Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
341 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...ALBEIT A TAD WEAKER THAN
YESTERDAY AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING IS ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM
THE EAST. SO AS HEATING PROGRESSES...CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BUT
LATER SO SLOWER TO PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. HAVE A
CENTRALLY LOCATED SCATTERED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND FOR
TONIGHT IN GRIDS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BAND OF CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT PROGRESSING NORTHWARD BY SUNSET BUT STARTING TO SLOWLY
DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

MODELS ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE YUCATAN AND PROGRESSING NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
TEXAS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK (WITH MINOR TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES) DUE TO THE EXPECTED BUILDING OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS THIS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS...IT WILL ALSO DECREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION...THAT WILL MEAN LESS CLOUDS...
MORE SUNSHINE...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS TAKE WHATS
LEFT OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS AND DRIFT IT NORTHWARD INTO
OKLAHOMA AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FINALLY
GETTING ABSORBED INTO A SURFACE FRONT. THE UPPER FEATURE WRAPS
AROUND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW
QUICKLY IT WILL WEAKEN AND GET ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW AND HOW
MUCH WEAKENING AND RETREATING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR. ALTHOUGH
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
WAVE RIDING ACROSS...THEY REMAIN LOW OVERALL WITH UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO STRENGTH AND TIMING. MINOR FLUCTUATIONS DOWNWARD FOR HIGHS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH DUE TO THE POTENTIALLY EXTRA CLOUD
COVER AND SLIGHTLY BETTER INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL LINGER THRU THE EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH VCTS FOR NOW
BUT WILL UPDATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IF TS IMPACTS APPEAR MORE
LIKELY AT ANY TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT LESS
THAN 10 KTS. THE RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT IS MORE
QUESTIONABLE CONSIDERING THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FARTHER
WEST INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...TCL WOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR SUNRISE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  91  71  93  72 /  20  20  10  20  10
ANNISTON    71  91  72  92  72 /  30  20  10  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  73  91  74  92  74 /  30  20  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  73  92  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  20  10
CALERA      72  91  73  92  73 /  30  20  10  20  10
AUBURN      72  91  73  93  74 /  30  20  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  73  93  73  94  74 /  20  20  10  20  10
TROY        71  93  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

08/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
612 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

ALZ011>015-017>050-141415-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
612 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
349 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

ALZ030-039-132130-
MARENGO AL-SUMTER AL-
349 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARENGO AND
SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 349 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PENNINGTON...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF BUTLER...MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DEMOPOLIS...JEFFERSON...MYRTLEWOOD...COATOPA...PIN HOOK...DUG HILL...
LILITA...U.S. 80 AND AL 28...DEMOPOLIS LOCK AND DAM...DEMOPOLIS
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...HALF ACRE...MCDOWELL...BELLAMY AND WHITFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3253 8815 3255 8787 3253 8786 3255 8784
      3254 8782 3217 8791 3217 8801 3226 8801
      3228 8802 3228 8801 3230 8800 3230 8794
      3228 8794 3229 8793 3231 8793 3231 8816
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 187DEG 33KT 3217 8805

19