Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 4, 2015Stutsman County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this special weather statement at Jul 4, 2015, 7:21 PM CDT for Stutsman County, North Dakota. It was in force for 24 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 4, 2015, 7:21 PM CDT (00:21 UTC)
Expired: Jul 4, 2015, 7:45 PM CDT
In force: 24 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND

County Stutsman County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2452 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -29 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1727 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 74 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 146 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 8.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

729 
WWUS83 KBIS 050021
SPSBIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
721 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015
 
NDZ037-050045-
STUTSMAN-
721 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL STUTSMAN COUNTY...

AT 721 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 6 MILES WEST OF
JAMESTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JAMESTOWN AND ELDRIDGE. 

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE 
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED 
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4683 9896 4698 9895 4704 9854 4679 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 270DEG 15KT 4689 9885 
$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 4, 7:05 PM CDT, 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 4, 7:05 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG
INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSING LINE...SO EXPECT THE
SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. ALSO...A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO
RANDOMLY POP UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE NEAR THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ONE TO THE EAST OF JAMESTOWN HAS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL...BUT SO FAR HAS REMAINED SUB-SEVERE. OFF TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST...STORMS HAVE BEEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST SO EXPECT TO BE
TRIMMING OFF THE BACK SIDE OF THE WATCH SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH...BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE.
INITIAL STORM MODE MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
DEWPOINT SPREADS AND HIGH LCLS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MERGE
INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE
STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT...THINK THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST...WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF THUNDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST...THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MENTION
SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MILD AND STORMY WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RETURN
FLOW KICKS RIGHT BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN WARM UP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MANY PROGRESSIVE WAVES BRINGING REGULAR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SCT TSRA...SOME WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME LCL MVFR VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LCL MVFR
VIS/CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 4, 2:32 PM CDT, 4 hours 49 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
232 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-046>048-050-051-050745-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
232 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NDZ040>045-050745-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
232 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

TWH/AJ

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 4, 6:14 PM CDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
614 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     TSTM WND GST     STANLEY                 48.32N 102.39W
07/04/2015  M59 MPH          MOUNTRAIL          ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN

&&

KROLAK

Local storm report, Jul 4, 6:17 PM CDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
617 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W 4 BEARS LODGE       47.98N 102.66W
07/04/2015  E60 MPH          MCKENZIE           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AJ

Special weather statement, Jul 4, 6:23 PM CDT, 58 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NDZ037-050000-
STUTSMAN ND-
623 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL STUTSMAN COUNTY...

AT 623 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES EAST OF CLEVELAND...OR 13 MILES WEST OF JAMESTOWN...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND...ELDRIDGE AND WINDSOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4684 9912 4692 9913 4699 9886 4678 9882
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 266DEG 11KT 4690 9899

SCHILD

Local storm report, Jul 4, 6:56 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
656 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     HAIL             6 NE TOLLEY             48.79N 101.73W
07/04/2015  E1.00 INCH       RENVILLE           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KROLAK

Local storm report, Jul 4, 6:58 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
658 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             6 NE TOLLEY             48.79N 101.73W
07/04/2015  E1.00 INCH       RENVILLE           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL OCCURRED BETWEEN 545PM AND 600 PM CDT

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...REMARKS

KROLAK

Special weather statement, Jul 4, 7:21 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
721 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NDZ037-050045-
STUTSMAN-
721 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL STUTSMAN COUNTY...

AT 721 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 6 MILES WEST OF
JAMESTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JAMESTOWN AND ELDRIDGE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4683 9896 4698 9895 4704 9854 4679 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 270DEG 15KT 4689 9885

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 4, 7:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bottineau, McHenry, Renville, Ward	58 min
Jul 4, 7:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Stutsman	27 min
Jul 4, 8:11 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Stutsman	3 hr
Jul 4, 8:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	McHenry	46 min
Jul 4, 8:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Stutsman	28 min
Jul 4, 8:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Rolette	33 min
Jul 4, 9:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Rolette	38 min
Jul 4, 10:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Wells	36 min
Jul 4, 10:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Wells	38 min
Jul 5, 12:18 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Foster	57 min
Jul 5, 1:40 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Wells	35 min
Jul 5, 5:11 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Billings, Golden Valley, McKenzie	34 min
Jul 5, 6:08 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Bowman	37 min
Jul 5, 7:48 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Pierce	42 min
Jul 5, 7:56 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Sheridan	49 min
Jul 5, 8:06 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Oliver	39 min
Jul 5, 8:31 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Burleigh, Kidder, Pierce, Sheridan, Wells	44 min
Jul 5, 10:22 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Foster	38 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.