Wind Chill Advisory 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

280 
WWUS43 KAPX 070303
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1003 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015


MIZ016-019>022-025>028-031>033-071115-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150107T1700Z/
EMMET-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-
KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...
MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
1003 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
WEDNESDAY...

* TIMING...HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE REGION
  OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
  HOURS...THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL MIGRATE FROM
  GAYLORD...MANCELONA...AND FREDERIC...TOWARD KALKASKA...FIFE
  LAKE...AND SUTTONS BAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...COMBINATION OF SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING 
  SNOW WILL RESULT IN LOW VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS 
  TRAVEL. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 
  BELOW AND 25 BELOW ZERO LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A COMBINATION OF SNOW SHOWERS...
BLOWING SNOW AND LOW WIND CHILL READINGS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

MIZ008-015-071115-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150107T1700Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1003 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
WEDNESDAY...

* TIMING...PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
  EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
  PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE WEST HALF OF CHIPPEWA
  AND MACKINAC COUNTIES...INCLUDING PARADISE...TROUT LAKE...AND
  NAUBINWAY. 

* MAIN IMPACT...COMBINATION OF SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING 
  SNOW WILL RESULT IN LOW VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS 
  TRAVEL. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 20 
  BELOW AND 30 BELOW ZERO LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A COMBINATION OF SNOW SHOWERS...
BLOWING SNOW AND LOW WIND CHILL READINGS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

MIZ017-018-023-024-029-030-034>036-041-042-071115-
/O.CON.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.150107T1000Z-150107T1700Z/
CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-
OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...
ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...
TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1003 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WIND CHILL VALUES...WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW
  ZERO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

JZ

594 
WWUS43 KAPX 070854
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

MIZ022-028-071700-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150107T1700Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.150107T1000Z-150107T1700Z/
OTSEGO-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAYLORD...GRAYLING
354 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...AS A BULK OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED OFF TO THE WEST.

* WIND CHILL VALUES OF BETWEEN 15 BELOW AND 25 BELOW ZERO ARE
  EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

MIZ016-019>021-025>027-031>033-071700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150107T1700Z/
EMMET-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...
MANCELONA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...MANISTEE...
CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
354 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

* TIMING...HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
  IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING. A PARTICULARLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
  SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY EXTEND TO THE EAST OF TRAVERSE CITY AND
  CADILLAC.

* MAIN IMPACT...COMBINATION OF SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
  WILL RESULT IN LOW VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLY LOCAL WHITEOUT
  CONDITIONS AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 BELOW AND
  25 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A COMBINATION OF SNOW SHOWERS...
BLOWING SNOW AND LOW WIND CHILL READINGS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

MIZ008-015-071700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150107T1700Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
354 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

* TIMING...PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
  TO IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC
  COUNTIES...INCLUDING PARADISE...TROUT LAKE...AND NAUBINWAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...COMBINATION OF SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING 
  SNOW WILL RESULT IN LOW VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS 
  TRAVEL. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILL READINGS OF BETWEEN 20 BELOW AND 30
  BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A COMBINATION OF SNOW SHOWERS...
BLOWING SNOW AND LOW WIND CHILL READINGS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

MIZ017-018-023-024-029-030-034>036-041-042-071700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.150107T1000Z-150107T1700Z/
CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-
OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...
ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...
TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
354 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WIND CHILL VALUES OF BETWEEN 15 BELOW AND 25 BELOW ZERO ARE
  EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

AJS

562 
WWUS43 KAPX 071441
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
941 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015


MIZ016-019-071700-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150107T1700Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150107T1700Z/
EMMET-CHARLEVOIX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHARLEVOIX
941 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES OF BETWEEN 15 BELOW AND 25 BELOW ZERO ARE 
  EXPECTED THIS MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. 

&&

$$

MIZ008-015-071700-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150107T1700Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150107T1700Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
941 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES OF BETWEEN 20 BELOW AND 30 BELOW ZERO ARE
  EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-021-025>027-031>033-071700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150107T1700Z/
LEELANAU-ANTRIM-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...FRANKFORT...
TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
941 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

* TIMING...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
  IMPACT THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
  HOURS. GREATEST IMPACT WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
  LEELANAU COUNTY DOWN ACROSS GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTY...INCLUDING
  TRAVERSE CITY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AROUND NOON.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN AN INCH PER HOUR COMBINED
  WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW VISIBILITIES
  AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE BETWEEN 10 BELOW AND
  20 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A COMBINATION OF SNOW SHOWERS...
BLOWING SNOW AND LOW WIND CHILL READINGS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036-041-042-071700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150107T1700Z/
CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-
ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...GAYLORD...
ATLANTA...ALPENA...GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
941 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WIND CHILL VALUES OF BETWEEN 15 BELOW AND 25 BELOW ZERO ARE 
  EXPECTED THIS MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

909 
WWUS43 KAPX 071700
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1200 PM EST WED JAN 7 2015


MIZ020-025-026-031>033-071800-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150107T1700Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
1200 PM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 



$$

MIZ008-015>019-022>024-028>030-034>036-041-042-071800-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150107T1700Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE...
PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...CHARLEVOIX...GAYLORD...
ATLANTA...ALPENA...GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1200 PM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. 



$$

MIZ021-027-071900-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-150107T1900Z/
ANTRIM-KALKASKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANCELONA...KALKASKA
1200 PM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS
  ANTRIM AND KALKASKA COUNTIES THROUGH 2 PM. 

