Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Boise, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
906 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN MALHEUR
COUNTY INTO OWYHEE COUNTY AS WELL AS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
THIS EVENING. AT 03Z...RADAR IS SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR PARMA...NYSSA AND NEW PLYMOUTH MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MIDDLETON...EMMETT AND CALDWELL. LATEST HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE BOISE METRO
AREA...MAINLY STAR AND EAGLE...IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. EXPECT BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE
LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER LEWISTON. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
CURRENT FORECAST AS THIS COVERED WELL SO NO UPDATE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AFTER 18Z MAY 28. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE
FROM KBKE TO KREO THROUGH 06Z AND POSSIBLY ACROSS IDAHO MTNS
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z MAY 28.
SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE UP TO 12 KTS EXCEPT STRONGER IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER ERN WASHINGTON AS OF 18Z. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE
AND PASS OVER CENTRAL IDAHO OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AND
DEPARTING TO THE NE INTO MONTANA BY LATE THU. CONVECTION HAS AGAIN
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE
AND CONCENTRATED IN OWYHEE COUNTY. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER
OVERNIGHT...MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL AND WE EXPECT A BETTER-
THAN-NORMAL CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE AGAIN FORECAST FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER ALL BUT
WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY. THERE WILL BE A MIN IN CONVECTION LATE WED
NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING THU. BY THU AFTERNOON...THE MAIN
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES BACK TO THE IDAHO SIDE AND NRN
BAKER COUNTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE CLOSED LOW
MOVES TO OUR EAST...PRECIP CHANCES RAPIDLY DROP OFF AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS MAY REMAIN IN THE AFTERNOONS...BUT OTHERWISE A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
DECREASE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JS
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/DD