Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

325 
WWUS55 KBOU 282202
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
402 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

COC073-282215-
/O.CON.KBOU.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-150528T2215Z/
LINCOLN CO-
402 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 402 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BOYERO...OR 27
MILES SOUTH OF FLAGLER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOYERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 10348 3902 10317 3883 10317 3883 10348
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 325DEG 39KT 3893 10325 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

COOPER

217 
WWUS55 KBOU 282211
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
411 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

COC073-282220-
/O.EXP.KBOU.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-150528T2215Z/
LINCOLN CO-
411 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM MDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL
HAIL....GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3902 10348 3902 10317 3883 10317 3883 10348
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 327DEG 17KT 3893 10325 

$$

COOPER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
334 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

THERE IS PRETTY GOOD CONVECTION GOING OVER THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW.
HAIL OVER AN INCH HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH SOME OF THE CELLS. THERE
ARE BOUNDARIES ALL OVER THE PLACE. THE WATER VAPOR PICTURES ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER DECENT BATCH OF CONVECTION UPSTREAM IN EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO...AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AXIS. MODELS SHOW THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH ACROSS
THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY
WEAK TONIGHT AND WEAK NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE A TAD OF
WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
CWA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN ALL DOWNWARD FOR ALL THE
CWA FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
CONCERNING MOISTURE...THERE IS A LOT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S F THIS EVENING...THEN MOSTLY
THE 40S F OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME CAPE AROUND THIS
EVENING...MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. VALUES ARE OVER
1000 J/KG OVER THE FAR EASTERN BORDER AREAS. THERE IS CAPE FOR
ALL THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT NOTHING OVER 1000 J/KG. IT WILL LIKELY
NOT GET VERY WARM ON FRIDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.
THERE IS SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER ALL THE CWA MOST OF
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY TOO. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED THIS
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. WILL KEEP POPS GOING OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOW AFTER 06Z. BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY WILL GO WITH "LIKELY"S FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY'S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 3-7
C COOLER THAN TODAY'S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME DISAGREEMENT
ABOUT HOW FAST THE CLEARING/DRYING WILL COME. NAM CONTINUES TO BE
FASTER SUGGESTING LOTS OF CLEARING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS SLOWEST/WETTEST AND STILL HAS
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS FRIDAY EVENING. WILL STICK WITH
THE IDEA OF A COMPROMISE SHADED TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS...I
LEFT THE EVENING POPS AS THEY WERE BUT SPED UP THE DEPARTURE OF
THE WEATHER BY A FEW HOURS. THIS HAS ONLY MINIMAL POPS ON THE
SOUTHERN BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER
THAT IT WILL BE WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT AND SHOULD BE TOO STABLE
FOR MUCH AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH I DID LEAVE SOME LOW
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER FOR
SATURDAY WHICH FITS THE SLIGHTLY EARLIER TIMING AND MORE SUNSHINE.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A WARM DRY RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER. THERE
HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH LOOKS ALRIGHT
THOUGH I DID HOLD BACK A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE MOIST GROUND.
WE WILL BE NEAR 80 ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD BE THE FIRST 80 IN
MAY...THEN LOW TO MID 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK GOOD. MODELS
HAVE FLIPPED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TROUGH...BUT THE CONSENSUS
IS THE SAME. SOME MODELS SHOW A WEAK LEAD TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
ABOUT WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD BRING A LITTLE COOLING AND PERHAPS A
BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OTHERS LACK THIS AND WOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MAIN FEATURE IS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WHICH
WILL KEEP A WARM AND MAINLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER US.
CONSENSUS FORECAST IS FINE WHICH SHOWS A LITTLE COOLING AND SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS STARTING WEDNESDAY...BUT PROBABLY NOT A BIG
CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

DIA MAY NOT HAVE NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS BY LATE EVENING TONIGHT
...OR MAYBE JUST A WEAK VERSION OF THEM. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLIES
ARE PROGGED ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY NOT BE ANY CEILING ISSUES THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEY COULD GET DOWN TO BKN040 FROM LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SOME OF TODAYS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT
ANY FLOODING SHOULD BE LOCALIZED. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT AGAIN IT SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH A LOW
RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND LITTLE EFFECT ON THE LARGER
RIVERS. THE CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER IN GREELEY WILL REMAIN NEAR
FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEKEND...WHILE THE SOUTH PLATTE DOWNSTREAM WILL
BE SLOWLY FALLING.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SNOWMELT...LEADING TO HIGH FLOWS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS WATER WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM DURING THE NEXT
WEEK SO HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ON THE SOUTH PLATTE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...RJK
HYDROLOGY...GIMMESTAD/RJK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1122 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

COZ030>051-291730-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1122 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW OF THE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER FAST
MOVING HOWEVER A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IN 30 MINUTES. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE URBAN
CORRIDOR THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.

FOR TONIGHT THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END OVER THE PLAINS BY
EARLY EVENING HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING PRODUCING
UPSLOPE FLOW AND A CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE DAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10
THOUSAND FEET WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A TREND
TOWARD COOLER WEATHER WITH MORE STORMS LATER NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

RJK/GIMMESTAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
148 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

COZ042-048-282045-
LOGAN COUNTY CO-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY CO-
148 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WELD AND LOGAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

AT 147 PM MDT...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS REPORTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF PAWNEE PASS...OR 10 MILES WEST OF
STERLING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. EXTENSIVE HAIL WAS REPORTEDLY COVERING HIGHWAY 71.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STERLING...FLEMING...ILIFF...PEETZ...CROOK...ATWOOD...NORTH STERLING
RESERVOIR...PADRONI...PROCTOR...ST PETERSBURG...TWIN BUTTES...PAWNEE
PASS...WILLARD...LOGAN CORNERS AND STONEHAM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.

LAT...LON 4053 10267 4052 10383 4071 10378 4100 10316
      4100 10265
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 240DEG 49KT 4067 10342

COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
224 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

&&

KBOWEN