Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Gaylord, MI

095 
WWUS53 KAPX 022222
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
622 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MIC019-101-022300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-150802T2300Z/
BENZIE MI-MANISTEE MI-
622 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BENZIE AND MANISTEE COUNTIES...

AT 620 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR COPEMISH TO 6 MILES NORTH OF LUDINGTON...MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. AT 614 PM...TRAIN SPOTTERS 
REPORTED TREES DOWN AND ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN 
THE CITY OF MANISTEE. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANISTEE...THOMPSONVILLE...EASTLAKE...KALEVA...ONEKAMA...COPEMISH...
BRETHREN...NORWALK...PARKDALE...WELLSTON...DUBLIN...WALLIN...STAR
CROSSING AND PERE MARQUETTE STATE FOREST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4420 8637 4457 8601 4457 8582 4417 8582
      4418 8638
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 289DEG 48KT 4445 8596 4405 8642 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MSB

631 
WWUS53 KAPX 022239
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
639 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MIC019-101-022249-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-150802T2300Z/
BENZIE MI-MANISTEE MI-
639 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BENZIE AND
MANISTEE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4420 8637 4457 8601 4457 8582 4417 8582
      4418 8638
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 289DEG 29KT 4445 8596 4405 8642 

$$

MSB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
402 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR AVIATORS. A WARM/HUMID AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS FUELING PERIODS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY MANY OF THESE
STORMS.

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
03-07Z TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN SCT-BKN SC/CU LIFT TO
VFR THRESHOLD. COOLER NW BREEZES EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
     016-019>021-025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
349 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-032000-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
349 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON TONIGHT..

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL... AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

SEE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MORE INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION...DANGEROUS SWIM CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ALONG THE BEACHES
OF LAKE MICHIGAN...DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS
CURRENTS...AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY.

WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. REPORTS MAY BE
MADE ONE OF THREE WAYS:

ONLINE:   WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD
FACEBOOK: FACEBOOK.COM/NWSGAYLORD
TWITTER: TWITTER.COM/NWSGAYLORD

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
509 PM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             6 E WEST BRANCH         44.28N 84.11W
08/02/2015  M1.00 INCH       OGEMAW             MI   SPOTTER

&&

GILLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
518 PM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CADILLAC                44.25N 85.42W
08/02/2015                   WEXFORD            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON WRIGHT AND LAKE STREES
            IN CADILLAC.

&&

GILLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
521 PM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             7 N WEST BRANCH         44.38N 84.24W
08/02/2015  E4.25 INCH       OGEMAW             MI   PUBLIC

&&

AMAYHEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
523 PM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 E PRESCOTT            44.19N 83.77W
08/02/2015                   IOSCO              MI   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF TREES DOWN

&&

AMAYHEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S FREDERIC            44.76N 84.73W
08/02/2015                   CRAWFORD           MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS 50-100 TREES DOWN TWO MILES
            SOUTH OF FREDERIC.

&&

GILLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
538 PM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             MOORESTOWN              44.47N 84.95W
08/02/2015  M1.75 INCH       MISSAUKEE          MI   SPOTTER

            REPORT AND PICTURES RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GILLEN