Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Amarillo, TX

448 
WWUS54 KAMA 081923
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
223 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

TXC087-081933-
/O.EXP.KAMA.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-150508T1930Z/
COLLINGSWORTH TX-
223 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLLINGSWORTH
COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 230 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 3474 10000 3475 10028 3509 10001 3509 9999
      3475 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 218DEG 35KT 3488 9992

$$

CLK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
143 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF LARGE HAIL THREAT IN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY...NEAR
TERM SEVERE CHANCES ARE DIMINISHING QUICKLY OVER THE PANHANDLES.
WE'VE CANCELLED THE WRN EDGE OF THE TORNADO WATCH, INCLUDING
AMARILLO, AND THE REST WILL MOST LIKELY BE CANCELLED IN SHORT ORDER.

IN SPITE OF VERY MINIMAL SYNOPTIC FORCING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
A FEW STORMS COULD REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN NM OR IN THE
FAR W TX PANHANDLE IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE BTW THE
DRYLINE, COLD FRONT, AND OUTFLOW. IF ANYTHING FORMS IT WILL PROBABLY
STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT BACK INTO THE OUTFLOW DOMINATED AIRMASS
ENCOMPASSING A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLES.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND
DURATION OF CONVECTION...CIGS AND VSBYS IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED BUT LOW CLOUDS
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE
AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. SO EXPECT MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG CAN REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT BUT SHOULD LIFT MID MORNING SATURDAY. ONGOING TSRA AT KAMA
SHOULD END BY 20Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE DRYLINE MIXES FURTHER TO THE EAST. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECAST ATTM.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO ALL
WEATHER ELEMENTS...TIMING...AND TSTM POTENTIAL TODAY. AREAS OF FOG
AND IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AROUND LATE MORNING. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...TIMING OF THIS IS PROBLEMATIC. AS FOR TSTM PROSPECTS...THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE...BUT DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER ANY
ONE TAF SITE WILL BE IMPACTED....HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THAT ELEMENT
OUT OF THIS FCST CYCLE. CIGS SHOULD LOWER ONCE AGAIN AROUND OR AFTER
06Z SAT. CONSIDERING THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FCST...AMENDMENTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/

UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. SATURATED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 10 AM
MAINLY SOUTH OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
DROPPED A BIT SINCE YESTERDAY...RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS 12 DEGREE
CENTIGRADE 850 MB DEWPOINTS LYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH.  JET STREAK
EMERGING FROM BASE WILL PROVIDE DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO PROMOTE LARGE-
SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  DRYLINE EXPECTED TO
MAKE A SLOW MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF
DRYLINE.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY FOR MAINLY EASTERN AREAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO ADEQUATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.  FLOOD
WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE ON SATURDAY...AS IT
WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY PACIFIC COLD FRONT.  STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.  DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT
CLEAR THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH SATURDAY EVENING EXPECTED TO BE
DRY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.  HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED GUIDANCE
WITH THUNDERSTORM POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

09/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
110 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-082100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
110 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG
OR SEVERE WITH GOLF BALL HAIL...WINDS ABOVE 60 MPH...ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. IN FACT A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL 9 PM CDT.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. IF STORMS FORM...THEY COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION TODAY...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

CLK