Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
321 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY WATCHING PROGRESS OF ENHANCED BOWING LINE OF CONVECTION
ESEWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS. ON ITS CURRENT PACE (AND ASSUMING IT
HOLDS TOGETHER)...IT SHOULD REACH NORTHWEST ALABAMA ROUGHLY
01Z...AND I-59 ROUGHLY 03Z-04Z. WOULD EXPECT SOME WINDS AND A LOT
OF LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF STORMS IF/WHEN IT GETS
HERE. GIVEN THE FACT ITS GOT A HEAD OF STEAM GOING ALREADY...AND
PLENTY OF UNSTABLE AIR OUT AHEAD OF IT...I'VE GOT A FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITSELF UNTIL WELL AFTER
DARK. OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY (AS OF 20Z) IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA WERE MORE AFTERNOON HEATING/DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LESS
ORGANIZED.

THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ARKANSAS CONVECTION IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS GETTING EAST
OF ALABAMA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THAT SHOULD
HELP TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR A BIT...OR AT LEAST LET THEM GET
BACK DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
BASED ON HIGH TEMP FORECASTS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF HEAT ISSUES IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A LINE OF BROKEN STORMS IS MOVING NORTHWARD...AND WILL BE AFFECTING
TOI AND MGM BETWEEN 18-20Z. THIS LINE MIGHT GRADUALLY WEAKEN BUT
WILL LEAVE ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES FOR SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND EXPECT
COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AT MGM AND TOI...AFTERNOON STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH LIGHT FOG AND MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT GIVEN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

ACROSS THE NORTH...THERE COULD BE A LULL BETWEEN AFTERNOON SCT
CONVECTION AND MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY AS A RESULT OF A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE AREA...HAVE TRANSITIONED FROM VCTS TO TSRA DURING THE EARLY
EVENING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED STORMS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT...WITH MORE
RAIN LIKELY ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES GO BACK DOWN TO MORE TYPICAL
LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND...AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR 100
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  86  72  90  71 /  40  60  60  40  30
ANNISTON    73  87  71  89  72 /  30  60  60  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  89  74  92  74 /  40  60  60  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  92  75  95  74 /  30  60  40  30  20
CALERA      73  89  72  92  72 /  30  60  50  30  20
AUBURN      73  89  73  91  74 /  20  50  50  40  30
MONTGOMERY  75  92  76  95  76 /  20  50  40  40  30
TROY        74  92  74  94  75 /  20  50  40  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
402 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

ALZ011>015-017>050-061215-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
402 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO HEAT INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE
105 DEGREES FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH AND WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
546 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

ALZ025-052315-
SHELBY AL-
546 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTY UNTIL 615
PM CDT...

AT 546 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CHELSEA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHELSEA...WESTOVER...MOUNT LAUREL AND HIGHLAND LAKES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3321 8664 3329 8672 3344 8661 3330 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 228DEG 12KT 3330 8660

87/GRANTHAM