Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DECENTLY ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS HEADED SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.  HAVE BEEN LOOKING CLOSELY AT
SOME MESOSCALE NUMBERS TO TRY TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
UNCERTAINTY THAT NORTHWEST FLOW OFTEN BRINGS.  BEST INSTABILITY IS
COINCIDED WITH THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...WHICH LOOKS
GOOD AT THIS POINT.  IT WILL BE A WAIT AND SEE IF IT CAN MAINTAIN
SIMILAR INTENSITY AS THE SUN GETS LOWER...BUT 4500 JOULES WILL TAKE
A WHILE TO SUBSIDE EVEN AS EVENING COOLING BEGINS.  THE HIGHER BULK
SHEAR VALUES...WHICH HELPED ORGANIZE THIS LINE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...AND ARE OFTEN TIMES CONFUSING.  IN THIS
INSTANCE...ONCE A COLD POOL DOMINATED LINE GETS GOING THE MECHANICS
CAN OFTEN TIMES SUSTAIN MORE ROBUST FEATURES.  IN OTHER WORDS...THE
HIGHER BULK SHEAR IS NOT NECESSARY TO KEEP THE LINE GOING ONCE IT IS
ALREADY ESTABLISHED.  ADD TO THAT THE SOUTHWARD-TURNING SECTION OF
THE LINE ENTERING NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TRYING TO ORGANIZE INTO AN
MCV...AND THERE IS PLENTY TO SUGGEST THAT AREAS NORTH OF I-20 WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY.  MOST MESOSCALE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
IS KILLING THE LINE HERE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER...ALL HAVE
INITIALIZED THE INSTABILITY INCORRECTLY. SO BE A BIT CAREFUL WITH
ANY SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS IT IS LIKELY UNDERDONE.  THE BIG
BUBBLE OF 4000 JOULES IS LAYING IN WAIT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN-
THIRD OF THE STATE...AND WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR US AT LEAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND REDUCED
VIS. HOWEVER...EXPECT GUSTS WITHIN STRONGER STORMS TO APPROACH
50KTS...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE LINE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 KTS. WINDS
WEDNESDAY WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTH AT 10-12KTS.
AT MGM AND TOI...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY LEFT FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.

14

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
721 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

ALZ011>015-017>050-160330-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
721 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER 105 DEGREES FOR A LARGE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON. TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
ARE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH A LESSER THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
914 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JEMISON                 32.96N 86.75W
07/14/2015                   CHILTON            AL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN CHILTON COUNTY

&&

DAVIS

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