Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
555 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL STORMS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING ROTATING MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE LINE IN AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM BULK
SHEAR VALES OVER 35 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300
M2/S2. THESE SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MOISTURE HAS GREATLY INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE. THESE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES HAVE PRODUCED SBCAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 250-750 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE QUESTION NOW IS HOW FAR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL
THIS AREA OF SEVERE STORMS MOVE. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 03-06Z. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL VEER TO MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. THERE IS ALSO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STRETCHING
FROM NEAR PELL CITY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR SELMA. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD ALSO WORK OVER SOME OF THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
CAUSING THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST.
REGARDLESS...0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH REMAIN ELEVATED OFF
THE LATEST RUN OF THE RUC AND EXPECT AT LEAST AN EXTENSION OF THE
WATCH EAST A ROW OF COUNTIES OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT TCL AT 00Z...THEN THE OTHER TERMINALS WITH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. BROUGHT A MIX OF IFR CEILINGS....GUSTY
WINDS...THUNDER MENTION AND WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS UNTIL 02-04Z. SOUTHERN SITES I DID NOT MENTION
THE WIND SHEAR AS THE STRONGER WINDS LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL START WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT AND SLOWLY SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND THEN WEST AS
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES BY.

CEILINGS GO UP AND DOWN AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE RISING INTO MVFR UNDER WESTERLY WINDS.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS ADDED DUE TO THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION
INITIALLY BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 020. THIS DIRECTIONAL CHANGE
DECREASES WITH TIME BUT THE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE THE WINDS DECREASE AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 229 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015/

THERE'S SEVERAL WEATHER IMPACTS TO DISCUSS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS SO LET'S GET RIGHT TO IT. THE FIRST OF THESE IMPACTS IS
LITERALLY RIGHT ON OUR DOORSTEP. AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST
INTO ILLINOIS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES
SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO CENTRAL LA. THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS AL WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY IN
THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. A LINE OF STORMS IS
ALREADY TAKING SHAPE JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS SOUTH MS
JUST TO EAST OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MESOLOW. THE SQUALL LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MS THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
SET TO ENTER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER 4PM...WITH SOME OF THE
INDIVIDUAL STORMS POSSIBLY ENTERING A BIT SOONER.

AS FOR THE IMPACTS EXPECTED HERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THEY HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH. SPC STILL HAS THE WESTERN HALF
OF AL OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND EVEN WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER INSTABILITIES
SHOULD BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AT LEAST IN THE SW PORTION OF
THE CWA. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS
WESTERN AL LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...MAINLY DUE TO WANING
INSTABILITIES AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL FORCING. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN REMAINS 4PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BEYOND MIDNIGHT EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN WITH
A LINE IF SHOWERS AND SUB-SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS EASTERN AL THRU SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. GROUND CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED AFTER THE
HEAVY RAINS OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS...AND SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST
FROM NOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS TO
ANNISTON. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE...MOST NOTABLY
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE TOMBIGBEE AND BLACK WARRIOR RIVERS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WE'LL SEE A MUCH NEEDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST
THRU NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DRY...IT WON'T BE WITHOUT
IMPACT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC AIR MASS. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPS
WE'VE SEEN THIS WINTER SEASON. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH A HARD FREEZE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. NORTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10
MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...OR PERHAPS EVEN
BELOW ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON THU WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTH.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  58  30  45  26 / 100  50   0   0   0
ANNISTON    60  61  32  47  27 / 100  70   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  56  57  30  45  29 / 100  40   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  55  56  31  47  28 / 100  20   0   0   0
CALERA      57  58  32  47  30 / 100  50   0   0   0
AUBURN      62  63  34  50  32 /  90  80  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  63  64  36  51  30 / 100  80   0   0   0
TROY        64  65  36  52  31 /  90  80  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BIBB...BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CLEBURNE...
ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...MARION...
PICKENS...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TUSCALOOSA...
WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
907 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE CUBA              32.43N 88.37W
01/03/2015                   SUMTER             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO AN OUTBUILDING AND TREES DOWN ON PRETTY BRANCH
            ROAD IN CUBA.

&&

GRANTHAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
918 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

ALZ043-040400-
ELMORE AL-
918 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELMORE COUNTY UNTIL 1000 PM
CST...

AT 916 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLUE RIDGE...OR NEAR WETUMPKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WETUMPKA...
  DEXTER...
  SANTUCK...
  ECLECTIC...
  KENT...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3245 8619 3247 8623 3250 8625 3247 8629
      3249 8631 3247 8631 3252 8637 3276 8609
      3277 8596 3275 8588 3270 8591 3265 8589
      3262 8590 3244 8615 3244 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 0318Z 233DEG 33KT 3251 8621

05/MA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
920 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW BRINN              34.20N 87.85W
01/03/2015                   MARION             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BARN DAMAGED ON COUNTY HIGHWAY 108 OFF HIGHWAY 253
            BETWEEN HAMILTON AND HACKLEBURG. POSSIBLE TORNADO

&&

GRANTHAM

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