Special Weather Statement, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
259 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

SURFACE MOISTURE GRADUALLY MIXING OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...HANGING ON IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A
LITTLE COOLER. STILL LOOKING LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF WEAK
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS STRUGGLING TO
GET ONTO THE PLAINS...SOME PULSE STORMS ON BOUNDARIES COMING
LATER. ONE AREA THAT COULD GET A BIT MORE IS THE CORNER DUE TO THE
HIGHER DEW POINTS. NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT
THERE...BUT WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAIN. THINK
THAT THE INSTABILITY IS NOT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN STRONG STORMS FOR
TOO LONG THOUGH.

DRYING CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO
CLEAR DUE TO SLOW MOTION...BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY
MORNING. LESS CONVECTION ON THURSDAY EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS.
CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER LOOKS GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO WITH THE RIDGE OVER EAST TX AND A
TROUGH OVER CA. THE RIDGE ITSELF WILL STRETCH WESTWARD WHICH WL
SHIFT THE SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE TO THE WEST AS WELL. THE
BEST CHC OF TSTMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY AND STABLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 90 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE AXIS
SHIFTING ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND DROP THE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10
DEGREES. BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME
MID LEVEL COOLING. THE SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WILL BUMP OF THE POPS UP
TO SCT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DRIER AND NORTHEASTERLY ON
MONDAY WITH MORE MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.
BEST CHC OF TSTMS MONDAY AFTN/EVNG WILL BE FROM AROUND THE SRN
FOOTHILLS/PALMER DIVIDE SOUTHWARD. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL SWITCH BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY. MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER THE STATE WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN/EVNG
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
STORMS WITH A CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KNOTS FOR A SHORT TIME
AND A LIKELY SHIFT TO WEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
410 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

COZ042-152300-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY CO-
410 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WELD COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM MDT...

AT 409 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PAWNEE BUTTES...OR 32 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KIMBALL...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PAWNEE BUTTES AND KEOTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
GULLY AND FIELD FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4080 10357 4066 10358 4068 10416 4100 10404
      4100 10357
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 280DEG 20KT 4082 10394

BAKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
417 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

COZ036-039-040-152300-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY
CO-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE  6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET CO-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE
COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY CO-
417 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BOULDER...
NORTHWESTERN ARAPAHOE...NORTHERN JEFFERSON...DENVER...BROOMFIELD AND
WESTERN ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

AT 416 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SUPERIOR TO
KITTREDGE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GREELEY TO 17 MILES WEST OF DENVER...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DENVER...WESTERN AURORA...LAKEWOOD...THORNTON...ARVADA...
WESTMINSTER...BROOMFIELD...COMMERCE CITY...NORTHEASTERN LITTLETON...
NORTHGLENN...BRIGHTON...ENGLEWOOD...WHEAT RIDGE...LAFAYETTE...
GOLDEN...LOUISVILLE...GREENWOOD VILLAGE...EVERGREEN...SUPERIOR AND
FEDERAL HEIGHTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 10496 4000 10470 3961 10489 3962 10534
      4001 10516 4001 10506 4000 10505 4000 10501
      4001 10499 4001 10496
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 269DEG 15KT 3994 10516 3966 10529

GJG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
456 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

COZ039>041-043-045-152345-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES CO-
CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY CO-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET CO-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY
CO-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE
COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY CO-
456 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WELD...NORTHEASTERN
DOUGLAS...WESTERN ARAPAHOE...EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON...DENVER AND
WESTERN ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

AT 454 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DACONO TO DENVER TO 4
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORRISON...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DENVER...AURORA...SOUTHEASTERN LAKEWOOD...THORNTON...NORTHEASTERN
WESTMINSTER...CENTENNIAL...NORTHEASTERN BROOMFIELD...NORTHERN
HIGHLANDS RANCH...COMMERCE CITY...PARKER...LITTLETON...NORTHGLENN...
BRIGHTON...ENGLEWOOD...ERIE...GREENWOOD VILLAGE...FEDERAL HEIGHTS...
LONE TREE...FIRESTONE AND DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND
MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3977 10444 3948 10476 3959 10515 3962 10516
      3975 10501 4013 10501 4014 10443
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 266DEG 20KT 4007 10495 3976 10495 3961 10512

GJG