Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

237 
WWUS55 KBOU 112236
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
436 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015

COC005-035-112244-
/O.CAN.KBOU.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-150811T2300Z/
DOUGLAS CO-ARAPAHOE CO-
436 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL DOUGLAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN ARAPAHOE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.  THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  
HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.


LAT...LON 3950 10500 3965 10492 3964 10491 3962 10491
      3962 10489 3965 10488 3966 10485 3967 10487
      3967 10475 3950 10482
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 236DEG 6KT 3965 10486 3955 10490 

$$

COOPER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
220 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015

A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND A RIDGE OVER
TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE 1 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE. CAPES ARE 600-1200
J/KG...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK. EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. UNDER
THE STRONG STORMS...RAINFALL RATES WILL BE AROUND AN INCH IN 20
MINUTES. THIS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IF STORMS TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREA OR STALL OUT.

STORMS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. LOWS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE SHOULD BE LOW
CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD WEDNESDAY. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE.
WILL SEE MID LEVELS WARM A LITTLE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS WEST. THIS MAY
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO
FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIKE PREVIOUS
DAYS...THE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS THOUGH FEWER THAN TODAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 45 MINUTES OR LESS. SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE WARMER AIRMASS WILL LEAD
TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. DESPITE THE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO THE
FACT THAT PLENTY OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO
THE UPPER HIGH. THE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
MOST DAYS...WITH THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER HAVING THE LEAST CHANCE
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. PW'S AROUND AN
INCH OR MORE EACH DAY COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION WILL ALLOW THE
POSSIBLILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH 60S TO LOW
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 90S ON THE PLAINS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS MAY BE ON SUNDAY AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF DENVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND ACROSS THE DENVER AREA THOUGH 02Z. SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...SO IF THE AIRPORT TAKES A DIRECT
HIT CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR FOR 30 TO 45
MINUTES...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED AT APA YESTERDAY.

LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WELL EAST OF THE DENVER AIRPORT.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT. BEST TIME FOR STORMS WILL BE AFTER
21Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN 45 MINUTES OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...MEIER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1109 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015

COZ030>051-121715-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1109 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OVER THE PLAINS
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN 45
MINUTES OR LESS. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON ANY GIVEN DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
314 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015

COZ036-112200-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE  6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET CO-
314 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

AT 314 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CHEESMAN RESERVOIR...OR 36 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLORADO SPRINGS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTCREEK...DECKERS AND CHEESMAN RESERVOIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3917 10538 3918 10538 3922 10536 3924 10536
      3926 10538 3926 10537 3927 10534 3930 10534
      3934 10518 3913 10505 3913 10537
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 228DEG 6KT 3918 10533

COOPER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
339 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015

COZ040-041-112230-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET CO-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE
COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY CO-
339 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS...WESTERN
ARAPAHOE...EASTERN DENVER AND WESTERN ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
MDT...

AT 333 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE WHERE SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG
STORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR.  THE LINE EXTENDING FROM
5 MILES NORTH OF D.I.A.TERMINAL AND CONCOURSES TO HIGHLANDS RANCH. THE LINE WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...NICKEL
SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DENVER...AURORA...CENTENNIAL...HIGHLANDS RANCH...NORTHERN CASTLE
ROCK...NORTHEASTERN COMMERCE CITY...PARKER...EASTERN LITTLETON...
SOUTHEASTERN ENGLEWOOD...GREENWOOD VILLAGE...LONE TREE...DENVER
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...ARAPAHOE PARK...D.I.A. TERMINAL AND
CONCOURSES...SURREY RIDGE...BEVERLY HILLS...WATKINS...BUCKLEY AFB AND
LOUVIERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH THESE DEVELOPING STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3953 10506 3998 10474 3999 10451 3989 10450
      3938 10483
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 131DEG 6KT 3994 10464 3955 10495

COOPER