Alert archive / Iowa / Winter Storm Watches in 2015

Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS La Crosse, WI

November 19, 20158 counties in Iowa; Crawford County, Grant County, Richland County, Wisconsin

NWS La Crosse, WI issued this winter storm watch at Nov 19, 2015, 3:16 AM CST for 8 counties in Iowa; Crawford County, Grant County, Richland County, Wisconsin. It took effect at Nov 20, 2015, 3:00 PM CST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 19, 2015, 3:16 AM CST (09:16 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 20, 2015, 3:00 PM CST
Expired
Nov 20, 2015, 3:48 AM CST
In force
Issued by
NWS La Crosse, WI

Counties Allamakee County, IA, Chickasaw County, IA, Clayton County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Howard County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Winneshiek County, IA, Crawford County, WI, Grant County, WI, Richland County, WI

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 196 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2015-11-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2015-11-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 203 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
892 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
203 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
224 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

939 
WWUS43 KARX 190916
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
316 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

.A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...THERE APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 8
INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...THESE TOTALS COULD FLUCTUATE UP OR DOWN.

WHILE THE GROUND AND PAVEMENT REMAIN WARM...THE SNOW RATES WILL
OVERCOME THIS AND ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADS. THIS WILL
IMPACT THOSE TRAVELING FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

IAZ008-009-018-019-191800-
/O.NEW.KARX.WS.A.0002.151120T2100Z-151121T1200Z/
MITCHELL-HOWARD-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHARLES CITY
316 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 

* SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY 
  NIGHT. 

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 

* THE SNOW COULD CREATE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.

* THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING
  CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

IAZ010-011-029-030-WIZ054-055-061-191800-
/O.NEW.KARX.WS.A.0002.151121T0000Z-151121T1800Z/
WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...OELWEIN...
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE
316 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. 

* SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* THE SNOW COULD CREATE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.

* THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

BOYNE/WETENKAMP
4 follow-up statements
569 
WWUS43 KARX 191729
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1129 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...FIRST SNOW EVENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

.A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE EXACT LOCATION IS STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR BUT
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS INCREASES FROM HIGHWAY 20
SOUTHWARD IN IOWA. VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW WILL FALL NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.

WHILE THE GROUND AND PAVEMENT REMAIN WARM...THE SNOW RATES WILL
OVERCOME THIS AND ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADS. THIS
WILL IMPACT THOSE TRAVELING FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD ALSO IMPACT THOSE TRAVELING FOR THE
START OF THE DEER HUNT IN WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING IN FAR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

IAZ008-009-018-019-200130-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.A.0002.151120T2100Z-151121T1200Z/
MITCHELL-HOWARD-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHARLES CITY
1129 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY 
  NIGHT. 

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* THE SNOW COULD CREATE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.

* THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

IAZ010-011-029-030-WIZ054-055-061-200130-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.A.0002.151121T0000Z-151121T1800Z/
WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...OELWEIN...
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE
1129 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

* SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* THE SNOW COULD CREATE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.

* THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

SHEA
974 
WWUS43 KARX 192139
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
339 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...HEAVY SNOW RISK GROWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE EXACT LOCATION IS STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR
BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE
AREAS. CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS INCREASES FROM
HIGHWAY 20 SOUTHWARD IN IOWA. VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW WILL FALL
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

WHILE THE GROUND AND PAVEMENT REMAIN WARM...THE SNOW RATES WILL
OVERCOME THIS AND ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADS. THIS
WILL IMPACT THOSE TRAVELING FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD ALSO IMPACT THOSE TRAVELING FOR THE
START OF THE DEER HUNT IN WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING IN FAR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

IAZ018-019-200545-
/O.UPG.KARX.WS.A.0002.151120T2100Z-151121T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KARX.WS.W.0004.151120T2100Z-151121T1200Z/
FLOYD-CHICKASAW-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHARLES CITY
339 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 3 PM FRIDAY AND THEN DIMINISH 
  AROUND 6 AM SATURDAY. 

* THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM FRIDAY AND 
  MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. 

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 

* LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

* PLAN ON DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE
CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

$$

IAZ029-030-WIZ061-200545-
/O.UPG.KARX.WS.A.0002.151121T0000Z-151121T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KARX.WS.W.0004.151121T0000Z-151121T1800Z/
FAYETTE-CLAYTON-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OELWEIN...PLATTEVILLE
339 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON CST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON CST
SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 6 PM FRIDAY AND THEN DIMINISH 
  AROUND NOON SATURDAY. 

* THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM FRIDAY AND 2
  AM SATURDAY.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 

* LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

* PLAN ON DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE
CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

$$

IAZ008-009-200545-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.A.0002.151120T2100Z-151121T1200Z/
MITCHELL-HOWARD-
339 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 

* SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY 
  NIGHT. 

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 

* SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE. 

* THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

$$

IAZ010-011-WIZ054-055-200545-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.A.0002.151121T0000Z-151121T1800Z/
WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...
RICHLAND CENTER
339 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 

* SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 

* SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE. 

* THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

$$
SHEA
167 
WWUS43 KARX 200345
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
945 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WITHIN THIS BAND...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3
TO 9 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF U.S. HIGHWAY 18. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP AS MUCH AS 10
INCHES OF SNOW. VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW WILL FALL NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.

WHILE THE GROUND AND PAVEMENT REMAIN WARM...THE SNOW RATES WILL
OVERCOME THIS AND ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADS. THIS
WILL IMPACT THOSE TRAVELING FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD ALSO IMPACT THOSE TRAVELING FOR THE
START OF THE DEER HUNT IN WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING IN FAR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

IAZ018-019-201200-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.W.0004.151120T2100Z-151121T1200Z/
FLOYD-CHICKASAW-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHARLES CITY
945 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO
6 AM CST SATURDAY...

* EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 3 PM FRIDAY AND THEN DIMINISH 
  AROUND 6 AM SATURDAY. 

* THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM FRIDAY AND 
  MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. 

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

* LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

* PLAN ON DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE
CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

$$

IAZ029-030-WIZ061-201200-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.W.0004.151121T0000Z-151121T1800Z/
FAYETTE-CLAYTON-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OELWEIN...PLATTEVILLE
945 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO
NOON CST SATURDAY...

* EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 6 PM FRIDAY AND THEN DIMINISH 
  AROUND NOON SATURDAY. 

* THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM FRIDAY AND 
  2 AM SATURDAY. 

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

* LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

* PLAN ON DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE
CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

$$

IAZ008-009-201200-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.A.0002.151120T2100Z-151121T1200Z/
MITCHELL-HOWARD-
945 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY 
  NIGHT. 

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE.

* THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

$$

IAZ010-011-WIZ054-055-201200-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.A.0002.151121T0000Z-151121T1800Z/
WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...
RICHLAND CENTER
945 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

* SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE.

* THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

$$

LAWRENCE
523 
WWUS43 KARX 200948
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
348 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT...

.A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL SET UP ACROSS IOWA TODAY...STRETCHING
INTO FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HEAVY SNOW BAND OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY.
SNOWFALL WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY NORTH OF THE BAND...WITH LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED NORTH OF I-90.

DESPITE WARM GROUNDS AND ROADWAYS...SNOWFALL RATES WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADS. HAZARDOUS WINTER TRAVEL SHOULD BE
EXPECTED. DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY WHERE THE
HEAVY SNOW FALLS. THE EVENING COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED FOR
MANY...ALONG WITH THOSE TRAVELING FOR THE START OF THE DEER SEASON
IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

IAZ008-009-201800-
/O.UPG.KARX.WS.A.0002.151120T2100Z-151121T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KARX.WS.W.0004.151120T2100Z-151121T1200Z/
MITCHELL-HOWARD-
348 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM CST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 3 PM AND THEN DIMINISH AROUND 6 
  AM SATURDAY. 

* THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 

* LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

* PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE
CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

$$

IAZ010-011-WIZ054-055-201800-
/O.UPG.KARX.WS.A.0002.151121T0000Z-151121T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KARX.WS.W.0004.151121T0000Z-151121T1800Z/
WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...
RICHLAND CENTER
348 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 6 PM AND THEN DIMINISH AROUND 
  NOON SATURDAY. 

* THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 

* LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

* PLAN ON DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE
CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

$$

IAZ018-019-201800-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.W.0004.151120T2100Z-151121T1200Z/
FLOYD-CHICKASAW-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHARLES CITY
348 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY. 

* EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 3 PM AND THEN DIMINISH AROUND 6 
  AM SATURDAY. 

* THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 

* LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

* PLAN ON DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE
CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

$$

IAZ029-030-WIZ061-201800-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.W.0004.151121T0000Z-151121T1800Z/
FAYETTE-CLAYTON-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OELWEIN...PLATTEVILLE
348 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON CST SATURDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON CST SATURDAY. 

* EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 6 PM AND THEN DIMINISH AROUND 
  NOON SATURDAY. 

* THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 

* LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES. 

* PLAN ON DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE
CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

$$

MNZ094-095-201800-
/O.NEW.KARX.WW.Y.0014.151120T2100Z-151121T1200Z/
MOWER-FILLMORE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...AUSTIN
348 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM CST SATURDAY. 

* EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 3 PM AND THEN DIMINISH AROUND 6 
  AM SATURDAY. 

* THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 

* LOOK FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. 

* PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN
BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

$$

MNZ096-WIZ053-201800-
/O.NEW.KARX.WW.Y.0014.151121T0000Z-151121T1800Z/
HOUSTON-VERNON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...VIROQUA
348 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST SATURDAY. 

* EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 6 PM AND THEN DIMINISH AROUND 
  NOON SATURDAY. 

* THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 

* LOOK FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. 

* PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN
BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

$$

RIECK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Nov 18, 10:16 PM CST, 5 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 18, 10:16 PM CST, 5 hours before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1016 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD A 979MB LOW IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN...LIFTING
QUICKLY NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST ONT. TRAILING SFC FRONT/TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MN TO WESTERN IA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EAST
AND BEING HELD UP BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH THRU
EASTERN IA. STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EAST HALF OF THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT...ALONG WITH
TEMPS SOME 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. STRONGER WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
TROUGH/FRONT WERE IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN DAKOTAS. AREAS OF RAIN
CONTINUED IN/NEAR THE FCST AREA...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE
MAIN DEFORMATION BAND WAS WRAPPED WESTWARD NEAR THE MN/SD BORDER.

MODEL RUNS OF 18.12Z INITIALIZED WELL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS
THE MID MS VALLEY WAVE LIFTS QUICKLY NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TODAY
AND THE MT SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/NEB.
IMPROVING AGREEMENT FOR THIS ENERGY AND A THIRD WAVE DROPPING SOUTH
THRU SASKAT TO CARVE OUT A DEEP/COLD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY 12Z THU. TREND IS STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS TROUGH AT 12Z
THU. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TROUGH/TROUGH AXIS TO QUICKLY
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/EASTERN ONT THU/THU
NIGHT...WITH RATHER RAPIDLY RISING HGTS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE
TIGHTENING MODEL CONSENSUS THIS PERIOD...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT IS GOOD.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...IA SHORTWAVE/TROUGH AXIS LIFTS QUICKLY NORTH/
EAST OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC
FORCING/LIFT WITH IT. ONCE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES...THE
MAIN SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG 925-850MB COLD
ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND IT LATER THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT. 925MB TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME 280-290K
ISENTROPIC LIFT PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA...UNDER SOME 500-300MB PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
DAKOTAS AND SASKAT SHORTWAVES AS THEY CARVE OUT THE DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. THIS ALL WITH HIGHER
SATURATION/MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE 925-700MB LAYER. THE COLD
ADVECTION/COOLING WILL PUT THE SQUEEZE ON THE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN
AS WELL. CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THRU
THE EVENING...MIXING WITH/ CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA. WITH THE WARM
GROUND APPEARS ANY SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT WOULD BE MINIMAL. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT FOR LATER TONIGHT/THU.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO AROUND 850MB LATE TONIGHT/THU...
WITH AROUND 40KTS OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. WINDS THU
LOOKING TO BE 20-30MPH G35-45MPH...BUMPING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE WEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREAS MUCH OF THU. WILL HOIST A
WINDS ADVISORY FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FCST AREA 15Z-00Z THU.
GRADIENT RELAXES THU NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER WINDS LOOKING TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. UNDER CLEARING
SKIES... WHERE WINDS WOULD DECOUPLE...THU NIGHT LOWS COULD DIP WELL
INTO THE TEENS. FOR NOW USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015

FOR FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SAT MORNING...COLD TEMPERATURES.

THIS IS THE TOUGHEST/MOST CRITICAL PORTION OF THE FCST THIS
CYCLE. 18.12Z MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...AT LEAST AT
500MB...AS THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ENERGY DIGS INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS FRI. MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS STRONGER/BIT
SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH/ENERGY AS IT DIGS INTO/ACROSS THE MID/
UPPER MS VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT...THEN EAST OF THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
STILL PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
ESPECIALLY THE MORE CRITICAL PERIOD FROM FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT
MORNING. GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES AND THEIR IMPACT
ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS PERIOD...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE FRI
THRU SAT NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