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN AN INCH PER HOUR 
  COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW 
  VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND
  15 BELOW ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A COMBINATION OF SNOW SHOWERS...
BLOWING SNOW AND LOW WIND CHILL READINGS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
338 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

OVERVIEW: DEEP TROUGHING/VERY COLD AIR RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN CANADA...DOWNSTREAM OF FAIRLY SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NOAM. SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
ADVANCING OUT OF THE EASTERN LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND
INTERVENING WEDGE OF DRY AIR PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON HAS BROUGHT ABOUT SOME SUNSHINE TO THE REGION...
PARTICULARLY THE SE COUNTIES TOWARD SAGINAW BAY.

MEANWHILE...SECONDARY SFC TROUGH AND LEADING EDGE OF COLDER ARCTIC
AIR IS NOW PRESSING DOWN THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND SLATED TO ARRIVE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...LAKE AGGREGATE
TROUGHING/CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS SRN/SE LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
NORTH SHORE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SEVERAL LAKE BANDS ACROSS SE LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER...WITH ONE BEEFIER BAND
PUSHING DOWN THROUGH NW CHIPPEWA COUNTY.

TONIGHT...SECONDARY SFC TROUGH WILL SAG DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN
USHERING IN ANOTHER BLAST OF FRIGID AIR INTO THE REGION. FORECAST
ISSUES ARE SEVERAL-FOLD. FIRST OFF...LAKE EFFECT. AS SFC TROUGH SAGS
THROUGH AND FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN TIME...THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF BEEFIER LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE SNOW BELTS OF
EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT ITS A RELATIVELY QUICK
SHOT OF LIFT/MOISTURE AND HEAVIER SNOWS...AND WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL
MEAN FLOW...NOT SURE IF ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SNOW BELTS WILL RISE TO
ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA PARTICULARLY AS THERMAL PROFILES FALL BACK
OUT OF THE NICE DGZ RANGE. AREAS AROUND PARADISE WILL COME CLOSE AND
THERE IS SOME HINT IN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE OF A NICE BAND
SETTING UP DOWN THROUGH PARTS OF LEELANAU/ANTRIM/KALKASKA COUNTIES
THAT MAY NUDGE ACCUMULATIONS UP A BIT. BUT OTHERWISE...THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A BIT RESTRAINED.

HOWEVER...ON TOP OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...WILL ALSO HAVE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND LOWERING WIND CHILL READINGS...WITH WIND
CHILLS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH
THOSE COMBINED IMPACTS HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL PICK UP LATE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL (SEE BELOW).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: COLD WITH PERIODS OF WIND AND ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...BECOMING ENHANCED LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SAID WIND AND COLD WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA (-20F
SOUTH/-25F NORTH)...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO AN ISSUE...
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: HMMMM...THIS LOOKS FAMILIAR. THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE AT THE MOMENT HEARKENS BACK STRONGLY TO THE
ONE IN PLACE AT THIS TIME LAST JANUARY...FEATURING STRONG RIDGING
ALONG THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA COAST AND THE ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR UPPER
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. SAID TROUGH IS TRULY
THE GIFT THAT KEEPS ON GIVING...AS IT RELOADS WITH REINFORCING SHOTS
OF DOWNRIGHT BRUTALLY COLD AIR ALOFT. THE FIRST OF THESE IS ARRIVING
AT THE MOMENT...WITH ADDITIONAL COLD AIR BUILDING UP ACROSS NORTHERN
NUNAVUT...AND ON RAILS FOR A GREAT LAKES ARRIVAL HEADING TOWARD
FRIDAY...USHERED IN OF COURSE BY ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

