Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Boise, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
231 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING EAST ACROSS NRN NV IS HELPING CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION. AS OF 220 PM MDT...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREAS WERE IN WRN
BAKER COUNTY...OWYHEE COUNTY...AND ERN VALLEY COUNTY. SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE OWYHEES WILL LIKELY HEAD INTO THE TREASURE
VALLEY...INCLUDING THE BOISE METRO AREA...AFTER 330 PM. WE EXPECT
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING AS
THEY MOVE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA...THE SAME BASIC
ENTITY THAT HAS BEEN THERE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND PASS OVER THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW.
CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE RESTRICTED TO
OUR FAR ERN SECTIONS. AFTER TOMORROW EVENING...WE WILL BE DRY THE
REMAINDER OF WED NIGHT AND ON THU AS DRIER ZONAL FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
WEST LATE THU AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE PAC NW.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND
NEAR NORMAL AT NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE NW WINDS WED AND THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN LATELY DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND THE ZONAL FLOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW
POISED IN CENTRAL CANADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WITH A
LOBE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND MOVING OVER OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THAT
ENERGY FORMS INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO...AND THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE MOIST THAN THE
ECMWF. SO...FOR NOW...POPS ARE LOW DESPITE A CONFIDENT COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLER...MAYBE 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY AND
BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY IN HOW TO HANDLE THE
CUT-OFF LOW...THE NEXT UPPER LOW OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST...AND THE PATH OF HURRICANE DOLORES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 KTS...AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FT MSL...VARIABLE UP TO 15 KTS...THEN AFTER 15/18Z...WEST
10-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....EP/DD
AVIATION.....EP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

IDZ015-142130-
SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS ID-
251 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR  UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

AT 251 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
OWYHEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SUGARLOAF MOUNTAIN...BUCKHORN RESERVOIR AND OTTER RESERVOIR AROUND
330 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE RELAY STORM REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN BOISE IDAHO VIA LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...OR NWS
BOISE FACEBOOK AND TWITTER ACCOUNTS.

&&

LAT...LON 4202 11614 4221 11598 4200 11570 4199 11603
      4200 11615
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 225DEG 10KT 4195 11603

KA