Flood Watch 3, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

037 
WGUS61 KBOX 291613
FFABOX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1213 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>012-014-026-300015-
/O.CON.KBOX.FA.A.0003.150930T0600Z-151001T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...CAMBRIDGE...AYER
1213 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
  THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...HARTFORD...TOLLAND
  AND WINDHAM. IN MASSACHUSETTS...ESSEX...FRANKLIN...HAMPDEN...
  HAMPSHIRE...MIDDLESEX AND WORCESTER.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED
  AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
  POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. TOTAL
  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AREA FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
  LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN
  MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.

* FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS IS THE
  GREATEST THREAT. SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH FAST RESPONSE
  TIMES ARE ALSO SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING DUE TO RAPID RUNOFF FROM
  INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
  FLOOD AT THIS TIME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

RLG

056 
WGUS61 KBOX 292343
FFABOX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
743 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>012-014-026-300900-
/O.CON.KBOX.FA.A.0003.150930T0600Z-151001T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...CAMBRIDGE...AYER
743 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
  THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...HARTFORD...
  TOLLAND AND WINDHAM. IN MASSACHUSETTS...ESSEX...FRANKLIN...
  HAMPDEN...HAMPSHIRE...MIDDLESEX AND WORCESTER.

* FROM 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND 
  CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 
  AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
  POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. TOTAL 
  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AREA FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 
  LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN 
  MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. 

* FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS IS THE 
  GREATEST THREAT. SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH FAST RESPONSE 
  TIMES ARE ALSO SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING DUE TO RAPID RUNOFF 
  FROM INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED 
  TO FLOOD AT THIS TIME. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

210 
WGUS61 KBOX 300812
FFABOX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>012-014-026-301615-
/O.CON.KBOX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-151001T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...CAMBRIDGE...AYER
412 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
  THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...HARTFORD...
  TOLLAND AND WINDHAM. IN MASSACHUSETTS...ESSEX...FRANKLIN...
  HAMPDEN...HAMPSHIRE...MIDDLESEX AND WORCESTER.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND LAST
  INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED AN INCH
  PER HOUR AT TIMES. EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
  POSSIBLE WHICH MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. TOTAL RAINFALL
  AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AREA FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY
  HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE
  ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.

* FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS IS THE 
  GREATEST THREAT. SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH FAST RESPONSE 
  TIMES ARE ALSO SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING DUE TO RAPID RUNOFF 
  FROM INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED 
  TO FLOOD AT THIS TIME. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

178 
WGUS61 KBOX 301612
FFABOX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1212 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>012-014-026-301715-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-151001T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...CAMBRIDGE...AYER
1212 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

AS OF 1210 PM...FLOOD WARNINGS REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
AND FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

AT 1210 PM...RADAR INDICATED THAT THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT AFFECTED THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
MORNING...HAS MOVED EAST OF THE WATCH AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE FLOOD WARNINGS WERE ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS OF
1205 PM...THE THREAT FOR RENEWED AND SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD INDUCING
RAINFALL HAS COME TO AN END FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED.

$$

NMB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
417 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE REGION BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT THROUGH
LATE WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC... THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ONSHORE WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING AND HEAVY
RAIN WITH POSSIBLE INLAND FLOODING. THESE THREATS MAY PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE STALLED FRONT MAY PUSH BACK INTO S NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ADVERTISE BY THE K INDEX AND 700MB MOISTURE. AT THE SURFACE
CONTINUOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NO PLANS ON ISSUING A DENSE
FOG ADV BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE GO INTO THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.

TODAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY
DRY DAY TODAY WITH HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH JUST LIMITED ON THE LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT IS STILL
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
TODAY BUT BELIEVE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCE.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SNEAKING OUT 80F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

**WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COULD BRING FLOODING CONCERNS**
**HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES MAY BRING SPLASHOVER ON WEDNESDAY**

OVERVIEW...

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A PATTERN CHANGE ENDING THE DRY
PERIOD FOR THE REGION. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST
LATE TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE REGION WITH THE FRONT ENTERING SNE
AROUND 7AM AND REACHING THE CAPE BY 7PM WED. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AS A FEW WAVES MOVES OVERHEAD COMBINED
WITH CONTINUOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH TROPICAL CONNECTIONS. THERE
ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AS LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS
SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN A BIT. HOWEVER OVERALL GUIDANCE IS SIGNALING
THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...JUST SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SET-UP. FORECAST IS BASE ON THE
00Z GFS/EC AND HI-RES GUIDANCE. DID NOT USE THE 00Z UKMET WHICH
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER FOR THIS RUN.

