Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Binghamton, NY

Broome County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Madison County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Yates County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Pike County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
245 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1215 PM EDT UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS TRAINING AND FLASH FLOODING...

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AND A
FEW SPRINKLES ARE LEFT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAIN... THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
STORMS ARE BECOMING LESS. THE UPPR LVL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND WE WILL BE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPR LVL JET. THE COMBINATION OF THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY... MID LVL FORCING... AND THE THE UPPR JET WILL CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. PWAT VALUES ARE WELL
ABOVE THE NORM... 150 PERCENT ABOVE... THUS ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH IN TWO ROUNDS.
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z THEN... THEN A
SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 6Z TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO ISSUE A WATCH. WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS... AND MAY ISSUE A WATCH
THIS EVENING IF WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM EDT UPDATE..
CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRIFTING OFF TO THE EAST AND
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY MONDAY EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY DRY... INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.. THUS WE COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT WE TRANSITION INTO A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND THEN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE FORECAST
BECOMES MESSY. THERE ARE HINTS AT A RESIDUAL MCS MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA AND SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WED... AND IT APPEARS IT MAY
BE THE ONLY DRY DAY THIS WEEK.

NOTHING UNUSUAL ASSOCIATED WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DURING THAT PERIOD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOWLY-MOVING EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN
SOME AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT SOME SLIGHTLY DRY AND COOLER AIR
MAY BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED POPS DURING
THAT PERIOD. UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY TO RETURN BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BIGGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES
AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
INCREASING MID LVL CLDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
BEST CHC FOR TSRA LATE THIS AFTN WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY
LOCATED FROM KELM...KITH...AND KAVP. INCLUDED CHC ALSO FOR KSYR
EARLY GIVEN CURRENT STORMS TO THE WEST NEAR KROC. TSRA NOT OUT OF
QUESTION AT KBGM, KRME BUT WILL HANDLE AS NEEDED DUE TO LOWER
PROB. EARLY THIS EVENING...SHRA DEVELOPMENT WILL ADVANCE TO MOST
IF NOT ALL TERMINALS IN VERY MOIST YET ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. EMBEDDED TSRA POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY SHRA. CIGS LOWERING
WITH TIME OVERNIGHT TO FUEL ALT MVFR OR EVEN IFR. WINDS VARIABLE
OR LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...VEERING LIGHT SW
LATE TONIGHT TO WEST MON AM.

.OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA AND TSRA.

TUE NGT-WED...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG ESPECIALLY KELM.

WED NGT-FRI...CHANCE OF SHRA-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE
AVIATION...JML

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