Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
345 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

AT 3 PM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM IRONWOOD MICHIGAN TO ORANGE
IOWA /KORG/. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. MINNEAPOLIS AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP BETWEEN 925 MB
AND 800 MB. IN ORDER TO GET CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE
TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE TO GET INTO THE MID 80S TO BREAK THIS CAP.
IN ADDITION... THE MIXING HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS LOWERED TO AROUND
50. THIS IS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT AT THIS TIME. SURFACE CAPES ARE ONLY IN THE 1000 TO 1500
J/KG RANGE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TO DEVELOP IN OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LEFT SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST JUST IN CASE THE CAP BREAKS A BIT EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

FOR THIS EVENING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID AND UPPER 50
DEW POINTS WILL MOVE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THIS HELPS
THE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMB INTO THE 1 TO 2K RANGE.
MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE 500 TO
1000 J/KG RANGE. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE BEST 0-6 KM
EFFECTIVE SHEAR /40 TO 45 KNOTS/ WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. WITH THE 0-3 KM SHEAR 20 KNOTS...IT IS GOING TO BE HARD
TO KEEP THE GUST FRONT ANCHORED ALONG THE FRONT. THE ONLY THING
REALLY GOING FOR DAMAGING WINDS ARE VERY DRY SUB CLOUD AREA. WITH
SKINNY CAPE SHOWING UP IN THE SOUNDINGS...YOU MAY GET UP TO A
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT MOST. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE MARGINAL TO ISOLATED AT BEST.

OVERNIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE A BAND OF 900 TO
700 MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WITH THE ARW NOT
GENERATING CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE EVENING...THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THIS MODEL TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MESO MODELS USE UP THIS INSTABILITY
BEFORE THIS FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS. OVERALL...THE LATTER MODELS
LOOK TO BE THE PROBABLE SOLUTIONS...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD
THEM.

ON MONDAY...MANY OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST NORTH...BUT WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND DRY DEW POINTS ALREADY BUILDING
SOUTH...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE MODELS SHOW WEAK 850 MB
MOISTURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE BACK NORTH INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WITH LIMITED SHEAR...NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND KEPT THE LOWESTRAIN
CHANCES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TIME PERIOD...STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...DID NOT CHANGE TOO FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECTING A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...MAKING PASSAGE THROUGH KRST
IN THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME...AND IN THE 01Z-05Z TIME FRAME AT KLSE.
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH THE SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WITH
CIGS/VSBY TEMPORARILY DIPPING INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. THERE
REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. LOOK FOR THE FRONT AND SHRA/TS ACTIVITY TO CLEAR
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA IN THE 07-09Z TIME FRAME WITH A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
507 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

IAZ008-MNZ079-086>088-094-095-WIZ017-032-033-041200-
MITCHELL-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-TAYLOR-
BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-
507 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN INTO NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE STORMS LOOK TO
AFFECT THE AREA FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO 8 PM. ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH HAIL TO JUST ABOVE QUARTER SIZED AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME....THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ009>011-018-019-029-MNZ096-WIZ029-034-041>044-053-041200-
HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-HOUSTON-CLARK-
JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-ADAMS-VERNON-
507 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE STORMS LOOK TO
AFFECT THE AREA FROM ABOUT 8 PM /WESTERN AREAS/ TO 11 PM /CENTRAL
WI TO EXTREME EASTERN IA/ AS THEY MOVE EAST.

ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL TO JUST ABOVE QUARTER
SIZED AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL GENERALLY
BE WEAKENING AFTER 9 PM AS THEY MOVE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME....THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ030-WIZ054-055-061-041200-
CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
507 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
THE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AND LIGHTNING
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME....THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

BAUMGARDT

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