Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
256 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

TWO PRONGED EVENT TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH BOW ECHO
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH PROVIDING DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERAL SPIN UP
CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE AND QLCS TORNADOES
A DISTINCT POSSIBLITY. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND VERY UNSTABLE
AIR WILL ALLOW IT TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...EXITING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SOME
WEAKER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE WELL DEFINED COMMA
HEAD...BUT DO ANTICIPATE THAT ACTION WILL WANE. FOCUS THEN
BECOMES ON POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
SYSTEM IS LEAVING BEHIND A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL THAT WILL HAVE TO
BE OVERCOME BEFORE NEW STORMS CAN DEVELOP. THERE WILL BE GOOD
DYNAMIC FORCING DUE TO THE POTENT SHORT WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE
FOCUSING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING ACTIVITY WILL SURELY LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN COLD FRONT
WILL BE SURGING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING ALL OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL VIA
SIMULATED RADAR AND/OR PRECIP. OVERALL MOST FAVOR THE NAM SOLUTION
WHICH HAS CONVECTION FIRING ON THE SOUTHERN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AREA...WITH SOME OTHER WEAKER CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. GOING WITH THAT SCENARIO FOR NOW.

FINAL CONCERN IS THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. ONCE
ALL THIS RAIN TAPERS OFF...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. WILL DEFINITELY BE HUMID...
BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL GET MUCH HIGHER
THAN 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE BORDERLINE...AND WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW MUCH RECOVERY WE WILL HAVE...DID NOT
INCLUDE HEAT ADVISORY.

RAIN ACTIVITY WILL ALL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY...WITH A TRANQUIL DAY ANTICIPATED.
BUT WITH OUR REGION STILL ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEARLY ZONAL
WESTERLIES...THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE FLOW LOOKS TO SLIDE THROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE TIMING...SO BROAD BRUSHED RAIN CHANCES
AND STRETCHED INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
FOR MID-WEEK...WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE SPREADING RAIN CHANCES IN
LATER IN THE WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO APPEAR TO BE
AT OR BELOW NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BEARING DOWN ON
KRST/KLSE TAF SITES. EXPECTING THIS LINE TO MOVE THROUGH KRST
AROUND 07Z TIME FRAME AND KLSE IN THE 08-09Z TIME FRAME. PUT IN
TEMPO TS WINDS OF 29030G45KT...BUT COULD GUST HIGHER IF THESE
STORMS MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY. EXPECT DRASTIC TEMPO REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY/CIGS IN THE STORMS AS WELL. A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE
ACTION IN THE MORNING...BUT THEN WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS OFFERING DIFFERING
OPINIONS ON CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...WITH A COUPLE NOT DOING
ANYTHING. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS AT KRST AFTER 17Z AND
KLSE AFTER 19Z. LOOK LIKE COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1120 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

WIZ043-044-181200-
JUNEAU-ADAMS-
1120 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD IMPACT THE AREA BETWEEN 3
AM AND 6 AM. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. IF THE STORMS DEVELOP...HAZARDS
WOULD INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD OCCUR AT TIMES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-MNZ079-086>088-094-095-WIZ032-181200-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-WABASHA-DODGE-
OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-BUFFALO-
1120 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS COULD IMPACT THE AREA BETWEEN 1 AM AND 3
AM. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. IF THE STORMS DEVELOP...HAZARDS
WOULD INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD OCCUR AT TIMES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION  MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 1 AM AND 3 AM.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ011-030-MNZ096-WIZ017-029-033-034-041-042-053>055-061-181200-
ALLAMAKEE-CLAYTON-HOUSTON-TAYLOR-CLARK-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-
LA CROSSE-MONROE-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
1120 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE AREA BETWEEN 2 AM
AND 4 AM. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. IF THE STORMS DEVELOP...HAZARDS
WOULD INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD OCCUR AT TIMES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 2 AM AND 4 AM.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

WETENKAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
230 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MILLVILLE               44.25N 92.30W
07/18/2015                   WABASHA            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 2 IN MILLVILLE. TIME ESTIMATED
            BASED ON RADAR.

&&

WETENKAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
242 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BUFFALO                 44.22N 91.87W
07/18/2015                   BUFFALO            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES DOWN IN BUFFALO. ONE TREE FELL ONTO A
            VEHICLE.

&&

WETENKAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
248 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FOUNTAIN CITY           44.12N 91.70W
07/18/2015                   BUFFALO            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE REPORTED DOWN.

&&

WETENKAMP

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