Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
551 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

MID LEVEL LOW SWINGING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...PUSHING EAST WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE WE
EXPECT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH TO DECREASE WITH THE ONSET OF DARKNESS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT
NEAR THE LOW AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN
WITH BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH MAINLY 70S AHEAD
OF IT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES COMPACT LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE WORKING TOWARDS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE NEXT
WAVE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO FAR
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ENOUGH
STRETCHES TOWARDS CENTRAL TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS
TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE OFF
TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
WILL PUSH THROUGH MANITOBA TONIGHT AND OPEN UP. THIS WILL KEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WHILE TROUGH
FROM OPENING LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE
PASSING TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING
OVER THE EAST AND NORTH. ALSO...LEFT AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE SHIFT IN UPPER FLOW TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL PROMOTE WAVE
AFTER WAVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. WITH A LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE COLD/DRY AIR PUSH...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS TYPICALLY PERFORM
POORLY IN THIS WEAKER FLOW ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...FOR THIS
FORECAST UTILIZED A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS LEAD TO
GENERALLY A CHANCE EVERYDAY...WITH LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AS MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING TOWARDS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
555 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-132300-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
555 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ISOLATED AND LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
702 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

NDZ004-005-130030-
ROLETTE ND-BOTTINEAU ND-
702 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ROLETTE AND
NORTHEASTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTIES...

AT 702 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LAKE METIGOSHE STATE PARK...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF BOTTINEAU...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE METIGOSHE STATE PARK AND INTERNATIONAL PEACE GARDEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4893 9996 4888 10052 4899 10064 4900 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 253DEG 31KT 4897 10036

ZH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
714 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

NDZ020-034-035-130100-
OLIVER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-
714 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

...GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHWESTERN BURLEIGH...SOUTHEASTERN OLIVER AND NORTHEASTERN MORTON
COUNTIES...

AT 709 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS WERE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...15 MILES WEST OF MANDAN...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT ONE HOUR. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE BISMARCK AND
MANDAN AREAS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BISMARCK...MANDAN...LINCOLN...MENOKEN...LAKE HARMON...FISH CREEK
DAM...MCDOWELL DAM RECREATION AREA...JUDSON...MCKENZIE...BALDWIN...
SWEET BRIAR LAKE...CROWN BUTTE LAKE...DOUBLE DITCH INDIAN VILLAGE...
FORT ABRAHAM LINCOLN STATE PARK AND UNIVERSITY OF MARY.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...MOVE INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
PASS.

LAT...LON 4665 10147 4704 10133 4710 10038 4664 10031
      4663 10050
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 272DEG 37KT 4682 10120

HEINERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
724 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

NDZ012-013-130115-
MCHENRY ND-PIERCE ND-
724 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN MCHENRY AND
PIERCE COUNTIES...

AT 723 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WILLOW CITY TO 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BUTTE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... RUGBY...TOWNER...DENBIGH...BALTA...
WOLFORD...BALFOUR...ORRIN...GEORGE LAKE AND SILVA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4854 9950 4838 9950 4837 9985 4802 9985
      4801 9981 4785 9981 4786 10076 4855 10051
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 266DEG 33KT 4856 10027 4774 10060

ZH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
802 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 NE DRAKE              48.02N 100.24W
07/12/2015  E60 MPH          MCHENRY            ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

NHEINERT

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