Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STEADILY EXPANDING IN AREAL
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA LATE THIS MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE SURGES NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE
MARGINAL AREA INTO MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN...ANTICIPATING SOME
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH SOME INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS WELL ALOFT AT THE ANVIL LEVEL. LATEST RAP13 IS
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN BOOSTING MUCAPES THIS
AFTERNOON...APPROACHING 1700 JOULES IN OUR SE CWA. MEANWHILE...THE
LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE UNIMPRESSED WITH THE PROSPECT OF DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION... SUGGESTING CAPES WILL ONLY REACH TO 250-500
JOULES. LATEST NAM12 LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. TEND TO SIDE WITH
THE HRRR GIVEN AMPLE CLOUDS AND PRECIP ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
CWA...INCLUDING OUR SE CWA WHERE THE OTHER TWO MODELS SHOW
GREATEST DESTABILIZATION.

STILL EXPECT SVR CHANCES ARE MINIMAL...BUT WILL CERTAINLY MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA THRU TODAY AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. WILL ALSO KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN...AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ERN UPR MICHIGAN WHERE WE
MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL AS THIS EVENT
PLAYS OUT TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

...WET DAY AHEAD BUT LAST DAY OF HUMIDITY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE
TODAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST/CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND
EXTENDING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND ALONG THE
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.  SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE (1017MB) WAS CENTERED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.  SOUPY
AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND POINTS SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ARC OF 40-50MM
VALUES FROM THE LOWER LAKES/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BACK TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE EASTERN PLAINS.  00Z APX SOUNDING DOES
SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (ON THE ORDER OF 1200J/KG MUCAPE)...A
FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP SOUTH OF M-32 LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS OVERALL WIND FLOW IS LIGHT
BELOW 700MB...WITH A ROUGE SHOWER OVER LUCE COUNTY.  MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL HAS BEEN CONGEALING OVER THE MIDWEST.

DIFFUSE FRONT LYING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY
STATIONARY TODAY...BUT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.  STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER LAKES TONIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT TO SLICE ACROSS MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND FINALLY KNOCK DOWN
THIS PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIR MASS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: DETAILS REGARDING RAINFALL OVER NEXT 24
HOURS.

TODAY...LOOKS LIKE TODAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD...AS
COMBINATION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY POPPING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
ARRIVAL LATER THIS MORNING OF UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.  AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRETTY
EFFICIENT GIVEN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.50-2.00
INCHES EXPECTED AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER).  GENERAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00 INCH EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION
THOUGH THAT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN RATHER WEAK FOCUSING
MECHANISMS.

TONIGHT...COUPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT.  LAST
OF THE DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING INTO LAKE HURON DURING
THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS...AND GIVEN LIGHT FLOW WILL PROBABLY BE
FOLLOWED BY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.  APPROACH OF SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AS WELL AS RIGHT ENTRANCE
JET FORCING MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS
FRONT PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

(9/9)WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER AND NOW HAVE THE RAIN OUT
OF THE AREA. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MICHIGAN
AND HOLDS THROUGH THE DAY AND MOST OF THE NIGHT. A SFC TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM
IN MINNESOTA, AND ALONG THE THERMAL GRADIENT RUNNING THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR, BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WHICH BEGINS TO PRODUCE RAIN TO THE
WEST, IN WISCONSIN. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN SHOULD
STAY WEST, AS THE NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS.

(9/10)THURSDAY...THE SFC RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
PUSHES, THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY
SMALL, AND SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER, WILL KEEP THAT AT THIS POINT, BUT GETTING THE FEELING
WITH THE COOLER SFC TEMPERATURES (IN THE LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY) THAT THERE WON'T BE REALLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER.
THEN OVERNIGHT, THE RAIN SHOWERS, OR MAYBE IT WILL JUST BE AN AREA
OF RAIN, SET UPS WAS THE SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSIVELY MOVES IN, COLDER 850 MB AIR CONTINUES
INTO THE REGION AS WELL SO THAT WE WILL PROBABLY SET UP LAKE EFFECT
RAIN, ALTHOUGH WITH THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WIND OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST, WE'LL STAY OUT OF IT INITIALLY UNTIL FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME
TOGETHER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DIGGING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF ISN'T AS DEEP OR CUT OFF AND THE GFS
IS A LITTLE DEEPER. THE ECMWF DOES PUSH THE RAIN THROUGH FASTER AS
WELL AS THE CUT OFF SO THAT THE TIMING THE END OF THE RAIN ON FRIDAY
IS PRETTY CLOSE AND THAT THE COOL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY, TOO, LOOKS DRY, AND THEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE REGION ON THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHILE THE ECMWF IS
DRY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. ONE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR FRIDAY...THERE IS A
LOW END THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS WITH AN UPPER LOW, DELTA TS OF 16C
AND CLOUD DEPTHS OF 5000-10000 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
EARLY EVENING AS A VIGOROUS WAVE SLIDES THRU THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR...WITH
SOME BRIEF MOMENTS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. ALL PRECIP SHOULD END BY
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. ANY AMOUNT OF CLEARING AFTER THE PRECIP
ENDS WILL VERY TEMPORARY AS AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOP
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THANKS TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION AND DIURNAL MIXING LENDS A HAND AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ONLY MARINE ISSUE
WILL BE POOR VISIBILITY IN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY WITHIN NORTHERN LAKE HURON ZONES WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE...
MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JPB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
452 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-091100-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
452 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT IS MINIMAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT RAINFALL
REPORTS ARE ALWAYS ENCOURAGED.

REPORTS MAY BE MADE ONE OF THREE WAYS:

ONLINE:   WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

FACEBOOK: FACEBOOK.COM/NWSGAYLORD

TWITTER:  TWITTER.COM/NWSGAYLORD

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD.

JPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
932 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE MIO               44.65N 84.12W
09/08/2015  M1.77 INCH       OSCODA             MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL. CO-OP OBSERVER STATION MIO
            WWTP /MYOM4/

&&

ALM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
933 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N MIO                 44.68N 84.13W
09/08/2015  M1.05 INCH       OSCODA             MI   MESONET

            24 HOUR TOTAL. MESONET STATION 1 N MIO
            /MMOM4/

&&

ALM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1233 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

MIZ015>028-031>033-081945-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. IGNACE...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...
ROGERS CITY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...
ATLANTA...ALPENA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
1233 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

...BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR AT
TIMES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY REACH ONE TO TWO INCHES BY THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVE WITH HEADLIGHTS ON...AND BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

MSB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
148 PM EDT TUE SEP 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CENTRAL LAKE            45.07N 85.26W
09/08/2015  M1.81 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   SPOTTER

            3 HR TOTAL THROUGH 2 PM.

&&

MBOGUTH