Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

119 
WGUS75 KBOU 212301
FFSBOU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
501 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015

COC035-212311-
/O.CAN.KBOU.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-150722T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DOUGLAS CO-
501 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3914 10486 3914 10500 3922 10502 3929 10485
      3923 10478

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
320 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH
BRIEF LARGE HAIL LIKELY OCCURRED WITH A COUPLE OF STORMS.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR.
FORTUNATELY...MOST STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ALONG AT 10 TO 20 MPH.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOODING THREAT LOW. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORT WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECTED STORMS TO RAPIDLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES AND DRIES.

AIRMASS WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL FALL TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. CAPES WILL BE LESS THAN 500
J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH WARMING ALONG SHOULD KEEP STORMS ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015

THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB WILL
BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE...AS WARM AS +20C ACCORDING TO THE
GFS. THIS MID-LEVEL CAP SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ALSO SHOW DRYING
AT LOW AND MID-LEVELS...NOT JUST THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY BUT ALSO
THE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY. PLAINS LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S. OVER THE WEKEND...A NEW SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH WHILE TEMPERATURES
ALSO COOL A FEW DEGREES. PERIODS OF SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILES FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FROM SATURDAY ONWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE PREVAILING UPPER PATTERN IS
GOING TO BE A NEARLY PERMANENT UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS.
FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015

BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL BE BEFORE 00Z.
AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR STORMS
TO END AROUND 03Z...IF NOT SLIGHTLY SOONER. ONCE CONVECTION ENDS
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 6000 FEET. AIRMASS WILL DRY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...MEIER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1046 AM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015

COZ030>051-221700-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1046 AM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. MOST PLACES WILL SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN A HOUR OR TWO WHICH COULD PRODUCE
FLOODING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO BEGINS WARMING UP FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER
AND MID 90S. SOME LOCATIONS ON THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS MAY SEE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE REST OF NORTHEAST COLORADO SHOULD BE
DRY. OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1203 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015

COZ035-036-039-211830-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY
CO-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE  6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET CO-
LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET CO-
1203 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1201 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM
STRENGTHENING NEAR ROLLINSVILLE IN THE HIGH FOOTHILLS...OR 31 MILES
WEST OF DENVER...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN ARVADA...WESTERN BOULDER...NEDERLAND...PINECLIFFE...
ROLLINSVILLE...ELDORADO SPRINGS AND ELDORA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4008 10525 3987 10523 3985 10542 3989 10538
      3991 10542 3988 10545 3988 10547 3985 10544
      3984 10547 3987 10547 3989 10549 3989 10551
      3991 10553 3991 10557 3992 10552 3994 10554
      3994 10555 3995 10555
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 263DEG 6KT 3988 10551

BAKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
131 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015

COZ036-040-041-212015-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET CO-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE  6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET CO-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE
COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY CO-
131 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 127 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING TWO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...ONE NEAR SOUTH PLATTE...OR 27 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DENVER...THE OTHER NEAR HIGHLANDS RANCH...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF
DENVER. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN DENVER...CENTENNIAL...HIGHLANDS RANCH...PARKER...
LITTLETON...GREENWOOD VILLAGE...LONE TREE...ROXBOROUGH PARK...SOUTH
PLATTE...BUFFALO CREEK...SEDALIA...SPRUCEWOOD...LOUVIERS...SURREY
RIDGE...BEVERLY HILLS AND THE PINERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO MINOE
LOWLAND AND STREET FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3930 10525 3940 10532 3953 10511 3952 10512
      3952 10511 3948 10512 3949 10510 3951 10508
      3954 10508 3956 10505 3957 10506 3967 10491
      3948 10472
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 231DEG 12KT 3938 10521

BAKER