Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
526 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 519 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THINK THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A
VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES NOTED SLIDING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
CURRENT WAVE OVER OUR AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION MAINLY
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A PAIR OF WAVES OVER EASTERN
MONTANA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING CONTINUE THEIR APPROACH...WITH A
VARIETY OF ADDITIONAL WAVES BEHIND.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE PARADE OF SHORT WAVES LIFT THROUGH THE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST HIGHER INSTABILITY (2-3 KJ/KG) OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA THOUGH SHEAR IS MARGINAL...GREATEST TO THE NORTH.
WITH THAT SAID...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND
THREAT INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER THING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IS THE LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN TRAINING STORMS...AS ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE WET WITH MODELS
ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ~160 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LAST OF
THE SHORT WAVES MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOWER
VALUES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO
BE QUITE LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD REGARDING A
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTH DAKOTA. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN MOVES EAST TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA/MANITOBA...AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. HAVE
BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN CHANCES ARE
BETTER FOR MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

THE MODELS THEN DEVELOP A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN
CANADA...AND BRING THE WESTERLIES AND HENCE THE JET STREAM FARTHER
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CANADA. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE WEAKER
AND ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW OR NO CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...BUT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID A BROAD BRUSH VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES AND
WILL NEED TO MODIFY AS STORMS MOVE NEAR ANY PARTICULAR SITE. MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
537 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-162245-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
537 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY CENTRAL THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE ACROSS
THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES AREA WIDE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK AT
1-800-247-0212 OR VIA FACEBOOK OR TWITTER.

TWH

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