Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Birmingham, AL

149 
WWUS54 KBMX 032210
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
410 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

ALC107-032245-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150103T2245Z/
PICKENS AL-
410 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
PICKENS COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM CST...

AT 408 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CARROLLTON...MOVING NORTH AT 50
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CARROLLTON...REFORM...OWENS...MCSHAN...NORTH PICKENS AIRPORT AND
  SHAW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3316 8796 3319 8820 3353 8812 3352 8784
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 193DEG 43KT 3323 8806

$$

GRANTHAM

823 
WWUS54 KBMX 032221
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
421 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

ALC107-032245-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150103T2245Z/
PICKENS AL-
421 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
PICKENS COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM CST...

AT 422 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR REFORM...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN PICKENS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3332 8793 3333 8808 3353 8806 3352 8784
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 193DEG 43KT 3339 8800

$$

GRANTHAM

488 
WWUS54 KBMX 032228
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
428 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

ALC107-032238-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150103T2245Z/
PICKENS AL-
428 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3332 8793 3333 8808 3353 8806 3352 8784
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 193DEG 43KT 3346 8798

$$

GRANTHAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
229 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THERE'S SEVERAL WEATHER IMPACTS TO DISCUSS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS SO LET'S GET RIGHT TO IT. THE FIRST OF THESE IMPACTS IS
LITERALLY RIGHT ON OUR DOORSTEP. AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST
INTO ILLINOIS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES
SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO CENTRAL LA. THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS AL WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY IN
THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. A LINE OF STORMS IS
ALREADY TAKING SHAPE JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS SOUTH MS
JUST TO EAST OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MESOLOW. THE SQUALL LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MS THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
SET TO ENTER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER 4PM...WITH SOME OF THE
INDIVIDUAL STORMS POSSIBLY ENTERING A BIT SOONER.

AS FOR THE IMPACTS EXPECTED HERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THEY HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH. SPC STILL HAS THE WESTERN HALF
OF AL OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND EVEN WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER INSTABILITIES
SHOULD BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AT LEAST IN THE SW PORTION OF
THE CWA. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS
WESTERN AL LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...MAINLY DUE TO WANING
INSTABILITIES AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL FORCING. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN REMAINS 4PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BEYOND MIDNIGHT EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN WITH
A LINE IF SHOWERS AND SUB-SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS EASTERN AL THRU SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. GROUND CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED AFTER THE
HEAVY RAINS OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS...AND SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST
FROM NOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS TO
ANNISTON. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE...MOST NOTABLY
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE TOMBIGBEE AND BLACK WARRIOR RIVERS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WE'LL SEE A MUCH NEEDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST
THRU NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DRY...IT WON'T BE WITHOUT
IMPACT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC AIR MASS. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPS
WE'VE SEEN THIS WINTER SEASON. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH A HARD FREEZE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. NORTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10
MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...OR PERHAPS EVEN
BELOW ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON THU WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTH.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART FOR
TERMINALS IN THE SHORT TERM FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. AS TS
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAVE
OUT MENTION UNTIL THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY
TS DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE LAGGING TILL LATER THIS EVENING AS
A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IFR
CIGS MAY GO UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON TO MVFR BUT WILL LIKELY GO DOWN
AS LINE OF TSRA APPROACHES AND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH RA BEHIND THE
LINE INTO SUNDAY DAYTIME.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  58  30  45  26 / 100  50   0   0   0
ANNISTON    60  61  32  47  27 / 100  70   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  56  57  30  45  29 / 100  40   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  55  56  31  47  28 / 100  20   0   0   0
CALERA      57  58  32  47  30 / 100  50   0   0   0
AUBURN      62  63  34  50  32 /  90  80  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  63  64  36  51  30 / 100  80   0   0   0
TROY        64  65  36  52  31 /  90  80  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BIBB...BLOUNT...CALHOUN...
CHEROKEE...CLEBURNE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
JEFFERSON...LAMAR...MARION...PICKENS...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1223 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

ALZ011>015-017>050-041830-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1223 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS WEST ALABAMA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM 4 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS...TO CALERA...TO HEFLIN.

DUE TO EXPECTED RAINFALL...POINTS ALONG THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS. IN ADDITION TO THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES...BRISK NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING COULD PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR ZERO
DEGREES ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

THE COLD AND DRY AIR MAY RESULT IN HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THURSDAY
ACROSS THE AREA.

DUE TO EXPECTED RAINFALL...POINTS ALONG THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AND
BLACK WARRIOR RIVER ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OR REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

08/MK