Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1205 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

ABUNDANT SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH
UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED
THIS MORNING FROM OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS. WHILE THE NORTHERN
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST
TODAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME
OCCLUDED AS THE UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND SWINGS INTO TEXAS TODAY. THIS EVENING...THE UPPER
SYSTEM WILL SWING TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST TOWARD OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS. AS IT DOES SO...THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GET PULLED ALONG WITH IT. AS THE LOW PULLS
NORTHWARD...IT WILL DRAG A SURFACE FRONT TO THE EAST ACROSS
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI TOWARD ALABAMA.

SO FOR TODAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY WILL BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION. AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TONIGHT...WE WILL SEE
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN RESPONSE. THE BETTER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL DAYTIME WHEN THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER.

08

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

AT 12Z MONDAY...A BAND OF STORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF
ALABAMA AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION.
SYSTEMS WITH SUCH HIGH AMPLITUDE USUALLY FAIL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER THIS FAR EAST DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK
LAPSE RATES. SOUTHERLY 850-500 MB FLOW WILL IN FACT CONTRIBUTE TO
LESS THAN IDEAL LAPSE RATES FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT UNUSUALLY RICH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE DUE TO SEVERAL DAYS OF PERSISTENT FLOW
FROM THE TROPICS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SURFACE CAPE OF 300-600 J/KG
IN A NARROW AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOW-TOPPED WITH ESPECIALLY WEAK
LAPSE RATES ABOVE 500 MB. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE RISK...BUT STRONG WIND FIELDS AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS WILL
SUPPORT A LOW-END THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES
WITH ANY MESOVORTICES OR EMBEDDED HP SUPERCELLS.

MODELS DISAGREE ON THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT BECOMES DISPLACED ON TUESDAY...AND RAIN
CHANCES COULD HANG AROUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. FOR THURSDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...A LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...ALLOWING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS ARE ON THE RISE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MVFR EXPECTED TO
BECOME VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE CIGS SHOULD LOWER BACK TO MVFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MVFR..AND
POTENTIALLY IFR...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT THE LINE OF
HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ISN'T EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE TCL AREA FROM THE WEST UNTIL AROUND 15Z. THEREFORE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY TS MENTION AT THIS TIME.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MOIST AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     75  65  72  51  63 /  20  60 100  50  20
ANNISTON    75  65  72  54  65 /  20  60 100  50  20
BIRMINGHAM  76  67  72  49  63 /  20  60 100  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  76  68  72  47  63 /  20  60 100  20  10
CALERA      75  66  72  50  63 /  20  60 100  30  20
AUBURN      74  65  73  58  65 /  20  40 100  60  30
MONTGOMERY  79  66  76  55  67 /  20  40 100  40  20
TROY        79  66  75  58  68 /  10  30 100  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
625 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

ALZ011>015-017>050-281530-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
625 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR FORECAST TO OCCUR FOR SEVERAL
POINTS ON ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA RIVER BASINS. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS
SEE THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A LIMITED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON MONDAY ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...BUT
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE...SOME
RIVER FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. WITH SATURATED SOILS AND ELEVATED
RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS ADDITIONAL...RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED ON MONDAY.

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
937 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     TORNADO          4 S COALING             33.11N 87.35W
12/25/2015  F0               TUSCALOOSA         AL   NWS STORM SURVEY

            WEAK TORNADO WITH MAX WINDS OF 75 MPH TOUCHED DOWN ALONG
            CLEMENTS RD AND MOVED NORTHEAST CROSSING HAGLER COALING
            RD...WIRE RD AND DUDLEY RD BEFORE LIFTING JUST NE OF
            DUDLEY RD. ONLY MINOR TREE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED WITH
            APPROXIMATELY A DOZEN TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED AS
            VIEWED FROM VANTAGE POINTS ALONG THE PATH. THE DAMAGE
            PATH WAS 5 MILES LONG AND 185 YARDS WIDE AT ITS WIDEST
            POINT. FINALIZED START POINT.

0342 PM     TORNADO          2 SW MERCEDE            33.16N 87.29W
12/25/2015  F0               TUSCALOOSA         AL   NWS STORM SURVEY

            THE FIRST TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN SOUTH OF COALING. THE
            TORNADO WAS WEAK AND RATED AN EF-0 WITH HIGHLY SPOTTY
            DAMAGE CONSISTING OF SNAPPED TREES. FINIALIZED ENDING
            POINT.

0455 PM     TORNADO          5 NNE BESSEMER          33.44N 86.91W
12/25/2015  F2               JEFFERSON          AL   NWS STORM SURVEY

            *** 2 INJ *** TORNADO INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN 1.7 MILES
            SSW OF MIDFIELD. INITIAL DAMAGE WAS FOUND NEAR DOWNEY
            STREET AND 51ST STREET, WHERE TREES WERE TOPPLED AND
            SNAPPED. THIS DAMAGE WAS RATED EF-1. THE TORNADO TRACKED
            NORTHEAST WHERE EF-2 DAMAGE OCCURED ALONG JEFFERSON
            AVENUE SW AND PARK AVE SW. FINIALIZED START POINT.

0459 PM     TORNADO          2 SSE FAIRFIELD         33.45N 86.90W
12/25/2015  F2               JEFFERSON          AL   NWS STORM SURVEY

            A RAPID DECLINE IN DAMAGE INTENSITY WAS OBSERVED AS THE
            TORNADO MOVED NORTHEAST, WITH EF-1 AND EF-0 DAMAGE
            CONSISTING OF ROOF DAMAGE, AS WELL AS SNAPPED AND
            UPROOTED TREES STRETCHING FROM GRASSELLI BLVD TO CARVER
            AVE SW AND 45TH STREET SW BEFORE LIFTING. THERE WERE A
            TOTAL OF ABOUT 50 HOMES IMPACTED OR DAMAGED WITH
            APPROXIMATELY 15 THAT WERE UNINHABITABLE. FINALIZED END
            POINT.

&&

08

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