WITH STRONG TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI...PATTERN
PROGRESSES RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE AREA ON FRI. MUCH OF FRI TO BE A
COOL DAY WITH MINIMAL WINDS. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
PLAINS ALREADY SPREADS INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT
INTO THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
ALONG WITH FALLING HGTS AND DIVERGENCE/LIFT ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH/SHORTWAVE. ENOUGH SO...THAT BULK OF MODEL PRODUCE
SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE FRI
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE
SNOW...EXCEPT PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ONSET UNTIL THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WOULD QUICKLY COOL ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE ALL SNOW. DEEP LAYERED
LIFTING AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRI NIGHT
KEEPS THE COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT. HOWEVER...BIG QUESTION REMAINS THE
TRACK OF THE STRONGER LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING...DEEPER
MOISTURE AND SATURATION. NAM BRINGS THIS SQUARELY ACROSS THE FCST
AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING...GFS/CAN-GEM ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 WHILE ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE OF THESE 2 CAMPS. 18.15Z
SREF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOWING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE PLACEMENT
OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP AND POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS. UNTIL ALL THIS
DETAIL UNCERTAINTY SETTLES DOWN...WILL STAY NEAR THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
MEAN WITH TRACK PLACEMENT AND SNOW AMOUNTS. THIS WOULD DROP 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA FROM LATER
FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING...2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
1/3 AND 2 INCHES OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH 1/3. HOWEVER...IF ONE OF
THE MORE NORTHERLY/ STRONGER/HEAVIER PRECIP DETERMINISTIC MODELS
IS MORE CORRECT...THE POTENTIAL FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW EXPANDS TO
COVER A GOOD SHARE OF THE FCST AREA. CONSIDERED ISSUING A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATE FRI
AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT/
AMOUNTS...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND GIVE MID CREW AND MODELS
ANOTHER CYCLE TO SETTLE ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS.

BEHIND IT...ANOTHER SHOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FRESH SNOW
COVER...SAT NIGHT LOWS COULD END UP WELL BELOW NORMAL...EVEN COLDER
THAN THE TEENS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS FOR THAT PERIOD. FOR NOW USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT...THEN FAVORED
COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD...SMALL MAINLY RAIN CHANCES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

AFTER THE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING SYSTEM...THE DAY 4-7 PORTION OF THE
FCST IS SHAPING UP RATHER QUIET. 18.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS SUN/MON. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUE AS HGTS
RISE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG TROUGH/ENERGY
PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE WEST COAST. TREND FAVORS STRONGER OF THE
EARLIER RUNS WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z WED.
REASONABLE AGREEMENT CONTINUES WED AS STRONG TROUGHING/MID LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT SPREADS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE
DAY 4-7 PERIOD IS AT LEAST AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ONE SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PASSING
SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA SUN AND ANOTHER PASSING ACROSS THE LK
SUPERIOR AREA MON. THESE 2 DAYS CONTINUE TO TREND DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. AFTER A COOL
DAY SUN...MDT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF/SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
PASSING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR SPREADS INTO/ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT.
NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL TEMP ADVECTIONS OVER THE AREA MON AS A WEAK
TROUGH/FRONT TRAILING THE LK SUPERIOR SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS BRIEF WITH MDT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNING MON NIGHT/TUE
AS THE LEE TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE WESTERN PLAINS AND
THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS WEST AND SOUTHWEST. 925MB TEMPS BY 00Z WED IN
THE +2C TO +5C RANGE. GFS/ECMWF WITH A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...WITH DEEPENING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGHING TO COME THRU THE ROCKIES. GFS IS FASTER/MORE ROBUST ON
SPREADING SFC-700MB MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING...AND
SPREADS PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA FOR TUE NIGHT/WED. WITH LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE +2C UP TO +6C RANGE AT
12Z WED...APPEARS BULK OF ANY PRECIP THESE PERIODS WOULD BE LIGHT
RAIN. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUN TO
NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON-WED APPEARS WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM A CEILING PERSPECTIVE AT
THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 12Z...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...GUSTING IN THE 35 TO 40
KNOT RANGE...WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 45 KNOTS AT KRST. HIGH BASED
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY INTO LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH CONDITIONS SOLIDLY VFR. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE EVENING...AS WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
     019-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 18, 3:27 PM CST, 11 hours 49 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
327 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-MNZ086-087-094-095-192130-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-DODGE-OLMSTED-
MOWER-FILLMORE-
327 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR THE AREA FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM THURSDAY.
STRONG WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. HOWEVER...THE
STORM TRACK AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

RAINFALL AND WIND GUST REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ011-030-MNZ079-088-096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061-
192130-
ALLAMAKEE-CLAYTON-WABASHA-WINONA-HOUSTON-TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-
TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-GRANT-
327 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. HOWEVER...THE
STORM TRACK AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

RAINFALL AND WIND GUST REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

RRS/ROGERS

The office that day

Everything else NWS La Crosse, WI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 19, 3:39 PM CSTWinter Storm WarningARXAllamakee, Chickasaw, Clayton, Fayette, Floyd, Howard and 2 more41 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Watches in Iowa, 2015Winter Storm Watches in Wisconsin, 2015Every winter storm watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.