Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Bismarck, ND

784 
WWUS53 KBIS 012315
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
615 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

NDC061-075-101-012345-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150601T2345Z/
RENVILLE ND-WARD ND-MOUNTRAIL ND-
615 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN RENVILLE...NORTHWESTERN WARD AND NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES...

AT 615 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF DONNYBROOK...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF STANLEY...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BERTHOLD...CARPIO...FOXHOLM...DONNYBROOK...BLAISDELL...COULEE...TAGUS
AND HARTLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4832 10144 4831 10217 4855 10220 4859 10195
      4865 10163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 264DEG 16KT 4846 10205 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JONES

368 
WWUS53 KBIS 012338
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

NDC075-012347-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150601T2345Z/
RENVILLE ND-
638 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN RENVILLE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4831 10210 4847 10204 4842 10176 4832 10168
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 312DEG 14KT 4835 10199 

$$

NDC061-101-012345-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150601T2345Z/
WARD ND-MOUNTRAIL ND-
638 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL WARD AND NORTHEASTERN MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES...

AT 637 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BLAISDELL...OR
18 MILES EAST OF STANLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BERTHOLD...BLAISDELL...HARTLAND AND TAGUS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4831 10210 4847 10204 4842 10176 4832 10168
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 312DEG 14KT 4835 10199 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JONES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
321 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THIS EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEST COAST
TROUGH...WILL STREAM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONT
WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW AND SHOULD SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON.

RAP MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS 30-40 KNOTS OF H5 FLOW OVERSPREADING THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...INCREASING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TO 35-40 KNOTS...WHICH
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS AS WELL AS A FEW
SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOWER 80S...AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1500-2500
J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS AN MARCH
EAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT TO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

FOR TUESDAY...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING IN THE
MORNING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT LOOKS CONDITIONAL UPON
CLEARING BEHIND THE INITIAL MORNING CONVECTION. NAM MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTS SOME DRY SLOTTING WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM DOES APPEAR TO
BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH WIDESPREAD MUCAPE VALUES OF 3500-4500 J/KG
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...EVEN IF CAPE IS
OVERDONE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS
INSTABILITY...CO LOCATED WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION. SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
FAVORABLE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT WITH STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE MODE. EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INITIAL INSTABILITY DUE TO RAIN
COOLED AIR AND CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES CLEAR OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WOULD THEN LIKELY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ...POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD
AND RETURN FLOW KICKS IN...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING CATEGORY THROUGH PERIOD...HOWEVER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND KDIK/KISN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ZH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045-022030-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCKENZIE-DUNN-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-SLOPE-
HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
325 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
HAIL...WIND...RAIN GREATER THAN AN INCH AND ANY DAMAGE BY CALLING
701-250-4494 OR BY POSTING TO THE NWS BISMARCK FACEBOOK OR TWITTER
PAGES.

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-022030-
BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-BURLEIGH-
KIDDER-STUTSMAN-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
325 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
HAIL...WIND...RAIN GREATER THAN AN INCH AND ANY DAMAGE BY CALLING
701-250-4494 OR BY POSTING TO THE NWS BISMARCK FACEBOOK OR TWITTER
PAGES.

ZH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
542 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

NDZ010-011-012330-
WARD ND-MOUNTRAIL ND-
542 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WARD AND
NORTHEASTERN MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES...

AT 542 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF PALERMO...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF STANLEY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARPIO...PALERMO...DONNYBROOK...COULEE AND HARTLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4869 10184 4846 10184 4846 10171 4840 10168
      4832 10220 4848 10231 4871 10185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 246DEG 21KT 4843 10216

JONES