Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OVERALL...THE
INCOMING 00 UTC NAM AND 00-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO CROSS INTO NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 06 UTC...HOWEVER...ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR IS A BIT LATER...AROUND 11-13 UTC. ASSOCIATED THREATS
REMAIN THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

GIVEN THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 18 UTC NAM VERIFYING WELL
WITH OBSERVED  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...BLENDED
POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.
OVERALL...EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART TO
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING...BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND 5-6 UTC...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THEREAFTER WITH PHASING
OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM WYOMING.
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES
AND TALL...THIN CAPE PROFILES. HOWEVER...850 MB CAPE VALUES OF
700-900 J/KG AND AROUND 20 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SOME
SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A DIRTY MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS...SLOWLY PUSHING EAST IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV OVER THE LEE OF THE ALBERTA ROCKIES MOVING EASTWARD.
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER PRETTY MUCH ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. ENHANCED LINE OF BKN-OVC CU AND SOME WEAK RADAR
RETURNS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DEVILS
LAKE BASIN ALONG AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR A SHOWERS OR GENERIC
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MY NORTHWEST MAY ALSO SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM YET TODAY.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING EMBEDDED IMPULSES
EJECTING OUT OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING
INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
LATER TONIGHT THEN PROCEED EAST SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. INTERACTION OF ENERGY ALOFT AND THE SFC
TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FROM WEST TO
EAST FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION NOW
INTO TONIGHT WILL SEE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS ACROSS THE REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS. OVERALL SHOULD SEE 0.5-1.5"
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS. OFFICE DISCUSSION WAS HELD AND WAS DECIDED BASED ON
12Z MODELS NOT TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES. SOILS ARE NOT VERY
SATURATED WITH THE LAST RAINFALL 3-4 DAYS AGO...AND NOT SEEING THE
REALLY EXCESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS WHERE WE SEE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
PROBLEMS. LOCALIZED FLOOD PRODUCTS MAY BE WARRANTED LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN ALL
PRODUCTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT...OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION INTO QUASI ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE HIGHLIGHTING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 05-06 UTC TONIGHT...AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO
MVFR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUE CENTRAL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-040>045-070245-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-SLOPE-HETTINGER-
GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
933 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS WEST
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING
WEST AND CENTRAL...BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DECREASING ACROSS THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

FREQUENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
SEVERE WEATHER AND RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BISMARCK AT 701-223-4582...OR VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

NDZ025-036-037-046>048-050-051-070245-
FOSTER-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
933 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FREQUENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AND RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK AT 701-223-4582...OR VIA
SOCIAL MEDIA.

AYD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1011 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

NDZ001-060345-
DIVIDE-
1011 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN DIVIDE COUNTY...

AT 1010 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 9 MILES WEST OF CROSBY...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM...IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROSBY AND AMBROSE.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 4899 10308 4876 10307 4880 10360 4898 10361
      4900 10336
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 268DEG 21KT 4890 10349

AYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1113 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

NDZ001-009-060445-
DIVIDE-WILLIAMS-
1113 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMS
AND SOUTHWESTERN DIVIDE COUNTIES...

AT 1112 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR WRITING ROCK STATE HISTORICAL SITE TO 10 MILES
WEST OF BONETRAIL...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRENORA...BONETRAIL...WRITING ROCK STATE HISTORICAL SITE...BLACKTAIL
LAKE...APPAM...HANKS AND ZAHL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4871 10405 4884 10401 4891 10347 4824 10369
      4829 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0412Z 270DEG 17KT 4878 10394 4839 10407

AYD