Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

436 
WWUS55 KBOU 052259
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
459 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

COC073-121-052307-
/O.EXP.KBOU.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-150605T2300Z/
LINCOLN CO-WASHINGTON CO-
459 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM MDT...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  
HOWEVER...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH 
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO.

A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY  
UNTIL TIME 515 PM MDT. 
**!

LAT...LON 3957 10298 3957 10316 3937 10315 3929 10322
      3953 10359 4011 10327 3989 10281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 214DEG 15KT 3967 10319 

$$

DANKERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
422 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS HAS PUSHED OVER THE STATE TODAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH...ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STORMS THAT BEGAN LATE THIS
MORNING AND ARE CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON ARE BEING VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...WITH RAIN RATES OF AN INCH OR
MORE IN LESS THAN 20 MINUTES. THESE STORMS ARE LUCKILY MOVING AT A
QUICK PACE...AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SUCH
SATURATED SOILS FROM YESTERDAY AND FROM SEVERAL WEEKS BEFORE...IT
DOES NOT TAKE MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. HAVE KEPT THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR THE ORIGINAL AREA OVER THE PLAINS AND ADDED IN
THE REST OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GOOD SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES STILL...WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION FROM A SEVERE THREAT TO FLOODING THREAT LATER
TONIGHT. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT GOOD OUTFLOW
FROM STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TO PUSH BACK WEST THIS EVENING
TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE
URBAN CORRIDOR AFTER 6PM. IF THESE EASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS
CONTINUE...THIS COULD AGAIN SUSTAIN THE STORMS PAST MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE CORRIDOR...BUT FOR NOW AM LOOKING FOR
CLEARING WITH PATCHY FOG FORMING OVER THE PLAINS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN IN MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SLIGHTLY LOWER CAPE TOMORROW. WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER...SO SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH LESS
SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SLIGHTLY CLOSER...COOLER AIR STARTS SPREADING IN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY HELP PROLONG
CONVECTION...IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BUT WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE
IN AND PROVIDE A SOURCE OF CONVERGENCE. WE MAY TRANSITION FROM A
FAVORABLE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT INTO A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT THE FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS WEAK SO AMOUNTS MIGHT
BE LIGHT...BUT THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR WHATEVER
LIFT THERE IS SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. STILL LOOKING LIKE
MORE LIFT WITH BETTER MOISTURE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY...PROBABLY MORE
OF A HEAVY RAIN ENVIRONMENT BUT ENOUGH CAPE/SHEAR FOR A SEVERE
THREAT AS WELL. I DID RAISE POPS AND QPF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION DAY...STILL SOME MOISTURE AROUND
AND SOME SHEAR. PLANNING ON LESS ACTIVITY WITH A LOWER SEVERE/HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND
SHOULD BE DRIER. STILL SOME CONVECTION BUT LESS AND
SEVERE/FLOODING THREATS BACK MORE TOWARD NORMAL JUNE LEVELS. HINTS
OF A TREND BACK TOWARD WETTER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT SOME DISCREPANCIES ABOUT THE DETAILS. FOR NOW THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS GOOD...I BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE DUE TO THE SOIL
MOISTURE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OVER A LARGER AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL
STAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA AIRPORTS THROUGH 00Z...THEN A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE MORE OF THEM OVER THE NORTHERN URBAN CORRIDOR
AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH
LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS...AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORMS. KRIEDERMAN

OVERALL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT
ARE BEING MODIFIED GREATLY BY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING MORE OF A
DIURNAL SET UP TO OCCUR TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A DENVER
CYCLONE SETTING UP. LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EVENING
CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK UP TOWARD 06Z WITH LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...IF THE WEAK DENVER CYCLONE
DOES REDEVELOP THEN POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AFTER 09Z...WITH
POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 422 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ALONG THE CACHE LA POUDRE NEAR GREELEY AND THE
SOUTH PLATTE FROM HENDERSON DOWNSTREAM TO KERSEY AS WATER
CONTINUES DRAINING FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS OVER ALREADY SWOLLEN
RIVERS. A FEW ADVISORIES EXIST AS WELL OVER SOUTH BOULDER CREEK
NEAR ELDORADO SPRINGS AND THE CACHE LA POUDRE NEAR THE CANYON
MOUTH FOR THE SAME REASON. TODAYS STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD
PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS WITH REPORTS OF RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH
OR MORE LESS THAN 20 MINUTES OUT OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THESE
HAVE MOSTLY BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT EXPECTING TO SEE MORE PUSH NORTH ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRONT RANGE AS WELL TONIGHT.

HAVE CONTINUED AND EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ALL OF THE
PLAINS FOR THE EXPECTED STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH SUCH
SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE AREA...ANY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHTS
EXPECTED STORMS CAN CAUSE PROBLEMS QUICKLY.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL THE RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT
TO MODERATE...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. IT WILL BE DRIER WITH A MUCH LOWER THREAT LEVEL FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN IN
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ035-036-
038>051.

&&

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
HYDROLOGY...KRIEDERMAN/GIMMESTAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1101 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

COZ030>051-060515-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1101 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2015

...MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. STRONGER AND SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON.
AT THE SAME TIME...WIND SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND SATURATED SOILS...HEAVY RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR...AND
PALMER DIVIDE AREA EASTWARD THROUGH LIMON.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH WITH SNOWMELT AND
RAINFALL RUNOFF. PEOPLE LIVING ALONG STREAMS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRIER...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOW
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED BY 1 PM.

KRIEDERMAN/GIMMESTAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
130 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0109 PM     HAIL             1 E PARKER              39.51N 104.75W
06/05/2015  M0.88 INCH       DOUGLAS            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM     HAIL             1 S PARKER              39.50N 104.76W
06/05/2015  M1.50 INCH       DOUGLAS            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KFREDIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
226 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     HAIL             PONDEROSA PARK          39.40N 104.64W
06/05/2015  M1.00 INCH       ELBERT             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0109 PM     HAIL             1 E PARKER              39.51N 104.75W
06/05/2015  M0.88 INCH       DOUGLAS            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM     HAIL             1 S PARKER              39.50N 104.76W
06/05/2015  M1.50 INCH       DOUGLAS            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KFREDIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
327 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     HAIL             3 SW STRASBURG          39.70N 104.34W
06/05/2015  M1.00 INCH       ARAPAHOE           CO   STORM CHASER

0226 PM     HAIL             PONDEROSA PARK          39.40N 104.64W
06/05/2015  M1.00 INCH       ELBERT             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0109 PM     HAIL             1 E PARKER              39.51N 104.75W
06/05/2015  M0.88 INCH       DOUGLAS            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM     HAIL             1 S PARKER              39.50N 104.76W
06/05/2015  M1.50 INCH       DOUGLAS            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KFREDIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
409 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     HAIL             2 NNW THURMAN           39.62N 103.23W
06/05/2015  M0.88 INCH       WASHINGTON         CO   EMERGENCY MNGR

0324 PM     HAIL             3 SW STRASBURG          39.70N 104.34W
06/05/2015  M1.00 INCH       ARAPAHOE           CO   STORM CHASER

0226 PM     HAIL             PONDEROSA PARK          39.40N 104.64W
06/05/2015  M1.00 INCH       ELBERT             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0109 PM     HAIL             1 E PARKER              39.51N 104.75W
06/05/2015  M0.88 INCH       DOUGLAS            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM     HAIL             1 S PARKER              39.50N 104.76W
06/05/2015  M1.50 INCH       DOUGLAS            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KFREDIN