PLENTY TO TALK ABOUT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...SO LET'S GET TO IT.
SETUP CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE EXCELLENT FOR A BAND OR TWO OF QUITE
HEAVY SNOW INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS A PART OF NORTHWEST
LOWER...AS STRONG LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING LAYS OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN
EXCELLENT WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVERHEAD. ABOUT THE ONLY
FAULT TO BE FOUND IS RAPIDLY COOLING THERMAL PROFILES...WITH THE DGZ
BASICALLY AT THE GROUND (OR BELOW!) AND ALMOST THE ENTIRE CLOUD DECK
BELOW -20C (BRRRR!). AS USUAL...THE REAL TRICK IS EXACTLY WHERE THE
BEST CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL RESIDE. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS PEGGED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AN AXIS OF STRONG CONVERGENCE FROM PRETTY MUCH THE
MOUNT PLEASANT AREA NORTHWESTWARD UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...
AND TIED STRONGLY TO EXISTING LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...OF COURSE SUGGESTING A FANTASTIC LAKE SUPERIOR TAP
TO BE HAD. LOWER RES GUIDANCE OF COURSE STRUGGLING TO PINPOINT
THIS...BUT TYPICALLY THESE SETUPS ARE A LITTLE MORE CYCLONICALLY
CURVED THAN WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH SUCH A
STRONG BUBBLE HIGH WRAPPING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL
DEFINITELY BE A NEAR TERM ISSUE AS IT UNFOLDS...BUT OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO PAINT SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES FOR NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
AREAS...WITH AT LEAST THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW STRIPE OF 6+"
IF AND WHERE ANY DOMINANT BAND BECOMES ESTABLISHED. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MECHANICAL MIXING OF 25-35 KNOTS OF FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES NEARING OR SLIDING BELOW
CRITERIA (-20F NORTHERN LOWER...-25F EASTERN UPPER). PLAN TO WRAP
MUCH OF THE AREA INTO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...SAVE FOR THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY REGION WHERE ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILL LEVELS.

THINNING MOISTURE...LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS...AND BACKING FLOW
MORE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST WILL PUT THE KIBOSH ON OVERALL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...WE START TO SEE A
DEEPENING DGZ THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A FEW INCHES OF FLUFF
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE ANY SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST PERSISTENT. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD OF JUST SOME FLURRIES LEFT AFTER 06Z THURSDAY
WITH MOISTURE DEPTH CONFINED BELOW 900MB...BUT AS IT TYPICAL IN
THESE CASES WHERE THE ENTIRE SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTH IS THE DGZ...THOSE
MAY BE OF THE "ACCUMULATING" VARIETY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER AS
THE FLOW SLOWLY BACKS WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THE SUN RISES THURSDAY...WE WILL TURN OUR EYES NORTHWESTWARD TO
ANOTHER CLIPPER/COLD FRONT DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD DRIVE
AN EXPANDING PLUME OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SHALLOW
BUT SUFFICIENT MIXING TO PRODUCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. COUPLE THAT WITH PLENTY OF DRY
SNOW ON THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS...AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVEL THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...SHOULD
SEE A RAPIDLY EXPANDING AXIS OF SNOW SWEEP INTO THE AREA COURTESY OF
QUITE THE SHOT OF UPPER FORCING AND WARM ADVECTION ASCENT.
INTERACTION WITH THE LAKES IS A GIVEN WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE...AND EXPECT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AS THIS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE DECENT
GIVEN A RATHER DEEP DGZ LAYER BISECTED BY TREMENDOUS OMEGA FOR A
TIME...WITH A SEVERAL INCH BURST OF SNOW LIKELY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
NORTHWEST LOWER WHERE THINGS WILL BE MOST ENHANCED. ALL SHOULD
SHOULD GET IN ON SOME SNOW...HOWEVER...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ADDING
TO THE MIX AND LIKELY MAKING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
THINGS DRY OUT ALOFT AS WE TURN COLD AGAIN INTO FRIDAY...WITH LAKE
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING FOR WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS CONTINUES. FRIDAY'S ONGOING WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY BEFORE LES STEERING WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTERLY...THEN WSW BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
FOCUS ANY LIGHT LINGERING SNOW OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT BEFORE A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE ESSENTIALLY WINDS ACTIVITY DOWN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

WITH A RATHER CHILLY AIRMASS STILL OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...EVEN A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

LARGELY A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOWER CIGS/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SNOW
BELTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN (PLN). OF COURSE...APN IS FURTHEST
REMOVED FROM WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT AND MAY STAY VFR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

BUT TONIGHT...SFC TROUGH AND BLAST OF EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
SNOW BELTS...FROM PLN TO TVC AND MBL...FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL REDUCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS. BUT BLOWING SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASE AND TURN
NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS WILL THEN STAY WITH US THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ016-
     019>022-025>028-031>033.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ017-
     018-023-024-029-030-034>036-041-042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ008-015.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ346>349.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
314 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-070815-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
314 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL INVIGORATE THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. MANY AREAS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...PRIMARILY EASTERN
UPPER...FAR NORTHERN...AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND BLOWING SNOW.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAVORED
SNOW BELT REGIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH VERY COLD
WIND CHILLS. THE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THE COLD WEATHER MAY LEAD TO ICE JAM FORMATION ON
AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. AS IS TYPICAL...LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY ICE JAMS THAT FORM.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AMOUNTS OR ICE JAMS AT ANY
TIME. REPORTS MAY BE MADE ONE OF THREE WAYS:

ONLINE:   WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD
FACEBOOK: FACEBOOK.COM/NWSGAYLORD
TWITTER:  TWITTER.COM/NWSGAYLORD

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD.

SMD/AJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
135 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

MIZ008-062045-
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE
135 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

...PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW...

PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
FAR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...NORTH OF M-28...OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS WILL IMPACT
AREAS AROUND WHITEFISH POINT AND PARADISE. IN THOSE AREAS...EXPECT
PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH PER
HOUR.