Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Binghamton, NY

July 19, 2015Sullivan County, New York

NWS Binghamton, NY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2015, 5:48 PM EDT for Sullivan County, New York. It was in force for 57 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2015, 5:48 PM EDT (21:48 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2015, 6:45 PM EDT
In force: 57 min
Issued by: NWS Binghamton, NY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Sullivan County, NY

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 19, 3:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 280 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -117 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 797 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 79 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 123 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 19, 3:44 PM EDT, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 3:44 PM EDT, 2 hours 4 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
344 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE
REPLACED BY A COLD FRONT WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR
WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AFTN TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION
WITH DEWPTS AROUND 70 PRODUCING SFC BASED CAPES OF 3000+
J/KG...THE PROBLEM IS THAT WE ARE SOMEWHAT CAPPED...THOUGH THAT IS
BREAKING DOWN SLOWING RIGHT NOW...WE HAVE REALLY POOR MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.5 TO 6...AND REALLY NO TRIGGER/FORCING
MECHANISM AS OF THIS WRITING AND ARE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE LESS
THAN FAVORABLE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. SO WHAT
DOES ALL THAT MEAN...ITS LIMITING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM DEVELOPING AND GETTING GOING...FOR NOW AND UNTIL SOME OF
THESE FACTS CHANGE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR MORE EXTENSIVE
COVERAGE AND STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT WILL
FINALLY ENTER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND WITH THAT THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH A MORE DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT ALL ALLOWING FOR BETTER COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO THE
CONVECTION...THOUGH WE WILL BE LOSING HEATING AS POSSIBLE LIMITING
FACTOR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH THE
CURRENT SET UP...ALSO WITH PWATS NEARING 2.0 INCHES HEAVY
RAINFALL WITHIN STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SFC RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND DRY OUT THE
REGION...DEWPTS WILL DROP BY 5-10 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION
LINGERING IN THE LOWER 60S...WILL DEFINITELY BE NOTICABLE. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE MONDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S FOR MOST. OVER LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO LOWER 60S WITH
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS POSSIBLE MOVING IN LATE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES. STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWS FOR HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

A GENERAL TROF IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH ON TUESDAY. STILL BROAD
BRUSHING THIS EVENT DUE TO TIMING ISSUES. REST OF THE WEEK WILL
FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES...BUT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM WEDS-SAT. MODELS SHOW BETTER INDICATIONS
OF WEAK WAVES APPROACHING SUNDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
AGAIN FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED ACROSS CNY AND HAVE AFFECTED SOME OF THE
AIRPORTS WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
CIGS. THE CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS (23Z) BEFORE
A POSSIBLE BREAK IN ACTIVITY. A STRONGER WEATHER FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE LATER EVENING WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CNY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
EVENT...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING TO FORECAST FOR NOW AND AMEND
DPENDING ON TRENDS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MAY HELP TO DIMINISH
THREAT BY MIDNIGHT OR LATER.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED/THUR/FRI...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLD AM IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 3:56 PM EDT, 1 hour 52 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
356 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-202000-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
356 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ASSISTANCE MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 90S EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN DROP OFF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

JAB

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 3:14 PM EDT, 2 hours 34 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
314 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

NYZ025-044-055-056-192015-
BROOME NY-TIOGA NY-CORTLAND NY-TOMPKINS NY-
314 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN TIOGA...SOUTHERN
TOMPKINS...SOUTHWESTERN CORTLAND AND NORTHWESTERN BROOME COUNTIES
...

* AT 314 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  OVER ITHACA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DANBY AROUND 330 PM EDT.
  BESEMER AROUND 335 PM EDT.
  BROOKTONDALE AND SOUTH DANBY AROUND 340 PM EDT.
  SLATERVILLE SPRINGS AROUND 345 PM EDT.
  WILLSEYVILLE AROUND 350 PM EDT.
  CAROLINE AROUND 355 PM EDT.
  HARFORD AROUND 405 PM EDT.
  BERKSHIRE...RICHFORD AND NEWARK VALLEY AROUND 415 PM EDT.

LAT...LON 4235 7667 4252 7658 4242 7602 4216 7615
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 290DEG 15KT 4242 7654

DJP

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 3:27 PM EDT, 2 hours 21 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
327 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

NYZ045-056-192030-
BROOME NY-CHENANGO NY-
327 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CHENANGO AND NORTHWESTERN
BROOME COUNTIES  ...

* AT 327 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  NEAR WHITNEY POINT...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF GREATER BINGHAMTON
  AIRPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GREENE AND SMITHVILLE FLATS AROUND 345 PM EDT.
  BRISBEN AND MC DONOUGH AROUND 355 PM EDT.
  COVENTRY AROUND 400 PM EDT.
  SOUTH OXFORD AROUND 405 PM EDT.
  OXFORD AROUND 415 PM EDT.
  GUILFORD AROUND 425 PM EDT.
  NORWICH...MT UPTON AND ROCKDALE AROUND 430 PM EDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

LAT...LON 4240 7540 4236 7541 4222 7594 4238 7604
      4241 7597 4241 7587 4246 7587 4264 7545
      4253 7538 4251 7540 4247 7540 4241 7537
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 244DEG 20KT 4233 7590

DJP

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 3:49 PM EDT, 1 hour 59 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
349 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

NYZ045-046-056-057-192045-
OTSEGO NY-BROOME NY-DELAWARE NY-CHENANGO NY-
349 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE...
SOUTHEASTERN CHENANGO...SOUTHEASTERN BROOME AND SOUTHWESTERN OTSEGO
COUNTIES  ...

* AT 348 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  OVER AFTON...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF DEPOSIT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  25 MPH.

* HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BAINBRIDGE AROUND 400 PM EDT.
  SIDNEY AROUND 415 PM EDT.
  UNADILLA AROUND 425 PM EDT.
  SIDNEY CENTER AROUND 430 PM EDT.
  EAST SIDNEY AROUND 435 PM EDT.
  OTEGO AND FRANKLIN AROUND 445 PM EDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

LAT...LON 4208 7556 4224 7566 4250 7508 4226 7492
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 244DEG 20KT 4220 7553

DJP

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 3:57 PM EDT, 1 hour 51 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
357 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

PAZ043-192100-
WYOMING PA-
357 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WYOMING COUNTY  ...

* AT 357 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  NEAR RICKETTS GLEN STATE PARK...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF WYALUSING...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LOVELTON AND KASSON BROOK AROUND 425 PM EDT.
  NOXEN AND FORKSTON AROUND 430 PM EDT.
  MEHOOPANY AND EVANS FALLS AROUND 440 PM EDT.
  MESHOPPEN AROUND 445 PM EDT.
  TUNKHANNOCK AND OSTERHOUT AROUND 455 PM EDT.
  LAKE CAREY AROUND 500 PM EDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4152 7622 4161 7621 4165 7612 4164 7584
      4152 7580 4151 7578 4149 7578 4138 7621
      4138 7628
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 244DEG 20KT 4144 7635

DJP

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 4:47 PM EDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

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Special weather statement, Jul 19, 5:44 PM EDT, 4 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Binghamton, NY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 3:14 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Tompkins	61 min
Jul 19, 3:27 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Chenango	63 min
Jul 19, 3:49 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Delaware	56 min
Jul 19, 4:47 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Otsego	43 min
Jul 19, 5:44 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Sullivan	61 min
Jul 19, 6:09 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Delaware	36 min
Jul 19, 6:52 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Delaware	53 min
Jul 19, 7:48 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Chenango	57 min
Jul 18, 8:18 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Pike	42 min
Jul 19, 3:57 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	BGM	Wyoming	63 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New York, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.