Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
945 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 3AM CDT
TUESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY. AT 6 PM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL FOLLOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY STRONG WEST WINDS OF
30 TO 45KTS WILL SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046-290245-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCKENZIE-DUNN-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
942 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457 IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 AM CDT.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN THREATS. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING SPREADING EAST BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST AND NORTH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ALL HAIL...WINDS OVER 40 MPH...FLOODING...AND
TORNADOES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 701-223-4582 OR VIA
SOCIAL MEDIA.

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051-290245-
BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
942 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING
WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING SPREADING EAST BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST AND NORTH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ALL HAIL...WINDS OVER 40 MPH...FLOODING...AND
TORNADOES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 701-223-4582 OR VIA
SOCIAL MEDIA.

KS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
819 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

NDZ017-031>033-280245-
STARK-MCKENZIE-BILLINGS-GOLDEN VALLEY-
819 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

...A CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT WESTERN
STARK...SOUTHWESTERN MCKENZIE...BILLINGS AND GOLDEN VALLEY
COUNTIES...

AT 818 PM MDT...THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MEDORA...OR 17 MILES EAST OF BEACH...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEACH...BELFIELD...MEDORA...GOLVA...SENTINEL BUTTE...TROTTERS...
GRASSY BUTTE...SKAAR...SOUTH FAIRFIELD...FAIRFIELD...FRYBURG AND
ALPHA.

LAT...LON 4745 10405 4745 10310 4732 10308 4664 10316
      4663 10380 4657 10381 4654 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 179DEG 21KT 4697 10363

HEINERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
928 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 NNE EAST FAIRVIEW    47.99N 103.96W
07/27/2015  E60 MPH          WILLIAMS           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 S BONETRAIL          48.26N 103.82W
07/27/2015  E70 MPH          WILLIAMS           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF ROOF AND BARN DOORS BLOWN OUT

&&

AJ

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