RAINFALL/FLOODING...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS
SW-NE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE BERKS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING BUT APPEARS THAT WESTERN ZONES WILL START SEEING A GOOD
DELUGE OF PRECIP BY DAY BREAK. DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THE
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD
END ACROSS THE CANAL BY SUNSET. ALONG THE FRONT IS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND ANOMALOUS PWATS
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY RAIN. ALSO
NOTICED A STRONG CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD
HELP ENHANCE PRECIP AMOUNTS FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE UPCOMING 36 HOURS AS
IT IS DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT. BELIEVE LOCATIONS
COULD SEE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RIGHT NOW HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AS FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
PIKE...PER THE LATEST EC AND GFS. THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED
WORCESTER...MIDDLESEX AND ESSEX COUNTY TO THE WATCH. WILL LET THE
DAY SHIFT EVALUATE IF THE WATCH NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.

THUNDER...

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. K VALUES WILL INCREASE WELL
ABOVE 30 WITH SHOWALTERS BELOW 0. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AS CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 1000 J/KG HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
CLOSE TO 40 KTS...SO A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE. IF CONVECTION DOES
DEVELOP...WITHIN THIS VERY MOISTURE ATMOSPHERE THEN WE COULD SEE
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TOTAL WHICH COULD LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING.

WIND...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
850MB AROUND 30KTS. LLJ STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW REACHES CLOSER TO 40-45 KTS. AM NOT ANTICIPATE A LOT TO THIS
WIND TO MIX DOWN SO COULD SEE AROUND 20-25 MPH GUSTS. HOWEVER IF
CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP COULD SEE GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH WITHIN ANY
STORM.

CONCLUSION...

STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG APPROACH COLD FRONT WITHIN A
DEVELOPING CONFLUENT 850-700MB FLOW IN A SW-NE BAND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PWAT VALUES
OVER 2 INCHES WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE REGION...LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BEST LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA AS WELL AS NORTHERN MASS. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED
A FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT LOCATION. COULD ALSO SEE SOME CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WED WHICH COULD ENHANCE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS. SEE BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCCASIONAL RAIN AND PERSISTENT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
  WEEKEND
* MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE THU AFTERNOON AND FRI
  AFTERNOON TIDE CYCLES
* POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IMPACTS FRIDAY
  POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG PERSISTENT BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTH ATLANTIC AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS GT LAKES
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SE. RESULT IS A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE AS IT INTERACTS WITH BLOCKING RIDGE
WITH PERSISTENT ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME ALIGNED ACROSS SE NEW ENG.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER PULSE OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE BY FRI INTO
SAT AS FRONT BACKS IN FROM THE WEST WITH SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF TS JOAQUIN. TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL BE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF TS JOAQUIN WHICH IS VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
GOOD MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONT MOVING TO SE NEW ENG INVOF
OF CAPE/ISLANDS BY WED EVENING BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF NEW ENG
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SE
NEW ENG WED EVENING AS VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACT ON ANOMALOUS PWATS OVER 2 INCHES WHICH IS +3SD
ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SHIFT S OF NEW ENG.
HOWEVER...WITH PERSISTENT +2SD PWAT AXIS AND GOOD NE INFLOW WITH LOW
LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES +2SD OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THU...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE NEW ENG WITH LESSER THREAT ACROSS NW
ZONES.

THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF SECOND BURST OF HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLY MOVING INTO NEW ENG BY LATE THU NIGHT BUT ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY FRIDAY ASSOCD WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME BACKING INTO NEW ENG AHEAD OF TS JOAQUIN...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP. IT IS INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE WEST
OF NEW ENG BY SAT THEN MOVE IT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENG
SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF JOAQUIN. A
CONTINUED WET PATTERN IS LIKELY RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS.

VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR STORM TOTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN PERSISTENT LONG DURATION WIND AND PWAT
ANOMALIES AND HIGH ENSEMBLE PROBS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. GEFS
ENSEMBLES INDICATING 60-80 PERCENT PROB OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES IN
48 HOUR PERIOD WHILE 51 MEMBER ECENS SHOWING 80 PERCENT PROB OF
TOTAL RAINFALL GREATER THAN 4 INCHES...AND 20-30 PERCENT PROB OF
GREATER THAN 8 INCHES.  THIS LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VERY HEAVY
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION OF HEAVIEST
RAIN. WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD 3-6 INCH STORM TOTALS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST STARTING WED EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN ANOMALOUS SFC HIGH WELL TO
THE N AND LOW PRES TO THE S.  POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 40 MPH ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...AND PARTICULARLY THE NORTH SHORE LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT WITH ANOTHER PULSE OF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
THE GUSTY NE WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
INCREASE THREAT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE THU AND FRI
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

MONDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS STRUGGLING WITH HOW QUICKLY THE
DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SUBSEQUENT DRYING.  GFS
DRIES IT OUT MON BUT GEFS MEAN KEEPS THREAT OF RAIN...AND ECMWF ALSO
WET FOR MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE IFR TO POSSIBLE LIFR. BEST LOCATIONS WOULD BE
ALONG SOUTH COAST.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AFTER EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS
OFF. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISO T-STORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS
BEGIN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR BY TUESDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER
PRECIP WILL MOVE TO WESTERN SITES CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND
TRANSVERSE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO
IFR/LIFR. CANNOT RULE ISO THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CLOSE TO 20-30
KTS...ESP ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THEN SWITCH TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CIGS MAY WORK INTO
THE REGION AFTER 08Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CIGS/VSBYS MAY WORK
INTO THE REGION AFTER 08Z.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH MOST OF
THIS PERIOD. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-35 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS E
COASTAL MA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE

GENERIC SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BE REISSUED AND EXTENDED INTO
WEDNESDAY. TODAY AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT...SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD OFF
A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. BY WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE SURFACE WINDS ALLOWING FOR GUSTS CLOSE TO 25-30
KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE WITH 7-8 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WHICH
WILL LIMIT VSBYS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT PERSISTENT NE WINDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GUSTS UP TO 35-40
KT ARE LIKELY STARTING WED NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT AND GALE
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...WHICH MAY REACH UP TO 15 FT. WINDS MAY
TEMPORARILY DIMINISH A BIT FRI BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SAT. EXPECT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...

TWO VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...AND
AGAIN TONIGHT.  WHILE VERY MINOR SPLASHOVER IS LIKELY AT THE MOST
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT.

WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY...

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF GUSTING TO 35-40 KTS WHILE REMAINING PERSISTENT...WAVES
ACROSS THE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD 8-12 FEET ON EXPOSED E
FACING BEACHES AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE N SHORE OF CAPE COD BAY AROUND
THE LOWER TO MID CAPE.

EXPECT A MODERATE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES WHICH ARE
THE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL CYCLES. POCKETS OF MODERATE FLOODING ALSO
POSSIBLE THU IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF BEACH EROSION DUE TO
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING PERIODS OF HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.

FOCUS IS ALONG THE EXPOSED NE FACING BEACHES OF MASSACHUSETTS
ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS PLUM ISLAND...REVERE...SCITUATE...
PLYMOUTH AND SANDWICH.

IMPACTS WITH RESPECT TO EROSION ARE DEPENDENT ON THE DIRECTION OF
THE ONSHORE WIND...WHETHER IT BE N-NE...NE OR E-NE. COASTAL
COMMUNITIES SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE LATEST FORECASTS OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE THREAT OF BEACH EROSION.

DATE / BOSTON HIGHEST TIDE / TIME

WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 30 / 12.2 FEET / 1:25 PM
THURSDAY OCTOBER 1     / 12.0 FEET / 2:17 PM
FRIDAY OCTOBER 2       / 11.5 FEET / 3:30 PM
SATURDAY OCTOBER 3     / 11.0 FEET / 4:06 PM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ002>012-014-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
555 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>006-008>013-017-018-020-021-026-RIZ001>008-292200-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
555 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 4-INCHES. THIS COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING IMPACTS. LOW CONFIDENCE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MAZ007-014>016-019-022>024-292200-
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-
NANTUCKET MA-
555 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...

PERSISTENT NE-WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THRU
FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE AREA OF
GREATEST CONCERN FOR THESE WIND GUSTS IS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THESE STRONGER GUSTS COULD
ALSO OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITHIN EAST COASTAL MA OR RHODE ISLAND.
CONSIDERING FULLY LEAFED TREES...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
WIND DAMAGE.

DUE TO THE POTENTIAL COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND BUILDING SEAS...THERE IS THE THREAT OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE ALONG WITH BEACH
EROSION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE LEADING TO FLOODING IMPACTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 4-INCHES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STAY TUNED ON THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER
11...WHICH HAS A GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO
A TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THIS
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-292200-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
555 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...

DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
NE GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. THE PERSISTENT AND
PROLONGED FETCH COULD RESULT IN WAVE ACTION OF 10-14 FEET
ESPECIALLY OVER OUTER COASTAL WATERS. GALE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS AND LATEST FORECASTS
FOR TD 11...WHICH HAS A GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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