXIS OF LIGHT SNOW HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH BUT STILL WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SE MA INTO PORTIONS OF
RI. VERY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN SOUNDINGS TONIGHT WITH SATURATED
COLUMN UP THROUGH 900 MB AND -12C AND NE BL FLOW SO EXPECT
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THIS
EVENING..BUT BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS SE COASTAL MA PER HIRES
GUIDANCE. LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS W NEW ENG AS
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES.

MIN TEMPS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
INTERIOR AS THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE
THE CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. ALONG THE COAST MINS WILL HOLD IN
THE TEENS...WITH 20S OUTER CAPE/ACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ROBUST MID LEVEL TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH
PARENT LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LARGE
SCALE MODEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL YIELD LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ACCUM DURING THE DAY WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND AN
INCH...AND SNOW WILL LIKELY BE TAPERING OFF IN THE CT VALLEY BY
EVENING.

POTENT TRAILING SHORTWAVE INITIATES SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH
OF THE BENCHMARK THU EVENING WITH EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING OCCURRING
THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR TOO LATE AND TOO FAR
OFFSHORE TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO SNE. THE STORM MAY WRAP A
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW BACK ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND FAR SE
MA THU EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW LINGERING BACK ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY
MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER
THE OUTER CAPE. TOTAL ACCUM MAY REACH 2-4 INCHES OVER THE
CAPE/ISLANDS...WITH 1-2 INCHES BACK TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

AS THE STORM RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFFSHORE...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL USHER ARCTIC AIR INTO SNE. MINS WILL
DROP NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN
WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT TEENS CAPE/ISLANDS. WIND
CHILLS BY EARLY FRI MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND 15 TO 20 BELOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - COLD WIND CHILLS FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT
 - SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN
 - ARCTIC CHILL EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
IT APPEARS THAT THE POSITIVE AO/NAO AND PNA PATTERN REMAINS THE
DOMINANT PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. NOT SURPRISINGLY...SINCE A
LOOK AT THE UPPER LVLS SHOWS A DOMINANT POSITIVE PNA SIGNAL ACROSS
THE CONUS...WITH DEEP TROFING IN THE E SUPPORTED BY NEARLY
CONSISTENT W COAST RIDGING. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR
CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WAVE ACTION TO DEAL WITH THROUGHOUT.
THE FIRST LATE THIS WEEK...ONLY BROADENS AND DIGS THE TROF FURTHER
S...SETTING THE TABLE FOR THE VERY COLD/ARCTIC SOURCED WAVE FOR
THE LATE WEEK. THIS WAVE...WITH DYNAMIC TROP PROGGED TO DIP BELOW
500HPA...IS VERY ROBUST...AND AS NOTED IN THE LAST FEW RUNS...IS
LIKELY TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND AS IT GENERATES
SECONDARY LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THIS JUNCTURE...EVEN
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS LESS SUPPRESSED AND SHOWS BETTER
CLUSTERING WITH ENSEMBLES...SO HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT A
PLOWABLE SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING FROM THE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
TIMEFRAME. VERY COLD AIR FOLLOWS...WITH H5 HEIGHTS DIPPING BELOW
500DM AND CIPS ANALOGS STILL SUPPORTING H85 TEMPS POSSIBLY
REACHING BELOW -20C. THIS IS CURIOUS THOUGH...AS YET ONE MORE WAVE
IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER OR POSSIBLY EVEN JUST INSIDE BY THE MID
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. DON/T LIKE THIS SOLUTION AS THE NAO/AO AND
PNA REMAIN POSITIVE SUGGESTING THIS INSIDE PASS IS UNLIKELY. WILL
BE LEANING MORE HEAVILY ON ENSEMBLES FOR THAT PERIOD.

DETAILS...

FRI INTO EARLY SAT...
WITH LOW PRES RAPIDLY DEEPENING TO THE E...COULD SEE A
CONTINUATION OF OCEAN ENHANCED SNOWS UNDER N-NW PRES GRADIENT
DURING THE DAY ON FRI...MAINLY FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...WILL BE EXPERIENCING CLEARING ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH WITH
COOLING CONDITIONS. H85 TEMPS WILL BE FALLING BACK TO -17C TO
-20C...SO THE COLD CONTINUES. HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS FRI
AND SAT...AND WIND CHILLS FALLING BACK TO POTENTIALLY ADVISORY
LEVELS /-15F OR LOWER/ FRI NIGHT.

LATE SAT INTO SUN...
AS WAS ALLUDED TO YESTERDAY...IT WAS WISE NOT TO GIVE UP ON
ANOTHER DOUBLE BARREL SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL SETUP IS SIMILAR TO THE STORM FOR
TOMORROW...WITH A CLIPPER SHIFTING ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING MID
ATLANTIC STORM...IT APPEARS THE ENSEMBLES WERE MORE PRECISE WITH
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ARCTIC TROF. MODELS INDICATE A DEEP TROP FOLD
WHERE THE 2.0 DYNAMIC TROP REACHES AS LOW AS 550HPA AND THE 1.5 AS
LOW AS 750HPA. THEREFORE...GIVEN THE COLD AND VERY AMPLIFIED
POTENTIAL NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE GFS IS LIKELY JUST TOO FAR N
SO WILL BE FAVORING THE ECMWF IN TERMS OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
WITH SOME WEIGHT TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.

WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER VERY
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING VERY CLOSE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE
TROP FOLD SUGGESTS VERY STRONG WAVELENGTH COMPRESSION WITH THE LOW
DEEPENING FROM 990S TO LOW 970S IN 12 HOURS S OF THE REGION. THIS
IS COLD...SO ONCE AGAIN P-TYPE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO ALL
SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM SHY OF 0.5 IN THE W TO AS MUCH AS 0.75
TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE E. RATIOS ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT ABOVE
THE 10 TO 1 STANDARD GIVEN THE COLD AIR AND VERY ROBUST UPWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE COLUMN...INCLUDING THE DENDRITE REGION.
THEREFORE...PLOWABLE SNOW IS LIKELY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AKIN TO SOME OF THE BIGGER STORMS WE
HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS ESPECIALLY IN THE E HALF OF THE
REGION BUT EXACT AXES REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

POTENTIALLY A 50-60 KT LLJ ACROSS THE REGION...STRONG WINDS CAN/T
BE RULED OUT HERE EITHER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. POWER OUTAGES ALSO SOMETHING OF CONCERN ESPECIALLY AT
COASTAL AREAS WHERE RATIOS WOULD BE LOWER.

THIS JET ALSO MEANS THE NEED TO WATCH TIDES. SUN AM HIGH TIDE IS
10.1 IN BOS BUT WILL NOT HAVE HAD A LONG PERIOD OF FETCH ALTHOUGH
IF THIS LOW DEEPENS AS RAPIDLY AS POTENTIALLY FORECAST...SOME
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CAN/T BE RULED OUT...BUT SURGE AT THIS
MOMENT IS LIKELY TO ACTUALLY PEAK DURING LOW TIDE.

MON AND TUE...
THE ISSUE WILL BE COLD. WITH ALL CIPS ANALOGS SUGGESTING 70
PERCENT OF MEMBERS WITH H85 TEMPS BELOW -20C. THIS WILL BE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BLUSTERY WINDS BEHIND THE STRONG LOW PRES
ESPECIALLY MON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILLS APPROACHING
ADVISORY TO POTENTIALLY EVEN WARNING CRITERIA FOR SOME /-25F/ AS
EVEN A MODESTLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO
REACH THE LOW TEENS AT THE WARMEST.

MID NEXT WEEK...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONG LOW PRES CENTER PASSING
INVOF SRN NEW ENGLAND. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS MORE
SUPPRESSED THAN THEIR 00Z AND 06Z COUNTERPARTS WITH SEVERAL
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING OFFSHORE PASS RATHER THAN THE INSIDE RUNNER.
OBVIOUSLY THIS TRACK WILL DETERMINE P-TYPE...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN FEEL STICKING CLOSER TO THE COLDER
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED BY AN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS PREFERRED...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THAT IS THE TENDENCY OF OPERATIONAL MODELS. STILL WITH A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH A RAIN OR A SNOW
SOLUTION ARE NOT GOOD. STAY TUNED AS WE APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTERIOR VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW E MA. MVFR CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO
RI. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-35 KT SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH 00Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW LINGERING ACROSS SE COASTAL MA...IMPROVING AFT MIDNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS E MA AND RI WITH LOWERING VFR CIGS WESTERN
TERMINALS. DIMINISHING WIND BECOMING LIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN THE EAST AND
LOWERING TO MVFR IN THE WEST. SNOW AND LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST MID MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. VFR IN THE WEST AS SNOW EXITS. MVFR/IFR SNOW IN E NEW ENG
IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT CAPE/ISLANDS. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR/IFR VSBYS PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVING THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS CONTINUE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI INTO SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR AFTER SNOWS END EARLY FRI. 20-30 KT NW GUSTS EARLY ON
FRI...BUT DIMINISHING BY FRI NIGHT.

SAT EVENING INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG WINTER STORM WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOWS...HIGHEST IN THE EAST. STRONG WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 40 KT AT
TIMES OUT OF THE N NEAR THE E COAST. SLIGHTLY LESS INLAND. LLWS A
CONCERN WITH UP TO 50 KT AT 2KFT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IF
THIS STORM COMES TO PASS.

MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR EXPECTED...BUT VERY COLD. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND EXPECT GUSTS TO DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU.
HOWEVER...SCA SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS. AS COASTAL
STORM INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE THU NIGHT...WILL LIKELY SEE GALE FORCE
NW WINDS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. ALSO...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR LATE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR MOVING OVER
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI INTO EARLY SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE
CONDITIONS BEGIN WITH GALES EARLY FRI...BUT THEN TAPER TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI AND FRI NIGHT SUCH THAT A
VERY SHORT PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SAT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY EARLY FRI...THEN DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY.

LATE SAT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COASTAL STORM TO THE SE OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN...LOW VSBYS AND
STRONG WINDS. WINDS COULD REACH STORM FORCE...BUT ARE LIKELY TO AT
LEAST REACH GALE FORCE OUT OF THE N DURING THE PEAK EARLY SUN.
DANGEROUS SEAS MAY EXCEED 20 FT ON THE SE WATERS.

MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GALES TO START EARLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO SMALL
CRAFTS BY LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS SUBSIDE. SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED...WITH 10-12 FT STILL POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     232.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO 3 PM
     EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233-
     234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>007-122115-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
405 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...ALL OF
MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT BERKSHIRE COUNTY...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW-END ADVISORY SNOWFALLS AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED.

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE IS NOW A MODERATE RISK FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. PLOWABLE
SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY MORNING...WIND-CHILL HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
USHERED BY BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256-122115-
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
405 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015

...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO
3 PM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.
   FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.  AT THE VERY LEAST GALES ARE LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230-236-RIZ008-122115-
BOSTON HARBOR-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
405 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.  AT THE VERY LEAST GALES ARE LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

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