Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
639 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR THE ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AROUND 2000 J/KG SBCAPE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VIA THE RAP TO HELP POWER THE STORMS.
HOWEVER...RAP/HRRR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO PAINT A SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. SHEAR IS A BIT BETTER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT STILL RELATIVELY MEAGER. RAP PEGS 0-6KM
SHEAR AT 20-25 KTS...MOST OF WHICH IS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. COULD SEE SOME LARGE HAIL...BUT A BUNCH OF
PEA TO 1/2 INCH SIZE MIGHT BE MORE LIKELY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45
KTS ALSO LOOKS REASONABLE. CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHING HIGHER IF BOWING
SEGMENTS START DEVELOPING. MESO MODELS WERE A BIT BEHIND ON THE
DEVELOPMENT/SPEED OF THE CONVECTION...BUT TRENDS AND LATER RUNS
FAVOR CLEARING THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 03Z. MAIN STRONG-SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE THROUGH 7-8 PM.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES A RIGHT TURN AS IT GETS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...TAKING AIM AT THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
WI...AND DEPENDING ON SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...COULD LINGER INTO
WESTERN WI IN THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SOME SMALL POPS LATE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED
WEST COAST RIDGE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO MORE
ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALSO IN FAVOR OF SHUNTING ANY
RIPPLES ON THE FLOW SOUTH/NORTH...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY STRING OF
DAYS. EVEN WED...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH ON
WHETHER TO SPIN A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION...NOW SUGGEST THE SFC
HIGH WILL WIN OUT...KEEPING THAT PIECE OF ENERGY SOUTHWEST. SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANGES MAY CREEP IN A FEW DAYS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...BUT OVERALL...IT LOOKS MORE DRY THAN NOT FROM WED INTO
THE WEEKEND. MONDAY SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STORMY DAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KLSE BUT THE
TRAILING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AIRPORT WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 01Z OR SO.
MUCH DIFFERENT STORY FOR KRST WHERE THE ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS STAYED
TO THE EAST. THE LINE IS SINKING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND COULD
POSSIBLY MISS THE AIRPORT ALL TOGETHER. WILL INCLUDE A VCSH TO
START THE FORECAST AND AMEND IF IT LOOKS LIKE THE STORMS WILL DROP
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...THERE LOOKS TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLSE.
THE 29.21Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHORT PERIOD OF
SATURATION AT THE SURFACE BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...IT COULD TURN INTO MORE STRATUS THAN FOG. THIS WAS THE
TREND IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS. WITH THE
LACK OF RAIN AT KRST SO FAR...WILL BACK OFF AND JUST SHOW A PERIOD
OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT. ONCE THE FOG AND STRATUS BURN OFF
TUESDAY MORNING...SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1145 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-301000-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
1145 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND
BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW SPOTTER GROUPS COULD BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

RIECK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
721 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     HAIL             BLOOMINGTON             42.89N 90.93W
06/29/2015  E0.75 INCH       GRANT              WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
741 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     CASSVILLE               42.72N 90.99W
06/29/2015  E40 MPH          GRANT              WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

0740 PM     HAIL             CASSVILLE               42.72N 90.99W
06/29/2015  E0.25 INCH       GRANT              WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SHEA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
744 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

IAZ029-030-WIZ054-061-300145-
FAYETTE-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-GRANT-
744 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN FAYETTE...
CLAYTON...SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN GRANT COUNTIES...

AT 743 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR OSSIAN TO NEAR HARPERS FERRY...AND MOVING SOUTH
AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GUTTENBERG...ELKADER...POSTVILLE...MONONA...STRAWBERRY
POINT...CASSVILLE...MCGREGOR...GARNAVILLO...ELGIN...
CLERMONT...EDGEWOOD...VOLGA..AND BAGLEY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4264 9176 4308 9175 4309 9105 4266 9081
      4268 9090 4265 9090
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 346DEG 36KT 4307 9172 4315 9107

RIECK