Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 11, 2015McHenry County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this special weather statement at Jul 11, 2015, 6:59 PM CDT for McHenry County, North Dakota. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 11, 2015, 6:59 PM CDT (23:59 UTC)
Expired: Jul 11, 2015, 7:45 PM CDT
In force: 46 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND

County McHenry County, ND

The radar

The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 12.0 hours before the alert went out and 121 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 841 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -278 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1498 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 85 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 129 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 11, 5:53 PM CDT, 1 hour 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 11, 5:53 PM CDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
553 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND ALL OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS DISCUSSED
BELOW...ROBUST INSTABILITY WITH 4-5K J/KG OF MUCAPE. LITTLE SHEAR
BUT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH
TROUGH STRETCHING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S...WHILE AHEAD
MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN AROUND 70. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
BROAD TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WHILE BROAD RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS WITH A VARIETY OF COMPACT SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...STRONG
INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH PER
LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS AND KBIS 18Z SOUNDING...THOUGH SHEAR REMAINS
MARGINAL. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL...POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST...NORTH DAKOTA. GIVEN THE GREAT INSTABILITY HAVE OPTED
TO MENTION SEVERE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
STRONGER STORMS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RE-
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BACK TO THE WEST AS A VARIETY OF UPPER WAVES
PASS THROUGH.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
AND COMPACT LOW OPENS UP AND PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE SYSTEM
PASSING NORTH. STRONGEST INSTABILITY SETS UP OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN US WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO
RECEIVE MANY UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES.

WARM...MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING VERY HIGH CAPE
VALUES...MAINLY ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK...BUT LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. WITH VERY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SHOULD BE NORTH AND EAST. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER WITHOUT ANY DISCERNIBLE WAVE OR
ADDITIONAL FORCING...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

BY WEDNEDAY AND THURSDAY ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS MOVES EAST.
AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

ISOLD/SCT TSRA EXPECTED MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KMOT TO KBIS. LATER
TONIGHT...LCL BR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 11, 2:37 PM CDT, 4 hours 22 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
237 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

NDZ003>005-011>013-020>023-025-034>037-046>048-050-051-121945-
RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-OLIVER-MCLEAN-
SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-EMMONS-
LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
237 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.

HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 95 AND 100 ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK AT
1-800-247-0212 OR VIA FACEBOOK OR TWITTER.

NDZ001-002-009-010-017>019-031>033-040>045-121945-
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
SIOUX-
237 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

JJS/AJ

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 11, 5:29 PM CDT, 1 hour 30 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
529 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

NDZ020>022-035-112315-
OLIVER-BURLEIGH-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-
529 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BURLEIGH...
NORTHEASTERN OLIVER...SOUTHWESTERN SHERIDAN AND SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN
COUNTIES...

AT 528 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CROSS RANCH STATE
PARK...OR NEAR WASHBURN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WASHBURN...WILTON...TURTLE LAKE...MERCER...CROSS RANCH STATE PARK...
HENSLER...PRICE...FALKIRK...NEW JOHNS LAKE AND SANGER.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR WASHBURN...GET OUT OF
THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING
CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4707 10092 4719 10122 4763 10095 4743 10038
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 217DEG 26KT 4726 10096

MATHEWS

Special weather statement, Jul 11, 6:18 PM CDT, 41 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
618 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

NDZ002-003-010-011-120000-
BURKE-WARD-RENVILLE-MOUNTRAIL-
618 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN RENVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN WARD...BURKE AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES...

AT 617 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BURKE AND
NORTHERN MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOWBELLS...KENMARE...POWERS LAKE...LIGNITE...FLAXTON...LOSTWOOD...
NORTHGATE...COTEAU AND NIOBE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4844 10223 4848 10274 4900 10252 4900 10187
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 210DEG 30KT 4893 10229

MATHEWS

Local storm report, Jul 11, 6:34 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             6 SSE LIGNITE           48.79N 102.53W
07/11/2015  E0.75 INCH       BURKE              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MMATHEWS

Local storm report, Jul 11, 6:38 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             6 SSE LIGNITE           48.79N 102.53W
07/11/2015  E0.75 INCH       BURKE              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL BEGAN AT 545 CDT AND ENDED BEFORE 625 CDT

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

MMATHEWS

Local storm report, Jul 11, 6:57 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             9 E WASHBURN            47.30N 100.84W
07/11/2015  E1.25 INCH       MCLEAN             ND   PUBLIC

            LITTLE WIND WITH THE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANIED THE
            LARGE HAIL. PUBLIC REPORT VIA MCLEAN COUNTY RURAL
            DIRECTORY.

&&

NHEINERT

Special weather statement, Jul 11, 6:59 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
659 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

NDZ011-012-021-120045-
MCHENRY-WARD-MCLEAN-
659 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WARD...SOUTHWESTERN
MCHENRY AND NORTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES...

AT 658 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BUTTE...OR 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF MCCLUSKY...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUTTE...BENEDICT...VOLTAIRE...BALFOUR...KIEF...BERGEN...RUSO AND
STRAWBERRY LAKE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4801 10041 4785 10052 4785 10058 4775 10058
      4767 10063 4767 10102 4803 10120
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 186DEG 20KT 4776 10083

MATHEWS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 11, 12:00 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Stutsman	30 min
Jul 11, 2:10 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Foster	50 min
Jul 11, 3:17 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Foster	43 min
Jul 11, 4:13 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Divide	47 min
Jul 11, 4:54 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Divide	51 min
Jul 11, 5:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Burke	51 min
Jul 11, 5:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burke	54 min
Jul 11, 5:29 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Sheridan	46 min
Jul 11, 5:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, McLean, Sheridan	62 min
Jul 11, 6:18 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Burke	42 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.