Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1110 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

1055 AM UPDATE...TRICKY SCENARIO UNFOLDING...WE HAVE AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR (FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER)
BUT STILL A LOT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT HOW UNSTABLE
WE GET. THAT SAID, SEE AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OCCURRING SO STILL A
POTENTIAL THAT STORMS INITIATED BY SHORTWAVE/HEATING COULD BECOME
SEVERE, POSSIBLY EVEN SUPERCELLULAR, IF WE GET ENOUGH HEATING. FOR
THIS REASON BEEFED UP ENHANCED WORDING IN GRIDS TO MORE
EXPLICITLY MENTION SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT BUT HEAVY RAIN,
HAIL, EVEN TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT CAN'T BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE VERY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THINKING IS INITIAL THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST AROUND 18Z OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AS INITIAL
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM WESTERN NY WITH HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT MIGRATING SOUTH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

430 AM UPDATE... AN ACTIVE PD MAY BE ON TAP FOR CNY/NE PA.

A BATCH OF SHWRS AND ISOLD/ELEVATED THUNDER IS PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH STG WAA FORCING AND THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK S/WV AT MID-LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ACRS OUR NRN ZNS (THE NRN
FINGER LAKES...MOHAWK VLY...AND SRN TUG HILL RGNS)...SHWRS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY NUMEROUS THROUGH THE MRNG
HRS...CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SFC WARM FRNT AND RIBBON OF ISEN LIFT.
MEANWHILE...ACRS THE SRN TIER AND NE PA...SHWRS WILL BE MORE SCTD
IN NATURE...WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE EVEN PSBL INTO EARLY
AFTN...SPCLY OVER PTNS OF NE PA AND OUR WRN CATSKILL ZNS.

THE MOST INTERESTING PD IS THIS AFTN AND EVE...AS THE COMBO OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND HGT FALLS ALOFT...AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
UPR-LVL TROUGH...DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. CURRENTLY...WE
PROJECT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY TO RESIDE OVER NY'S SRN TIER AND
NE PA...WHERE ML CAPES COULD APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN MORE
PERSISTENT CLDS/PCPN...OUR NRN/FAR WRN ZNS SHOULD REMAIN MORE
STABLE. WE FEEL THE NAM AND RGNL GEM HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON
THE EVOLVING CAPE PROFILES...WITH THE GFS/RAP/HRRR MODELS TOO
LOW...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MANY TIMES THE LAST SVRL WEEKS.
ALSO...WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH GOOD NWP AGREEMENT
ON 0-1/0-3/0-6 KM SHEARS OF 20/35/40 KT RESPECTIVELY...BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT...IF REALIZED...COULD SUPPORT
A FEW ROTATING SUPERCELLS...WITH SPC SSEO GRAPHICS INDICATING THIS
POTENTIAL. OUR IN-HOUSE SVR WX ANALOG SYSTEM IS ALSO SHOWING THE
PSBLTY OF ISOLD TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ALL OF THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED LTR TDY...SPCLY AFTER 2-3 PM...AND ALSO NEAR AND E
OF I-81...AS WELL AS NEAR AND S OF I-88.

BESIDES THE SVR WX POTENTIAL...ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENTS ALSO
SUPPORT HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL...SPCLY THIS EVE AFTER 6-8 PM.
PROGGED PWAT VALUES (1.75-2") ARE CLOSE TO 200% OF NORMAL...WITH
DEEP WCD'S (10-12 K FT)...AND FAIRLY SMALL MBE VECTORS (PSBL
TRAINING/REPEAT CELLS). SLUGGISH APPROACH OF THE MAIN SFC FRNT
(DEEP-LYRD FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO IT) AND CONTINUED ENTRANCE RGN
UPR JET DYNAMICS OVERNIGHT...COULD KEEP THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HVY
RAIN GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVE (NEAR OR EVEN PAST
MIDNIGHT)...UNTIL MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/RAIN RATES START
TO WEAKEN WITH SLOW DIURNAL STABILIZATION.

IF A SPECIFIC TARGET AREA BCMS MORE CONCRETE LTR TDY OR THIS
EVE...THEN A FF WATCH WOULD BE CONSIDERED. UNTIL THEN...WE'LL
SIMPLY CONTINUE TO MENTION DUAL SVR WX/HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST, AND OUR AREA IN
THE FAVORABLE REGION FOR LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF, STEADY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. WHILE PWATS WHICH WILL
BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES EARLY SLOWLY DROP OFF, ANY ADDITIONAL
MODERATE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY MAY STILL CAUSE PROBLEMS
WITH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN IN INTENSITY BY
AFTERNOON BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PERIOD OF DRYING UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE TROF AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST BY 06Z WED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF WEDNESDAY. 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS A GOOD 12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CANADIAN/GFS/NAM ALL BRING IN
PRECIP BY 0Z THURSDAY FROM STEUBEN COUNTY UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES. INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTER 22Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...

WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON SEVERE AND FLOOD POTENTIAL TODAY/TONIGHT,
JUST TOOK A QUICK LOOK AT THE EXTENDED. OVERALL WE ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE. AFTER A WEAKER SYSTEM THURSDAY EXITS, WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MOST MODEL CONSENSUS IS THIS LINGERS INTO
PART OF SATURDAY BUT AS OF NOW, DRIER WEATHER COULD ARRIVE AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...

130 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWING WPC GUIDANCE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH EURO NOT IN. GFS
FASTER WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM LATE WED TO THU. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES ACROSS SE CANADA. A COLD FRONT GOES SE THROUGH THE CWA
THURSDAY. THE FRONT STALLS IN PA FRIDAY. AFTER THAT MODELS DIFFER
ON WHEN AND IF THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NE. UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MON UPDATE... MVFR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MRNG AT KELM/KITH/KBGM...WITH LWR CLDS IN THE VICINITY. AFTER
14-15Z...WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY UNRESTRICTED CONDS INTO EARLY AFTN.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-AFTN INTO THIS EVE...SHWRS/TSTMS WILL
BECOME MORE FREQUENT...HENCE RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OF RESTRICTED
CONDS. WE INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT
KELM/KITH/KBGM/KAVP...WITH JUST SHWRS FOR NOW AT KSYR/KRME.
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHWRS/ISOLD
EVE THUNDER.

GUSTY S TO SW WINDS THIS MRNG (LOCALLY 25-30 KT...SPCLY
KSYR)...WILL DECREASE A BIT BY LTR THIS AFTN AND TNT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUE NIGHT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

WED NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/PCF
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...MLJ/TAC

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