Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
307 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RE-POSTING THE AFD SECTION CONCERNING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR
TODAY. LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

WE WILL PERFORM A SPECIAL BALLOON RELEASE AT 18Z. INITIAL CONCERN IS
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND
ONGOING CLOUDS/SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. FURTHER EAST WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER SURFACE DIABATIC HEATING AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL MOIST
ADVECTION IS OCCURING. 12Z OBSERVED KAMA SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE YIELDS MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. ONE
OF THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES NOW IS TO WHAT DEGREE WE MIX OUT AND
IMPLICATIONS THAT WILL HAVE FOR INSTABILITY. MOISTURE IS PROBABLY
QUITE SHALLOW BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPENING WITH TIME.
LATEST WEST TEXAS MESONET OBS SHOW LOW 60 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINTS
UP STREAM IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RAP AND OTHER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SEEM TO BE TOO WEAK AND SLIGHTLY
MISPLACED WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...HENCE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISOLLOBARIC RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEN IN REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS AREA MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST AS WELL. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 25 KNOTS. WITH SUCH LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 8500 FEET AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF A
TORNADO WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS RESULTING IN STRONGER 0-1KM
SHEAR.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS DURATION. WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING SO WILL THE THREAT OF CONVECTION. A
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT.

BRB

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE
RISK FOR STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SATURDAY THE LOW CONTINUES ITS
TRACK AND SOME MODELS PLACE THE PANHANDLES WITH THE DRY SLOT OF THIS
SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. HAVE KEPT VERY LOW END POPS FOR THIS AREA BUT IF THIS DRY
SLOT TREND CONTINUES THEN WE COULD BE PRECIP FREE ON SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND BRINGS OFF AND ON
PRECIP CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO BE LIMITED NEXT WEEK TO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES. THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA COULD
MITIGATE THESE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FUELS COULD BECOME
UNSUPPORTIVE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                49  73  46  74  45 /  50  20  10  20  10
BEAVER OK                  54  75  49  76  47 /  70  60  60  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              43  68  41  68  42 /  50  20  20  30  10
BORGER TX                  53  75  48  75  48 /  50  30  20  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              45  73  43  74  45 /  40  10  10  20  10
CANYON TX                  46  72  44  74  45 /  40  20  10  20   5
CLARENDON TX               54  74  52  77  48 /  60  50  20  20  10
DALHART TX                 43  70  41  70  42 /  40  10  20  20  10
GUYMON OK                  51  73  44  73  45 /  50  30  40  30  20
HEREFORD TX                42  72  42  74  42 /  30  10  10  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                55  74  52  76  49 /  70  60  50  30  30
PAMPA TX                   52  73  49  74  45 /  60  40  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                56  75  55  77  50 /  70  60  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              58  77  56  80  52 /  60  60  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

99/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
255 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-170800-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
255 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR
SIZE AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THIS TIME IS LOW.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NOT RECEIVING
WETTING RAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY ON FRIDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES SHOULD BE ALERT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ON FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     HAIL             1 W AMARILLO            35.20N 101.83W
04/16/2015  M1.00 INCH       POTTER             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500331

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
301 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             2 SW AMARILLO           35.18N 101.84W
04/16/2015  M1.75 INCH       POTTER             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT 34TH AND WASHINGTON

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500330

GARCIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
303 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     HAIL             AMARILLO                35.20N 101.82W
04/16/2015  E1.00 INCH       POTTER             TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500332

BEAT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
304 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

TXZ017-162030-
RANDALL TX-
304 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN RANDALL COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM CDT...

AT 302 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CANYON...MOVING NORTH AT 25
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CANYON...             LAKE TANGLEWOOD...    TIMBERCREEK CANYON...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS... AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3509 10190 3505 10168 3483 10176 3488 10197
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 197DEG 20KT 3495 10183

SIMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
306 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 PM     HAIL             4 SSE GRAY              36.50N 100.80W
04/16/2015  E1.00 INCH       BEAVER             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500333

BEAT

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