Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FORMING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN AN
AREA OF MARGINAL CAPE AND SHEAR. WILL EXTEND THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH
RIDGE STRETCHING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. COMPACT UPPER LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA BORDER
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...STRETCHING INTO FAR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LOITER OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ENHANCING
LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW END THUNDER CHANCES MENTIONED.

ON ON THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO START THE
DAY...THOUGH CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW
RETRACTS TOWARDS THE WEST. BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED BY MID-DAY OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AS MODEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW/DEEP TROUGH IN
THE GREAT BASIN EJECTS NORTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN WYOMING AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
INTO EASTERN MONTANA WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE IN
MAINLY WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH TODAYS
GFS MODEL CONSENSUS IS ADVERTISING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINING IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
12Z ECMWF REMAINS MORE ROBUST REGARDING THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE WEST. TAKING A
BLEND STILL YIELDS A HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN THE
WEST...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHC IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS (BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS OF 30KT-35KT) DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEEDED
DURING THIS TIME AS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 30 MPH. ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY RESULTING IN
WEAK RIDGING OVER NORTH DAKOTA. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW AND ULTIMATELY THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
AND AMOUNTS. THE SUPERBLEND SPREADS A CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE AND NO
CHANGES TO THIS IDEA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST ON THE COOLER SIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 55-60F...THEN RISING INTO THE MID 60S MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. VFR EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS TOO
UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-020015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
705 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 /605 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A FEW MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR FUTURE UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
627 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

NDZ033-034-010015-
STARK ND-MORTON ND-
627 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN STARK AND
NORTHWESTERN MORTON COUNTIES...

AT 626 PM CDT/526 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OVER RICHARDTON...OR 22 MILES EAST OF DICKINSON...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HEBRON AND RICHARDTON.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4682 10238 4700 10234 4700 10214 4698 10214
      4698 10197 4674 10199
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 278DEG 11KT 4691 10231

ABELING

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