Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1017 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY BRINGING WARM AIR AND SUNNY SKIES. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...AS EARLIER THOUGHT...THUNDERSTORMS FIRED AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS WITHIN A STRONGLY
FORCED...SHEARED...BUT ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE GONE SEVERE ACROSS OUR NORTH COUNTRY WITH A WIND
THREAT AS MAIN CONCERN. SVR WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM...AND ALL
LOOKS GOOD WITH TIMING AND IMPACT AREAS. MESO MODELS SUGGEST RAPID
WANING AFTER 06Z AS FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST AND STORMS DROP SOUTH.
GENERAL POP/WX IDEA STILL ON TARGET. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GROWING CONCERN THIS EVENING THAT A STRONG...DYNAMICALLY FORCED
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL LEAD TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN OUR
AREA. MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION...AS SEEN IN
THETA-E FIELDS...WAS STEEPENING LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
REGION. 500-300 MB JET STREAK ADVANCING ON THE AREA FROM LOWER
ONTARIO WAS PROVIDING OVER 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND EVEN
TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS IS PRESENT WHICH COULD SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR HEALTHY MESOCYCLONES. MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGEST NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 02Z-06Z TIME
FRAME JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEW
YORK...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. REALLY LIKE THE NAM4KM AND
CANADIAN RGEM IDEAS...ALTHOUGH HRRR AND WRF-NMM ALSO SEEM TO HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.

THE MAIN SHORT WAVE FORCING LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS TO BE...SAY ROUGHLY FROM PEO-SYR-UCA...WITH
MORE GENERAL TSTM ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH...IF IT CAN MAKE IT.
BULK OF FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 02Z-07Z WINDOW OF BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...INCLUDING ANY SVR POTENTIAL.

FORECAST CHANGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL AT TIMES...WITH A RAPID
DROP OFF TO NEAR ZERO CHANCES FOR RAIN IN NORTHEAST PA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HIGHER POP AREAS WERE ALSO GIVEN ENHANCED HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...FQT LIGHTNING TERMINOLOGY.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE FNT COULD TRIGGER SOME CONV OVER THE NEPA ZONES
DURING THU...ESP CNSRDG THE HTG XPCTD. FCST SNDGS...ESP THE
NAM...SHOW AVBL ENERGY FOR CONV TMRW AFTN. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
THE VERY DRY AIR...AND A MORE STABLE MID LYR SHOWN ON THE MODELS.
INTRSTG TEMP FCST FOR NEPA WITH THE MET GUID GIVING AVP 90F. WITH
THE BLENDED GUID STILL GOT AN 88F FOR AVP SO IT WILL BE A WRM DAY.

WEAK RDGG SFC AND ALFOT FOR FRI AS A WV AND SFC LOW DEEPEN TO THE
WEST. SOME ISLTD CONV PSBL IN THE DIRTY RDG AND MORE CLDS SHD
LIMIT THE HTG BY A FEW DEGREES OVER NEPA.

BEST JET DYNAMCS PASS NORTH OF NY FRI NGT AND SAT AND SHD BE THE
FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN...LVG THE FCST AREA IN SCT TO MUMEROUS SHWRS
FROM LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. HIPRES BLDS IN DURING SAT BRINGING
CLRG SKIES LTR IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS IN THE VICINITY FOR THE
DURATION. SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. SAT NGT TO SUN NGT FAIRLY DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
NE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY THEN PUSH THROUGH WED.

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR WEATHER THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SE FROM
WESTERN NY AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY,
JUST A FEW STRONG STORMS ON RADAR BUT INDICATIONS THESE MAY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE..ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN SITES SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF STORMS IN THE TAFS FOR KITH/KSYR/KRME FOR
LATER THIS EVENING AFTER 2Z. IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE FOR THESE
AREAS, AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IF NOT IFR. FOR
KELM/KBGM, LESS CERTAINTY IF STORMS WILL OCCUR HOWEVER
RESTRICTIONS IN VISBY ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT FOR KELM WITH MVFR VIS.
SHOWERS/STORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD MISS KAVP TO THE NORTH WITH VFR
CONTINUING. IN ADDITION TO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS STORMS ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. SHOWERS/STORMS
EXIT BY LATER TONIGHT WITH VFR FOR THURSDAY UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE KAVP WHERE A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MOST LIKELY THESE STAY SOUTH.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE S/SW TONIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS EXCEPT
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THURSDAY WINDS WILL BE W/NW
AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTN-EVE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT AVP OTHERWISE VFR.

FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL AGAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SAT NGT-SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR.

MON...RESTRICTIONS PSBL AGAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF/TAC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
912 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

NYZ009-016>018-036-037-120115-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA-
912 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ015-023-025-044>046-120115-
YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-
912 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHERN SUSQUEHANNA
REGION TONIGHT. ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
CLOSE...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THESE COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ022-024-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-120115-
STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
912 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

JAB