River Flood Warning 22, NWS La Crosse, WI

334 
WGUS83 KARX 201554
FLSARX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
954 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

...FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH...

.HIGH WATER CONTINUES ALONG THE YELLOW RIVER AS A RESULT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL LAST WEEK. HERE IS THE LATEST INFORMATION:

&&

WIC057-202343-
/O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0022.151220T1143Z-151221T0306Z/
/NCAW3.1.ER.000000T0000Z.151220T1015Z.151220T2106Z.UU/
954 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
 THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 8:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.1 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL, DROPPING BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE LATER TODAY.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4406 9003 4400 9001 4399 8997 4401 8996 4407 8998

$$

MW

328 
WGUS83 KARX 202224
FLSARX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
423 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH...

.RIVER LEVELS HAVE FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD
WARNING ALONG THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

WIC057-210000-
/O.CAN.KARX.FL.W.0022.151220T1143Z-151221T0306Z/
/NCAW3.1.ER.000000T0000Z.151220T1015Z.151220T2106Z.UU/
423 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH.
* AT 3:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AND DROP BELOW 12
  FEET TUESDAY.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4406 9003 4400 9001 4399 8997 4401 8996 4407 8998

$$

DTJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
331 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING  WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA...AT LEAST WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW
SATURDAY MORNING. EARLY MORNING READINGS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
TO UPPER 30S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TODAY AND INTERACT WITH A TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...GENERATING SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TONIGHT. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCES HAS
REALLY SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF DRIZZLE AND THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED
IN THE LAST THREE MODEL RUNS. ALSO...MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WITH THE LATER ONSET TO THE DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES WOULD EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE
ROAD SURFACES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF
THE DRIZZLE. PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHER WISCONSIN WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR STARTS TO WRAP INTO
THE SYSTEM VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING SO WE WILL THEN
MOST LIKELY SEE A SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. ANY SNOWFALL OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SATURATION TRIES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE LINGER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH. A TROUGH
THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE A SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THIS TROUGH AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. WITH INCREASING WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. WE COULD
THEN SEE A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WRAPS
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A PERSISTENT TROUGH THEN CARVES
OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS PLACING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THIS TROUGH FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
TIMING THESE WAVES. A MODELS CONSENSUS BLEND WAS LEANED TOWARDS
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AFTER THE FIRST
ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES FINALLY EXITS ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT LOOKS TO ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT
THE MODELS REALLY START TO DIVERGE SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IF VERY
LOW GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ON
THE WARM SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW
40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

WILL START BOTH SITES WITH WIND SHEAR AND HAVE IT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 20.00Z NAM AND 20.03Z RAP CAME IN WITH
STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE 20.00Z SOUNDING FROM KOAX
DID SHOW 45 KNOTS AROUND 2500 FEET SO THE WINDS IN THE MODELS MAY
BE PRETTY REASONABLE. THE NAM ALSO CAME IN WITH A SLOWER TREND IN
BRINGING IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS...WHICH THE RAP AGREED WITH...SO PUSHED THESE BACK TO
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS THEN
SHOW THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION DEPTH INCREASING TO AROUND 5000 FEET
WITH SOME LIFT THROUGH THIS FROM THE ONGOING ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE. ADDED IT TO BOTH TAF SITES FOR
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THE NAM AND THE HI-RES MESO MODELS SUGGEST
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD MISS KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
457 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-211100-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
457 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...SOME ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY STAY BELOW
FREEZING LEADING TO ICY SPOTS AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL AT TIMES. ANY
SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PRECIPITATION  REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

WETENKAMP